Will Scotland leave the UK?

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  • They stayed with the UK because in 2014, nobody knew that Cameron was going to call an EU referendum. Again, many comments I have heard, seen and read since then from Scots say that had they known the English (and Brexit IS overwhelmingly an English thing) were going take them out of the EU, then there is little doubt that they would have voted for independence.

    I think they stayed in the Union because they know how much they financially depend on us

  • I don't agree at all. Like most activists the Scottish Indy Activists know how to make themselves look much bigger than they actually are. It is not unlike the Labour activists during our recent GE making all the noise, grabbing all the headlines, grabbing the MSM attention and dominating discussion on TV and especially online. It is unsurprising that anyone not paying close attention would conclude that the Scots want independence now even more than they did before. The reality however is somewhat different. In Scotland, to openly admit that you do not want independence is akin to saying that you vote Conservative, you won't just become an outcast, you are likely to be the victim of open hostility not just online but in real life which is somewhat worse. Therefore those that do not want Scotland to become an independent country are not likely to advertise the fact. They will simply do what they need to do at the ballet box if and when necessary i.e. vote to stay a part of the UK, they are the majority, they don't want indyref but it is too risky to oppose the activists within the SNP who do, it will be too costly on a personal level. So, you only tend to hear from those who favour independence because they control the public space of debate.

    Now for the logic. Using simple assumptions (because reasons for voting one way or the other are purely subjective) I think the following are reasonable things to assume.

    1. Anyone in Scotland who actually wants to be independent will have voted SNP - they are the only party advocating for it so there is nowhere else for an indy voter to go.

    2. Anyone who was absolutely against independence and it was their primary consideration when placing their vote would definitely not vote SNP. They would vote for anyone else because only the SNP are pro-indy.

    3. Anyone who liked the the idea of a strong Scottish voice in Westminster would vote SNP because voting in the GE is no indicator of voting intentions for an Indyref. Remember that the SNP are running a minority government in the Scottish Assembly so they are not quite as popular in their own land as you might think. Allowing the SNP to run riot in Westminster will be something that a lot of Scots would find most amusing and it sends a message to the other parties that they would rather have a Scottish interest party arguing for them in Westminster. That is the only logical conclusion.

    4. Just because you vote SNP in the GE doesn't mean that you want Independence (see 3 above for the rationale).

    5. The SNP have no logical reason to believe that a vote for them is a vote for independence, they can see the difference between voting numbers for the Scottish Assembly and the Westminster Parliament so it would be impossible to conclude they have any more support for independence now than they ever have.

    So given the logic of the situation why do the SNP continue to push for independence? Simple, it is why they exist, they are a one trick pony, they care about nothing else. If they get the powers to run Indyref2 life will become unbearable for many Scots as they will fall victim to the SNP bully squads that will intimidate and harass ordinary people and communities to get them to vote the right way. This happened in the 2014 indyref as well and is one of the key reasons why a lot of Scots are desperate that there should not be another referendum. The bullying and harassment didn't work last time so the SNP know that if they can make enough noise for another Indyref they cannot let the opportunity pass, so life in Scotland will become pretty unpleasant for some during the campaign, even more so than last time.

    The best way to combat the SNP is to actually make them run devolved Scottish powers competently, something they are quite visibly failing to do right now. Obviously they will blame the Westminster government for short funding them but this is simply a smoke screen for their own ineptitude. Scotland gets funded per capita at 17% higher than England so there is no excuse, things should be better overall but they are not and this is due to SNP policies. They have been in charge in Scotland since 2007 so they cannot blame anyone else. Eventually the Scottish people will vote them out and this whole independence argument will disappear with them. They are nearing the end of their shelf life, the Scots want to move on from this and only they have the power to do it. Running spoilers at Westminster is a neat prank but it ultimately works against them. They need someone serious to run Scotland and the SNP are not the answer.

    Celebrate it, Anticipate it, Yesterday's faded, Nothing can change it, Life's what you make it

  • Wow, you have just completely described Brexit, only you have replaced words like "Brexit" and "Tory Party" with "Independence" and "SNP". That has to be the most bare-faced juxtaposition of recent British politics that I've seen in a very long time.

    Let's deal with your items one by one (I've done this before with you)

    1. The treatment dealt to remainers during the Brexit campaign. Outright bullying by Brexiters: "Traitors"...... "Snowflakes"..... "Remoaners"...... Betrayers"..... Anyone who didn't toe the Brexit line has been vilified and castigated. And for what..? Daring to exercise their lawful and democratic right to oppose something they do not believe in.

    The Brexit campaign was the dodgiest, most bent campaign ever in this country. Riddled with lies, dishonesty, criminal activity and at the end of the day, was not even a binding vote. The judge in the case of prosecuting Leave.UK's illegal campaign expenditure said that if the vote had been a legally binding one, he would have had no hesitation in declaring it null and void. It only avoided that by being not lawfully binding, and yet it is treated as holy writ and to say otherwise has seen hate and animosity poured out on anyone who dared to say so.

    You argue that the SNP is the only pro independence party in Scotland. Wrong. The Scottish Greens also support another independence vote and although they finished fifth in the pecking order, they did poll more than twice as many votes as the Scottish Brexit Party.


    2. How can you say what anybody in Scotland would vote for..? That's just more of the hubris I referred to. It's nothing short of arrogance. Notwithstanding that though, I think you're stating the glaringly obvious. Yes, anybody who is pro-independence in Scotland would vote for a party that is called "The Scottish Nationalist Party".

    The clue is in the name.

    But did they do so..? Well, in Decembers general election the SNP won 45% of the popular vote and 85% of the seats. Contrast this with UK as a whole, only 43.6% of the popular vote was won by the Conservatives, 56.2% of the seats.

    So...........

    SNP 45% vote and 85% seats (46% of the popular vote for indyref2 if you add the Scottish Greens to the mandate)

    Tories: 43.6% vote and 56.2% seats

    Who has the bigger mandate for their cause...?

    And yet you (I suggest would) argue that the Conservatives have a mandate for Brexit but the SNP do not have a mandate for independence.

    3. The Scots know that they will be given short shrift at Westminster. They have watched Ian Blackfoot try manfully to put their argument at Westminster since 2015.... and very articulately and passionately I might say..... and been howled down by the yah-boo mob on the other side of the benches. I think the Scots know that their voice won't be heard there. As is being proved already with Johnson's lofty dismissal of their reasonable and just argument for a second indyref.

    The Scots voting for a voice in Westminster...? Don't make me laugh.


    4. You're suggesting that people who vote for the Scottish NATIONALIST Party are not voting for independence...? I disagree. They are voting for a party who the Tories leader in Scotland, Ruth Davidson, repeatedly said over and over and over until we became sick of hearing it that the SNP are a one issue party constantly going on and on about independence.

    Please read the link. The Institute for Government makes it quite clear that the SNP manifesto at the 2019 election stated that they were fighting the election on a second referendum ticket:

    https://s3-eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/www.snp.org/up…or-download.pdf

    snip:

    We have a clear mandate to deliver a new
    referendum on becoming an independent country,
    and we are making it clear at this election that next
    year we intend to offer the people of Scotland a
    choice over their future.

    and:

    The SNP believes Scotland should be an
    independent country in a new partnership of
    equals with the rest of the UK and our European
    neighbours.


    For you to argue that Scots who voted for the SNP were not voting for independence is blinkered beyond belief.

    For Scots, the general election was ALL ABOUT independence in the same way there that Brexit was here in England. The endlessly repeated mantra of "Get Brexit Done" ensured that people went to the polls with only one issue at the forefront of their minds. And so, I believe, it was in Scotland with independence.

    5. Again, you assume that the Scots were voting for a voice in Westminster when they knew that their voice there would not be heard. I think you and other Tories are fooling only yourselves with your desire to maintain a status quo that is now only held together by the intransigence and stubbornness of a con man who has been elected to an office he is not fit for.

    No matter how you try to wrap it up, your arguments amount to wishful thinking.

    You want England to retain Scotland as a territorial possession. You don't care for the Scottish people.

    The Tories were wiped out in Scotland and for you to suggest it had nothing at all to do with independence is pure hubris and distortion. The sort of snake-oil salesmanship of which our current Prime Minister is the master of and which has got him into the position he does not deserve and is not fit for.

    Right now it is easy for the Tories to be smug and boastful about their election victory. Go ahead and crow. It's your time.

    But it won't be forever.

    The Scots, I believe, will get another say, be it now, tomorrow or the day after. It will happen. We won't be governed by a narcissistic egomaniac forever.

    I think you and I are going to have to agree to disagree on this issue.

    But I think the Scots will have another say within the next six or seven years - if not sooner if a way can be found to apply the right amount of leverage - and when they do, try arguing with the result that transpires then.


    PS; Before anybody tries to deflect this onto a thread about Brexit and starts calling me a remoaner, I will say that I didn't vote in the 2016 referendum. I would have liked to have voted leave, but could not in all honesty do so because it was clear to me then that the campaign to leave was corrupt and based on lies. The NHS lie on the bus stood out like a sore thumb and the most cursory look beneath the surface of the campaign was enough to see that we were heading for a disaster of epic proportions. I abstained with severe doubts about what I had been inclined to vote for.

  • I've heard plenty of excuses for the reason Remainers lost the referendum, but that takes the biscuit! It's because of Brexiter bullying? haha. That really makes me doubt your reasoning and logical thought processes.

    People voting in referendums or elections have the privacy of the voting booth, as explained very well by AS in post #122. Bullying is likely to be counterproductive as it makes people vote the 'other way'.

    All voters (including Scots) can say what they like in polls and to their bullying friends, but it's the vote in the polling booth that counts. That's democracy!

    Mark Twain — 'Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.'

  • Good Morning Jenny

    I have found out overnight that despite living in Cornwall you are Scottish Nationalist and a triggered one at that.

    It is genius to try to conflate what happened after the Brexit vote with what happened before the 2014 Indyref but I think most people will have spotted what you did there straight off. The SNP are a bunch of bully boys who cannot tolerate anyone thinking differently to them. Their current position in the Scottish Assembly as a minority government shows that the voting system will not help them, be it the proportional representation or first past the post, they do not have the numbers, pure and simple.

    You assert that everyone who voted SNP wants independence and you have no way of proving that, but even if you are right 46% is not enough. The qualified majority vote used in the Scottish Indyref required 60% so the numbers simply are not there. How does the SNP intend to turn another 14% in their favour? I would suggest they will try the same tactics as before and threaten and bully and intimidate people into voting for them. Behind the slightly amusing figure of Nicola they are a bunch of thugs with Antifa style squads that that do the dirty work at local level. The SNP are not your friend and they most definitely do not have yours or Scotland’s best interests at heart, just look at the mess they are making of the basic devolved powers that they already have.

    They do not have a mandate for another referendum the numbers have barely changed. I would contend that my logic argument in my earlier post is far from arrogance or hubris and is actually a fair assessment of the situation. You have no way to prove that every single Vote for the SNP in the recent GE can be translated into a vote for independence but it would also be fair to assume that if you didn’t vote for SNP that you are implying independence is not something you are interested in. In all probability the next Indyref should there ever be one would actually be a worse result for the SNP than before. This time around the Scots know what they are going to get and a lot of them are really scared just like I was about getting a Labour government in the last GE.

    I hear a lot of emotion in your written words and a lot of passionate feelings but you are wrong on this. Look at the logic.

    Celebrate it, Anticipate it, Yesterday's faded, Nothing can change it, Life's what you make it

  • When you have nothing to say best to play the victim card... If possible, the race card or the gender card.... But probably best to play the Joker Card.

    These same idiots walk away from any tiny face to face challenge. They themselves dont know why or what they stand for. If they had their way we would have to, by law, employ people suffering innumeracy as scorers in major Darts competitions. Poor little victims.

    Their main cop out is... "excuse me, I have a degree, I must be right"!!!

  • I've heard plenty of excuses for the reason Remainers lost the referendum, but that takes the biscuit! It's because of Brexiter bullying? haha. That really makes me doubt your reasoning and logical thought processes.

    The reason that people didn't vote Leave is because they are not racist

  • The reason that people didn't vote Leave is because they are not racist

    Name calling and trolling all in one. Stop calling people names and join the debate instead.

    Celebrate it, Anticipate it, Yesterday's faded, Nothing can change it, Life's what you make it

  • Name calling and trolling all in one. Stop calling people names and join the debate instead.

    A fact, not name calling

    I was common knowledge that UKIP who started the Brexit bandwagon rolling were racist, a bandwagon that rolled on and on

    To deny racism is the same as trying to deny that the campaign against Megan Markel is not racist

    British people are basically racist.It goes back as far as the 50s in my memory when notices were openly displayed on B&Bs such as "No Micks, No Coloureds"

  • Stop calling people names and join the debate instead.

    I won't be joining in, as I don't see the point in rerunning the arguments all over again. Leave won, Remain lost. We should now all pull together for the sake of the UK, and democracy.

    Mark Twain — 'Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.'

  • A fact, not name calling

    I was common knowledge that UKIP who started the Brexit bandwagon rolling were racist, a bandwagon that rolled on and on

    To deny racism is the same as trying to deny that the campaign against Megan Markel is not racist

    British people are basically racist.It goes back as far as the 50s in my memory when notices were openly displayed on B&Bs such as "No Micks, No Coloureds"

    Mark Twain — 'Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.'

  • I won't be joining in, as I don't see the point in rerunning the arguments all over again. Leave won, Remain lost. We should now all pull together for the sake of the UK, and democracy.

    No chance, the Country is bitterly divided and Remain supporters are not going to go away in a similarly way that the Eurosceptics kept plugging their view despite losing the argument in 1992

  • I have blocked b,luc. Becauseof his bigotry. But read the quote.

    It is shocking any adult capable of publishing comments on a forum will actually post shite and not know they are doing it. Facts are facts. He wont even say who he supports because that leaves him wide open to proven hipocrasy. It is all too common the leftie game players will never say what THEY fundimentally support and believe in. If you are truthful you don't mind stating your principled stance.

  • No chance, the Country is bitterly divided and Remain supporters are not going to go away in a similarly way that the Eurosceptics kept plugging their view despite losing the argument in 1992

    No problem. I will be happy to support another referendum in 40+ years time.

    ps. I think you erred and meant 1975, the date of the last EU/EEC referendum.

    Mark Twain — 'Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.'

  • Boris Johnson today formally told Nicola Sturgeon he will not allow IndyRef2 - arguing she promised to “respect” the 2014 referendum result.

    The Prime Minister replied to the First Minister nearly four weeks after she wrote to him in the wake of the General Election requesting the power to hold independence votes is permanently devolved.

    But in his response, Mr Johnson said he “cannot agree to any request for a transfer of power that would lead to further independence referendums”.

    And he claimed IndyRef2 would mean a continuation of "political stagnation" in Scotland "with Scottish schools, hospitals and jobs again left behind because of a campaign to separate the UK".

    The PM did not put any timescale on how long he would block a vote for, but his letter is expected to provoke a furious backlash from the SNP and Yes supporters.

    That's the way to deal with yon Krankie. Send her away with a flea in her ear. ^^

  • A fact, not name calling

    I was common knowledge that UKIP who started the Brexit bandwagon rolling were racist, a bandwagon that rolled on and on

    To deny racism is the same as trying to deny that the campaign against Megan Markel is not racist

    British people are basically racist.It goes back as far as the 50s in my memory when notices were openly displayed on B&Bs such as "No Micks, No Coloureds"

    Wanting to control borders is not racist. The sign actually read "no dogs, no Irish, no blacks". Of course, we now know better, dogs are wonderful creatures :)

    The intelligent are being oppressed so the stupid don't get offended

  • ps. I think you erred and meant 1975, the date of the last EU/EEC referendum.

    No, I meant 1992 when John Major called a general election because of those Euro sceptic "bastards" (his words, not mine" ) Cash, Redwood, Bones and all the others

  • Wanting to control borders is not racist. The sign actually read "no dogs, no Irish, no blacks". Of course, we now know better, dogs are wonderful creatures :)

    Thanks for reminding me, I forgot the "dogs". BTW I actually saw a "No Micks"

    Of course they were racist, deniers just do nor want to admit it

    Look at the great Leaves hero, Boris "Piccanninies, "Water Melon Smiles", and "Letterboxes"

    I rest my case !

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