Will North Korea's nuclear expansion be stopped?

  • North Korea has conducted another missile test, Japanese and South Korean officials say.


    The missile appeared to land in the sea off Japan, the Japanese national broadcaster NHK said.

    New N.Korea missile launch

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    I suggest that the fat twerp running North Korea has not only just slit his own throat, but has done the same for his whole country.


    They were warned by Trump, let's see if the Americans do anything. Unlike Obama, Trump, as he has demonstrated in Syria, will use force. The big question is, what will the reaction be from China, if any, to an American attack on North Korea?


    Of course, the other big story today also involves another crackpot regime with missiles:



    Iran says it has successfully tested a rocket that can deliver satellites into orbit, days after the US imposed new economic sanctions on Tehran over its ballistic missile programme.


    The Phoenix rocket was launched from a new space centre in Semnan in northern Iran.


    The US criticised the launch and described it as a provocative action.

    Iran satellite launch

    ====


    Satellites one day, nuclear warheads the next...


    The Iranians are very advanced with their technology and I reckon this is just a cover to test out their nuclear launch capabilities.

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  • Aljazeera is reporting, quote, "the winds of war are stirring in Washington."


    American media outlets are getting leaks from the intelligence agencies which say that they believe that North Korea will be able to put a nuclear warhead on its ballistic missiles in 2018.


    Bye, Bye North Korea.

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  • I think that all the USA can do at the moment is shore up it's defences in the Pacific, South Korea and Japan. Chinese influence is N.Korea is the unknown quantity. If they can't persuade Kim Jong-ún to stop pushing, then God alone knows where it will lead.


    The man is a complete looney. Not even the Russian leaders executed their uncles with anti aircraft missiles.

  • I think that all the USA can do at the moment is shore up it's defences in the Pacific, South Korea and Japan.

    I don't think the Americans are going to wait for the point that Kim Jong-ún can put a nuclkear warhead on a missile and fire it at them. Supposedly, this technology was 5-10 years away for the North Koreans, that's not what the Americans are saying now.

    Chinese influence is N.Korea is the unknown quantity. If they can't persuade Kim Jong-ún to stop pushing, then God alone knows where it will lead.

    Like Putin and his sphere of "influence" and I guess American's too (which we're under) the Chinese see North Korea as a buttress to the western (American) world and have been very keen on supporting them as evidence by the Korean War.


    There has been a major change a few months ago when the Chinese stopped their coal important to North Korea which I imagine must be crippling for them, but if the Chinese wanted to end this situation, they could do so in a second and stop propping up this regime.


    The question I posed is, if the Americans do attack, what if any, will the reaction of the Chinese be?

    The man is a complete looney. Not even the Russian leaders executed their uncles with anti aircraft missiles.

    I shouldn't have laughed at that, but did. Very theatrical.


    That is how Kim Jong-ún treats family members, we should note that... when he is at such an advanced stage now with his missile and nuclear programme.

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  • North Korea has hailed as a success its latest test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), describing it as a "stern warning" for the US.


    North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said the test proved that the entire US was within striking range, state media reported.


    The launch came three weeks after North Korea's first ICBM test.


    US President Donald Trump called it "only the latest reckless and dangerous action by the North Korean regime".


    China also condemned the missile test but urged "all parties concerned" to exercise restraint "and avoid intensifying tensions".

    North Korea missile launch

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    Trump might have a "stern warning" back.

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  • Before we go onto the story that's just coming onto the newswires now, let's just update this thread with the last two stories from a couple of days ago:


    The United Nations Security Council has agreed on fresh sanctions against North Korea over its missile programme.


    A resolution banning North Korean exports and limiting investments in the country was passed unanimously.

    UN Sanctions on North Korea


    and


    China's foreign minister has told his North Korean counterpart that Pyongyang should stop carrying out nuclear and missile tests, hours after fresh sanctions were agreed by the United Nations Security Council.


    Wang Yi said he urged Ri Yong-ho to abide by UN resolutions in a meeting on Sunday in the Philippines.


    He did not say how Mr Ri replied.

    China warns North Korea

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    So, it looked like then, only a mere two days ago that there was the possibility of this ending peacefully, but perhaps the reason for all that UN activity and China's warning to North Korea is because of the Washington Post story today.



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  • North Korea has successfully produced a miniaturized nuclear warhead that can fit inside its missiles, crossing a key threshold on the path to becoming a full-fledged nuclear power, U.S. intelligence officials have concluded in a confidential assessment.

    Washington Post article

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    Well, this appears to be coming to the boiling point now. If North Korea can put nuclear warheads on missiles, America and the West have let things go too far.


    Bush Jr warned of the "axis of evil" after 9/11 and I expected the yanks to attack North Korea and Iran then, instead they just settled for Saddam. The Americans patience is pretty much over now, and it's more of question of when, not if, the North Korean regime will be taken out.


    It has the potential to be the world's biggest bloodbath, especially if Trump decides to use nuclear weapons against them. He has said today, “They will be met with the fire and fury and frankly power, the likes of which this world has never seen before." They should take note of that. He is not Obama and as he's demonstrated with the attack on Syria, he is quite prepared to use force.


    As I said before, the key is what would China's response be if their puppet regime were attacked. Would they get involved risking WW3, or stay out of it?

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  • I think the problem is that NK is actually not a puppet of China. The Chinese know that things are heading for disaster - far more for them (and S Korea) than for the US but it looks very apparent that they have absolutely no idea what to do about it. And people think Trump is a twat! OK maybe he is but how is the Chinese leader avoiding the flack? The bloke is clearly clueless.


    The S Koreans don't want war either. Sounds obvious when you say it but it is often overlooked.

  • I disagree Hoxton, about North Korean not being a puppet state of China. All of North Korea's supplies come from China and if it weren't for Chinese support (don't forget the Korean war) there wouldn't be a North Korea in the first place.


    The Chinese see North Korea as a buffer zone between themselves and American influenced South Korea.


    I agree with you though that if things head to war, and I think we're getting close now, the Chinese have far more to lose.


    As for why is the Chinese leader avoiding flak, well that's an easy one...:) It's easy to avoid flak when you have not been elected.


    What was interesting with today's news, was not the foaming and frothing coming from Trump, but the cold analysis, at least according to that Washington Post article, that the North Koreans have the capability to put nuclear warheads on intercontinental ballistic missiles and that they have 60 nuclear weapons. It was thought that the North Koreans were still around five years away from that capability.


    I do think this is a red line crossed now and Trump, oddly, despite his threats, maybe the only calmly influence now. The American military and political establishment want to deal with North Korea and pressure will be put on Trump now to act.

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  • A puppet state does what the master says, there's no way NK is doing what the master says!

    I agree that North Korea is not exactly playing ball, but the Chinese could be far tougher.


    The Chinese cut off the coal supplies to North Korea earlier this yet and if they wanted to, they could shut the borders and isolate them completely from men and materials. Thus far, the Chinese have chosen not too. If the Chinese cut the North Koreans off, there would be no North Korea.


    North Korea cannot sustain itself without external assistance. Their economy is non-existent and most of their people are starving.

    Yes of course the Chinese are not baying for Xi Jinping's blood but no one else is either. That's what I don't get.

    What, do you mean within the Chinese communist party?


    Xi Jinping is one of the most hard-line leaders the Chinese have ever had, it would be suicide to go against him. Besides, the party members live nice lives off the "fat" of their people, so why risk that?

    Wasn't the Washington Post one of the big believers in WMD in Iraq by the way?

    I've no idea whether the article is accurate or not, but if the article is accurate, perhaps the question should be, are the American intelligence agencies "sexing up" the evidence to appease their leaders wishes.?

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  • Yes but China don't know what to do. Cut off NK completely and what might happen? Revolution? Hordes of starving refugees fleeing north?


    I mean there is no international comment on what I consider to be the utter failure of Chinese NK policy (as above!).


    Talk of NK nukes worries me based on past experience, that's all... I think my worries are grounded even if they turn out to be wrong this time.

  • So you think this NK situation is just like Iraq? Saddam shouted from the rooftops about all his terrible weapons, when in fact they were destroyed during Gulf War1. You could be right.... but is it too late now? The war drums are beating.


    The lack of international criticism against China doesn't surprise me. Most countries are weak and those with some power, mind their own business.


    We could have been a lot tougher on China, but as I live in London, I can tell you why we're not. Money. The Chinese are building a whole area near Canary Wharf, pouring billions of pounds in. Money speaks louder than words. It's a clever kind of passive aggressive diplomatic policy from the Chinese. Spend money and they'll shut up, of course we're not the only ones. The Chinese are doing this all over the world. They pretty much control whole swathes of Africa now.


    As to your first point, yes, there could be millions of refugees trying to get in China, with many of them starving, so that would be a major concern for them.


    The Chinese don't want a revolution. They've made clear they do not want American forces on their borders, which is why they support NK.

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  • The North Koreans are threatening America's Pacific bases after Trump's threats.

    NK threatens American bases

    ====


    Sooner or later, a young soldier on the Korean border is going to get a itchy finger with all this bluster flying around.

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  • North Korea says it will be ready by mid-August to fire four missiles near the US territory of Guam, as a war of words with Washington intensifies.

    BBC article

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    If they do target Guam if they don't intentionally hit it, I would assume that would be it for the Dear Leader's regime.


    Either it will come down over the next few weeks, or explode.

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  • The problem is that if missiles are being fired in the direction of Guam, the USA won't know if they are aimed to hit the island or land in the sea a few miles away and Trump may take retaliatory action anyway.

  • President Donald Trump has warned North Korea it should be "very, very nervous" if it does anything to the US.

    Trump's latest threat

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    It would be laughable if it wasn't for the fact that any conflict could create the single greatest loss of life since WW2. I'm sure Trump will be on Twitter at 3am too with his messages.:rolleyes:

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  • The problem is that if missiles are being fired in the direction of Guam, the USA won't know if they are aimed to hit the island or land in the sea a few miles away and Trump may take retaliatory action anyway.

    An American NATO commander for Europe was once asked why any major conflict with Russia would immediately go nuclear, and he responded by saying how could they tell if the missiles that the Russians launched contained nuclear warheads or not. They would assume the worst and act accordingly.


    The Dear Leader might fire some conventional missiles into the sea near Guam, but with the missiles coming in their direct, the Americans might assume they are coming under a direct nuclear attack and respond with nuclear weapons.

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  • I bet nothing happens. Old Kim just wants everyone to think he has his nukes in place so he doesn't get toppled. I suppose he hasn't miniaturised yet but might be close so he's conned US intelligence again, who've conned the Washington Post again, and Dear Leader has played for some more time. Sometimes I think the guy is a nutter but other times he seems to really know what he's doing. I'll be willing to bet he's still there in 5 years time, and if he isn't it will be because of domestic influence (maybe influenced by China) and not American. I can't see S Korea allowing the US to destroy them.

  • South Korea would just be piggy in the middle, they wouldn't get a say in it.


    For decades everyone has laughed at North Korea while they make their yearly outbursts of armageddon, then one of their nuclear tests worked...The next test used a larger warhead and it eventually worked. The same with their missile tech. First, it was just little piddly missiles and now they have ICBMs.


    It maybe bluster coming from them Hoxton and your comparison to Iraq (I think that's what you meant) about non-existent WMDs maybe true, but after two decades of threats, North Korea does have nuclear weapons and does have ICBMs. We don't know if they can marry the two together and I don't think the world can afford to wait to find out.


    I reckon, one way or another, this may be sorted out soon.

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  • Why is he threatening Guam then? Is Russia or China, or Iran threatening to attack American territory? Only him.


    He may think, in his mind, he is invincible and nothing can touch him. He is god in his own country and he may genuinely have no concept on how much danger he is in.

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  • Those three nations are totally different from N Korea.


    Kim is trying to protect himself, he's been in danger since he took over, he's trying to drag others in too now. He's seen what's been happening in the world to dictators and he knows having nukes will make people think twice. Trump might be a nutter but will he be prepared to sacrifice millions of S Korean lives? Maybe you're underestimating the importance of that nation but I doubt Trump is.

  • I'm coming at this now from the angle that the American spy agencies are probably seeing this.


    Before there was no threat, now there are real nuclear weapons and real missiles. I think the calculus of risk on the part of the Americans has changed now. They will not allow Kim to continue this madness.


    It's cold, but if you're an American leader, who are you more interested in, South Korea or protecting your own country? Don't forget Trump's mantra of "America First." I believed him when he repeatedly said that.

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  • Whether North Korea has viable nuclear weapons or not, I can't see anyway the USA could prevent him from either getting them or developing them. The best they can do is sanctions because China isn't going to sit by while US troops move into North Korea. And sanctions wont affect Kim, they only affect the people and the people won't rise up because they know what will happen to them and their families.


    Apart from which Kim has complete control of the media and propaganda and by now I should imagine that the NK people must think that the USA is full of mass murderers who want to kill them all.

  • What if Trump said to China that American forces wouldn't cross the DMZ into NK in return for China staying out of things if the yanks took out the NK regime?

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  • No, both the yanks and Chinese keep their troops out and let the Koreans sort it out for themselves, if and when, the NK regime is destroyed.

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