North Korea's nukes

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  • I agree. The idea that Trump and Kim are going to have a cosy little tête-à-tête by the fireside discussing hairstyles, or indeed, nuclear disarmament is risible.


    History shows that every time the NK's "give" they continue to beaver away in the background.


    The best way of dealing with a trap is knowing of its existance.

    History is much like an Endless Waltz. The three beats of war, peace and revolution continue on forever.

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  • What did encourage me last night was that as soon as the announcement was made about the meeting between Kim and Trump, the Americans put out a separate statement saying that sanctions would remain.


    Kim has nuclear weapons. Kim has ballistic missile technology. He just needs to put the two together and it can only be a matter of time and not much time at that, before he succeeds.


    As China is till supporting him in the background too, it's clear that despite their public statements, they seem content to keep "their" man, as they seem to see it, going.


    By all means the Americans should talk to Kim, but they should also set a deadline (which the North Korean's won't abide by) that if the nuclear weapons programme doesn't stop and does start to be dismantled, then even more sanctions or worse, will follow.

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  • Just thought I'd stick my head into this thread to say "I told you so" but then I felt I was above all that and decided not to...


    So Kim has secured his survival and is now ready to start rebuilding his wealth, China secured its border & its regional ally and somehow Trump has convinced his followers the US has won a great victory!


    Everyone is happy. Oh...apart from N Korean citizens but unfortunately no one cares about them.

  • What Trump is doing with NK is a whole lot better than nothing. None of the usual red line crap.


    Lots of countries have nuclear weapons. It's a matter of agreeing to restrain and contain. Both the US and NK will claim victory. That's part of the game of saving face.


    Is there anybody on in this forum or in the West who might grudgingly concede that Trump has addressed the NK threat effectively? The last thing the world needs is yet another leader who acts "presidentially" and "diplomatically", where the verbal content is unfathomable or meaningless.

  • Trump didn't do anything wrong but it seems weird the credit people are giving him. What's he actually achieved? Kim is secure in power with nukes that can hit the US mainland (maybe). Kim has not been restrained or contained - he never had any intention to do anything except guarantee himself long term security. He's done that. No one could have stopped him so I'm not criticising Trump for failing to do that, but I'm struggling to find a Trump victory here. The N Koreans blow hot and cold all the time, just having talks is hardly anything new. They will probably result in a return to a better relationship with NK and the rest of the world, but again this is nothing new. It is a sign that Kim no longer feels under threat, nothing to do with anyone else. In fact the N Koreans predicted years ago in one of their propaganda films that their nuclear programme would draw a US president to the negotiating table.


    I think the similarity between the two blokes might bode well in the future though, they may well get on. I doubt Kim and Clinton would ever have got on... Even so I can't imagine Kim ever giving up his nukes or treating his people like human beings. If someone achieves that then it's time to crack open the champagne. At the moment all I'm seeing is the inevitable (and just as I predicted) - Kim proves his nuke/missile capability, feels secure, starts to re-engage again. Admittedly Trump didn't fuck anything up but I didn't think he would, and surely he has to do more than that to be praised??

  • Admittedly Trump didn't fuck anything up but I didn't think he would, and surely he has to do more than that to be praised??

    Can't we temporarily suspend our doubts and prejudices until we learn the outcome of the meeting? Otherwise we are no better than the rabble-rousing media. None of us know what makes Kim tick I agree, it's difficult to trust someone with that kind of haircut!

  • Can't we temporarily suspend our doubts and prejudices until we learn the outcome of the meeting? Otherwise we are no better than the rabble-rousing media. None of us know what makes Kim tick I agree, it's difficult to trust someone with that kind of haircut!

    I'm the neutral one, what I'm on about is my puzzlement over the Trump worship. Anyway it's no big deal, I keep forgetting most people don't think rationally.

  • I'm the neutral one, what I'm on about is my puzzlement over the Trump worship. Anyway it's no big deal, I keep forgetting most people don't think rationally.

    Trump worship? You surely mean Trump sneering (apart from American rednecks plus those running on dry in the rust belt plus those rational enough to put substance before image).

  • Just thought I'd stick my head into this thread to say "I told you so" but then I felt I was above all that and decided not to...

    Told you so, what??:/


    Kim still has his nuclear bombs and ballistic missiles, he just hasn't put the two together yet.


    So Kim has secured his survival

    He's done nothing of the sort, I don't understand how you could come to that conclusion.


    Crippling sanctions are still in effect and at least one carrier strike group is off his coast. Hardly secure.

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  • Is there anybody on in this forum or in the West who might grudgingly concede that Trump has addressed the NK threat effectively?

    Not from me, because he hasn't!


    As said, Kim still has nuclear bombs and ballistic missile techoinolgy, he just hasn't managed to miniaturise the nukes to stick them on missiles yet.

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  • It will be interesting to see how the meeting will go, also interesting to see where it happens and who if anyone oversees it to make sure it remains amicable.


    I for one think it's better they meet face to face to discuss things diplomatically, rather than just trading insults via social media.

    Young boys in the park jumpers for goalpost that's what footballs all about isn't it.

  • Trump could take his big red button and his rocket man album along to the meeting as gifts for Kim, I'm sure that will go down well!^^


    Seriously, though, as I said Ron, I think the North Koreans are just playing for time here. I hope I'm wrong and they sign a deal to get rid of their nuclear weapons, but it's something they have been working on for 40 years, so I doubt it.

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  • Maybe they will exchange hair grooming tips. :D

    Young boys in the park jumpers for goalpost that's what footballs all about isn't it.

  • Told you there'd be no conflict and that it would calm down once Kim had felt he'd proven his capabilities.


    Of course he's secure. Sanctions won't affect him and coming from his new position of power he'll whittle a few away anyway, certainly from China if not from the USA.

  • He hasn't proven his capabilities. He hasn't miniatured the nukes yet, to be placed on missiles. Once he does that, then it's a different story. I just don't agree with you that he's secure, he's just playing for time. There are always lulls before the next flare up,. this is one of them.


    Hoxton, do you really believe that after four decades of trying to create nuclear weapons, NK will simply stop now, when they are so close to their end goal? My answer to my own question, is a big NO.

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  • Trump didn't do anything wrong but it seems weird the credit people are giving him. What's he actually achieved? Kim is secure in power with nukes that can hit the US mainland (maybe). Kim has not been restrained or contained - he never had any intention to do anything except guarantee himself long term security. He's done that. No one could have stopped him so I'm not criticising Trump for failing to do that, but I'm struggling to find a Trump victory here. The N Koreans blow hot and cold all the time, just having talks is hardly anything new. They will probably result in a return to a better relationship with NK and the rest of the world, but again this is nothing new. It is a sign that Kim no longer feels under threat, nothing to do with anyone else. In fact the N Koreans predicted years ago in one of their propaganda films that their nuclear programme would draw a US president to the negotiating table.


    I think the similarity between the two blokes might bode well in the future though, they may well get on. I doubt Kim and Clinton would ever have got on... Even so I can't imagine Kim ever giving up his nukes or treating his people like human beings. If someone achieves that then it's time to crack open the champagne. At the moment all I'm seeing is the inevitable (and just as I predicted) - Kim proves his nuke/missile capability, feels secure, starts to re-engage again. Admittedly Trump didn't fuck anything up but I didn't think he would, and surely he has to do more than that to be praised??

    I think you're right that people are crediting Trump prematurely. These days people tend to switch from a definite big plus to a definite big minus at the slightest provocation, without nuance and without waiting for the outcome.


    I think when Nixon went to China and engaged with them, that was a plus. The outcome was - and still is - hard to define but it had to do with an understanding of one another's position, of cooperating where possible rather than maintaining a position of blind fear, complete distrust or unbridled resentment.


    If Trump's meeting with NK can achieve that, then the world will be a safer place. One has to give Trump a provisional plus for being willing to meet up with NK.


    It certainly hasn't helped that the media misrepresents the true position, aided by politicians who are incapable of stating anything without deliberate ambiguities and caveats. In this case NK never promised to de-nuke. It was South Korea that misrepresented NK's true position, which is that it would refrain from nuclear and missile testing while engaging in talks with SK about de-nuking and normalising relations. Moreover, NK clarified that it had no reason to retain nuclear weapons if the military threat to it is resolved and security can be guaranteed. Granted,this clarification doesn't amount to much when the reality is that (1) US has a strong military presence in SK, (2) China, which is now a more a dictatorship than a budding democracy, could turn from being a passive neighbour into a would-be conqueror.


    Given those circumstances, why should NK de-nuke? After all, the nuke club membership now comprises the US, China, France, Russia, UK, India, Pakistan, probably Israel and maybe Iran. From NK's perspective, why shouldn't they be eligible for possessing nuke capabilities? There are three answers to that rhetorical question:


    Eligibility (1) For deterrence or defence rather than unprovoked attack: NK fails that eligibility test, in both action and words, by indulging in significant sabre-rattling against the United States, specifically implying that they have developed nuclear and missile capabilities that can reach the US. It has stated and demonstrated this capability several times. There is a blurred line between mischievous provocation, a stated ambition and actual intent. The stakes are too high for the US to brush aside such a threat without taking preemptive action. Obama-ish red lines are not enough. I believe Trump has been absolutely right to call NK's hand.


    Eligibility (2) Where the nuclear capabilities are in safe hands: This is a corollary of (1). NK's actions and words are attributable to its dictator-leader who is exercising or prevailing over acts of inhumanity that beggar the imagination and his behaviour calls into question his mental stability to have his finger on the nuclear button.


    Eligibility (3): Where the nation's citizens are amenable to or accept global co-existence rather than brainwashed, cowered or naturally disposed to destroying actual or imagined threats from other nations generally and America in particular. All the evidence points to NK being entirely ineligible in this regard. The American-North Korean war was a massacre for North Koreans and it has affected North Koreans' attitudes to America ever since.


    In the short term I think Trump's meeting with NK has a chance of successfully addressing Eligibility (1), which would also lessen our concern about Eligibility (2). Only time will tell. As for Eligibility (3), I would hope that tackling (1) and (2) would automatically, over time, lead to sunny uplands for NK citizens. The downside might be that most NK citizens are ideologically dyed-in-the-wool anti-American and it might take several years of trading to shift from hated enemy to dear enemy/detente cordiale.

  • US President Donald Trump has said he is keen to meet Kim Jong-un after being told the North Korean leader's trip to China "went very well".

    But Mr Trump said maximum sanctions and pressure on North Korea would continue ahead of proposed talks in May.

    He added that denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula was now a possibility.

    The comments follow Mr Kim's meeting with China's President Xi Jinping, in his first known foreign trip since taking office in 2011.

    It was quite noticeable on the tv news when it showed Kim taking notes when the Chinese president was speaking. A clear show of being totally subordinate to the Chinese. Normally it's everyone else around Kim taking the notes.


    This is all about China and probably always was. The Chinese don't want American troops near their border, so supported NK's nuclear ambitions, up until the point that they themselves may be threaded by NK too. But after four decades and almost at the point of miniaturising nuclear bombs to put on ballistic missiles, will NK just denuclearise itself to appease their Chinese masters? I'm not so sure they will.

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  • North Korean leader Kim Jong-un says he has suspended all missile tests and will shut down a nuclear test site.

    "From 21 April, North Korea will stop nuclear tests and launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles," the country's state news agency said.

    Has Trump pulled a blinder here and brought peace to the Korean peninsula, or is rocketman just playing for time as he secretly continues his nuclear weapons programme?

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  • Has Trump pulled a blinder here and brought peace to the Korean peninsula, or is rocketman just playing for time as he secretly continues his nuclear weapons programme?

    I think it's Kim who has pulled the blinder. Now he can get the sanctions imposed on NK lifted. Secondly Kim wants to unify north and south Korea. He has been very successful in proving his initial argument, that he wanted nuclear weapons because no one is going to invade a nuclear power. He is now safe from any USA ambitions to get more influence in the area. There are about 24,000 US service personnel in South Korea. They are now emasculated, not needed for defence or attack and not serving any useful purpose. So he has already has removed a lot of US influence. Now with friendly overtures to South Korea and a better relationship with China, Russia and the USA on the cards, he is well on the way to ensuring NK becomes a real power in the world.


    Meanwhile Donald and USA can pat themselves on the back and convince themselves that it is they who have brought about the change of heart.


    Kim is a genius.

  • He's a fat murdering twerp, but I agree Morgan, that thus far, things appear to be going his way.


    I don't think South Korea would ever want to reunify with the north while Kim is in power. Look at the millions that have starved or been sent to gulags under his family's stewardship of the country.


    I still think Kim is playing for time, while he miniaturizes nuclear bombs to put on missiles.

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  • The leaders of North and South Korea have agreed to work to rid the peninsula of nuclear weapons after holding a historic summit.

    The announcement was made by the North's Kim Jong-un and Moon Jae-in of South Korea after talks at the border.

    The two also agreed to push towards turning the armistice that ended the Korean War in 1953 into a peace treaty this year.

    Their findings raise questions about Kim Jong-un’s announcement his country was ceasing its testing programme ahead of planned meetings with the US president, Donald Trump, and his South Korean counterpart, Moon Jae-in.

    Ah, fluffy bunnies all around. The murderous, fat, psycho twerp has seen the "light" and decided that a peaceful solution to a problem his family created decades ago is the best way to go now. TOTAL rubbish!


    Kim is playing for time, as I keep saying. He was within a stone's throw of finalising his nuclear weapons. I gather from reading various articles, that the sending up of the missiles wasn't the problem, it was the targetting and re-entry that still needed work.


    He is playing for time pretending to be the great peacemaker while he has this problem to resolve:

    North Korea’s main nuclear test site has collapsed following its latest bomb test and could be at risk of leaking radiation, research by Chinese geologists has shown.

    As a result, the Punggye-ri site under Mount Mantap has been rendered unsafe for further testing and should be monitored, scientists from the University of Science and Technology of China have said.

    Their findings raise questions about Kim Jong-un’s announcement his country was ceasing its testing programme ahead of planned meetings with the US president, Donald Trump, and his South Korean counterpart, Moon Jae-in.

    This test site was mentioned earlier in the thread, that it might collapse and the Chinese were worried about radiation leaking onto their side. That is what is happening now. The Chinese have warned Kim about this and until he can sort out another test site, he'll continue the charade for six month, a year perhaps, until his doomsday weapons programme is back on track.


    Will Trump fall for this nonsense or not? I guess we'll find out in a few months when Trump meets the dear leader, or is great leader, I can never remember.

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  • It's difficult to believe Kim has had a complete change of heart unles the Chinese leant very heavily on him when he visited. The potential collapse of Mount Mantap and the consequent radioactive contamination of a substantial area of Chinese land could have made the Chinese finally read the riot act. I guess we wait and see.


    I'm sure the Americans will be poring over their satellite imagery to see if any other sites for testing are being established.

    History is much like an Endless Waltz. The three beats of war, peace and revolution continue on forever.

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  • I think the Chinese did lean heavily on him Heero. Do you remember the pictures that came out of Kim taking notes while the Chinese leader was speaking? Totally subservient move. It's usually people around Kim who do the note taking while he does the dictation.


    It will all go quiet now after all these "pledges." I do not believe for a second that NK's nuclear activities will stop and that their facilities would be dismantled. Of course, if the facilities were put beyond use, that would be a significant move, but this is all just show.


    I watched the two leaders meeting live last night/early this morning and I think the South Koreans are just going along with the charade for now. They have the most to lose out of this if it all goes sour.

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  • Trump I hope won't really fall for it but might as well play along. There's nothing else he can do anyway. Everyone is playing the game nicely at the moment, and only the N Korean citizens are losing out.

  • But to what end Hoxton? All it does is give Kim time to complete his weapons programme.


    North Korea has freed three US citizens from prison, according to a tweet from US President Donald Trump.

    It is viewed as a goodwill gesture ahead of a historic summit between Mr Trump and North Korea's Kim Jong-un.

    Mr Trump said he would greet the men when they return with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who has been in Pyongyang to arrange the planned talks.

    And with this latest news, my view is, so what? What has changed?


    Unless NK dismantles or destroys its nuclear facilities and I exclude the one they have announced that they will shut down, as that is a red herring as the facility was destroyed by a earthquake anyway. I simply don't believe any of this guff coming out of NK.

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  • US President Donald Trump will meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore on 12 June, he has said.

    In April, Mr Trump stunned the world by accepting an invitation to meet Mr Kim in an unprecedented sit-down.

    The pair had previously exchanged insults and threats. The breakthrough came after landmark talks between North and South Korea.

    The date is set.


    Lets hope Trump can tone down his Twitter use until then!

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  • North Korea says it will begin dismantling its nuclear test site in less than two weeks in a ceremony attended by foreign journalists.

    Pyongyang said it was taking "technical measures" to carry out the process between 23-25 May, North Korean state news agency KCNA reported on Saturday.

    Scientists previously said the site may have partially collapsed in September.

    And what about their other sites?:rolleyes:


    I hope Trump doesn't fall for this charade, but knowing his ego, he may.

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  • I doubt Trump will be tricked. I often think that his OTT tweets are to create the image that he is liable to react very strongly, and then once everyone is rushing up and down and panicking he comes out with a more sensible suggestion that would have been rejected initially, but is immediately accepted as 'not being as bad as it could be'.


    I think he is quite a clever strategist, and he does get results ... mostly! Whether you agree with those results is a different matter.

    Mark Twain — 'Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.'

  • As far as results, lets see. Too premature to say yet.

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  • North Korea has cancelled Wednesday's high-level talks with South Korea because of anger over its joint military exercises with the US.

    The North's official KCNA news agency said the exercises were a "provocation" and a rehearsal for an invasion.

    What a surprise. NOT! At least Trump is keeping the pressure on Kim. Smart move.

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