Will Scotland leave the UK?

Quote from Jaydea

In terms of your absolute garbage that Labour Governments are the product of Scottish voting is so ridiculous. It beggars believed. What ever government England votes. England gets. The Scots have some 56 MPs in Westminster. That is out of some 650 sesats. One of whom is Labour. So stop being silly.

The point I was making was that the vast majority of Scottish MPs oppose the Conservatives, and so if Scotland separated, those opposition MPs would no longer be there.

Also, had those 56 SNP seats gone to Labour instead, they would have been the largest party following the 2010 election, and it would have been them, rather than the Conservatives, who would have been called upon to form a government.

Quote from Jaydea

I note you are calling me anti English because of what I posted on the economy. The standard rant on all forums. When some one south of the border is screwed for a answer. And you have not answered one question. As it is not what you want to hear. But somehow or other you consider yourself exempt from being anti Scottish when you discuss the Scottish economy. Of which clearly requires adjusting. And Britain is bankrupt. And Scotland has not benefited. And it is not as a result of Covid or Brexit. Those figures still have to be fed into economy. That will take about 3 years. It is because England cannot live within its means. By the way. There has been a drop of 40% in trade with the EU in January alone. I have not researched till now. But heh why let facts get in the road.

I think you are misreading something here. What I am saying is that your view of the economy is not one that will pass muster in the separation reparations debate. And even you must acknowledge that Scotland has benefited from the billions that have been thrown in by the Westminster government to deal with Coronavirus, which is just one demonstrable reason of how Scotland benefits from being in the UK.

Why do you say Britain is bankrupt when in fact the deficit was brought back down to manageable levels during the period of austerity following the financial crash, enabling GB to start repaying that debt? As far as the new, considerable debt resulting from Covid is concerned, the plan is to invest in the infrastructure of the country and also in industry, so that we can increase future income and bring the debt down. A country is only bankrupt if it cannot pay down its debt.

As I have said previously, the plan is to invest massively now in order to get more revenue back for the treasury in the future.

We would not be able to gain credit if the financial world agreed with your pessimistic assumptions, jaydea. Most countries have taken on massive debts to cope with the pandemic.

Quote from Jaydea

As I have asked previously. As you seemed to thin the Scottish economy was some sort of third world basket case. What did not add up. And I am still waiting on links to all this Anti English nonsense

I didn’t say Scotland was an economic basket case, jaydea. I simply said that Scotland would be worse off than remaining in the UK.

I have explained why I think that, and I note that you disagree. Let’s leave it there, shall we?

According to today’s Telegraph:

[EXTRACT]

Support for Scottish independence at lowest in two years

The poll found only 19 per cent of Scots think there should be another referendum within the next year, down three points

BySimon Johnson,  SCOTTISH POLITICAL EDITOR27 June 2021 • 8:20pm

Support for Scottish independence has dropped in recent months and stands at its lowest level for two years, according to a poll.

The Panelbase survey for the Sunday Times found 48 per cent support for separation and 52 per cent backing for the Union when undecided voters were excluded.

This represented a four-point swing since a poll conducted in April produced the opposite result. It also showed the lowest support for independence in a Panelbase poll since 2019.

Prof Sir John Curtice, Britain's most eminent psephologist, said the results indicated "a cooling of the independence ardour" since the Holyrood elections last month. Nicola Sturgeon's SNP won a fourth term in power but fell one seat short of a majority.

The poll also found only 19 per cent of Scots think there should be another referendum within the next year, down three points on the last survey, while 35 per cent said it should be staged within the next two to five years.

The remaining 46 per cent said a separation vote should not be staged in the next few years. A total of 1,287 adults aged 16 and over were surveyed between June 16 and 24.

Interesting link, Jenny. In the end, I doubt there will be barriers put up by the EU for the reasons the author sets out. It’s all about whether Scotland meets the criteria, which I’m sure it would. And, of course, the politics.

I remain very concerned about Scotland’s economy if it gained independence, and although the author does mention the ‘reduction of oil prices’, the shift away from fossil fuels is likely to see the total collapse of those prices, and therefore the much needed revenues for the Scottish economy. The SNP is going to have to do better than last time in explaining how they are going to balance the books. Elections are won and lost largely on the basis of the strength of the economy and which party the electorate judge to be better at managing it in the interests of its citizens.

In essence, there are four main obstacles facing Scotland. First, will Westminster grant Scotland another referendum? Second, would they win it anyway? Third, can Scotland survive without impoverishing its people after independence, given their deficit, the costs associated with separation and their capacity to increase income? Fourthly, is there a political will within the EU to accept Scotland into its sphere?

The UK government’s position is that a referendum will not be granted in this parliament. If the next Parliament grants a referendum, the success or otherwise of Brexit will be key to whether another vote would be in favour of independence.

Whatever side you are on in the Brexit debate, it is too early to judge at the moment. Remainers see nothing but obstacles, lost EU trade and economic decline, while Brexiteers see freedom, opportunities and the prospect of increasing the prosperity of this country.

Only time will tell who is right.

Quote from mike murphy

People are fed up with her Neverendum ideas

If that’s true, Mike, then we have nothing to worry about!