Is an election looming?

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  • BORIS Johnson could be brought down within days of becoming PM with two Tories on "defection watch", it emerged today.

    Party bosses fear a pair of Remainer MPs will quit and join the Lib Dems if Boris makes it to No10 next week.

    That would wipe out the new Prime Minister's Commons majority - potentially triggering a snap election.

    I've already mentioned this earlier on the no-deal thread, but if Boris becomes PM, his majority could be wiped out even with DUP support and he could be forced to call an election. By law, an election must be called after 14 days if a government cannot get its legislation through parliament. So, what other choice would Boris have if he does become PM and face such a scenario?


    Some speculators have said that Boris might do some sort of deal with Farage if an election happens, how would that work?


    Is an election looming?

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  • A deal with Farage would be infinitely better than having the electorate make the mistake of voting Lib Dem in a crisis. Vote Lib Dem and Brexit goes down the pan, the EU laughs its socks off and uncontrolled immigration goes on apace along with many other things that need a strong hand.


    The Lib Dems are riding the wave of the sort of people who are too afraid to make commitments. That sort of support is nothing more than a host of hoverers and so that whole shebang wouldn't last and would collapse, leaving the UK in a very unstable and vulnerable position.

    The vagabond who's rapping at your door

    Is standing in the clothes that you once wore

  • Boris has been ruling out a deal with Farage during all the hustings he's been having over the last few weeks, but he may not have a choice in the end.


    If a deal does happen, it could be potentially very useful for Boris because he might get Farage to stand candidates against very pro-EU conservative MPs with the intention of knocking them out and likewise Farage might agree that Brexit candidates don't stand against leaver conservative MPs, thus creating a very different "atmosphere" in parliament.


    The Lib Dems, Labour and Greens and have all said they might work together to form a coalition to "save" Britain, so it could be a interesting election, if it were to occur.

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  • Oh my, the saviours! How mad is a mission to save a nation and a country from its independence.


    Clown world.

    The vagabond who's rapping at your door

    Is standing in the clothes that you once wore

  • I think Boris realises that failure to get Brexit will result in a massacre of the Tories at the next GE. I'm not sure Hunt cares, so long as we are trapped in the EU. Let's see if Boris can convince the Tory Remainers to back Brexit, but I'm not hopeful. The undemocratic Remainers have used every means possible possible to stop Brexit (including some very dodgy tactics) so it's time Brexiters fought back and did the same.

    Mark Twain — 'Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.'

  • Boris has stated his plan at the hustings which is to remove the backstop from May's deal and deal with it as part of a future FTA, whether the EU agrees to this remains to be seen. If the EU don't agree, then they lose the billions that May promised to hand over to them on Day 1 of the negotiations she did with them, so he stands a chance and that should appease the remainers some what.


    But if an election happens, that will suck up the remaining time we need for negotiations with the EU, so the whole thing could just collapse in the Autumn anyway.

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  • Boris has stated his plan at the hustings which is to remove the backstop from May's deal and deal with it as part of a future FTA, whether the EU agrees to this remains to be seen.

    I hope not. Boris knows how bad the WA is, so hopefully he will realise that agreeing the WA (with or without the backstop) will destroy the Tory party anyway.


    I think he will try to get the EU to agree to GATT 24. If he gets blocked, whether by the EU or UK Remainers, then a GE is the only solution ... but their manifesto won't be believed a second time, so I reckon the Brexit Party will win, unless Boris makes an agreement with them.

    Mark Twain — 'Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.'

  • I think the GATT thing has already been mentioned at one of the debates and hustings and the conclusion was it was not workable.


    May's deal with the backstop dropped should get through parliament. It's not what we want, but we're not going to get what we want, unless as I said, the whole things collapses, an election happens and new blood enters the fray.


    As I said in the no-deal thread, if some conservative MPs defect to the Lib Dems next week (one of them has already been deselected by the local conservative party, Phillip Lee) then that will collapse parliament and an election must then happen and we'll see if Boris does a deal with Farage. If he wants to stay in power, he may have little choice. And could the unthinkable happen, could we end up with Deputy PM Farage by early autumn??

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  • I think the GATT thing has already been mentioned at one of the debates and hustings and the conclusion was it was not workable.

    I didn't hear anyone say that, other than Remainers. It does need the EU to agree, but if they refuse then it is clear they are the ones who wish to disrupt trade, which won't go down well with their own industries, and they won't be able to blame Brexit, or the UK.


    As far as I am aware, Boris does think GATT 24 is feasible, as he mentioned in the Andrew Neil interviews, so I fully expect him to pursue it ... but then politicians lie to us, don't they!

    Mark Twain — 'Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.'

  • Yep they do, but in a way that's nothing new, we just see it more easily now.

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  • I think the GATT thing has already been mentioned at one of the debates and hustings and the conclusion was it was not workable.


    May's deal with the backstop dropped should get through parliament. It's not what we want, but we're not going to get what we want, unless as I said, the whole things collapses, an election happens and new blood enters the fray.


    As I said in the no-deal thread, if some conservative MPs defect to the Lib Dems next week (one of them has already been deselected by the local conservative party, Phillip Lee) then that will collapse parliament and an election must then happen and we'll see if Boris does a deal with Farage. If he wants to stay in power, he may have little choice. And could the unthinkable happen, could we end up with Deputy PM Farage by early autumn??

    I think it is workable, Horizon, provided that the EU play ball. We need their agreement to use Article 24 and the reason it is said that it is unworkable is that it's assumed the EU would reject the idea. However, that would hurt EU industries, so I would have thought they would be amenable to the idea if the Withdrawal Agreement is dead.

  • Boris Johnson 'absolutely' rules out pre-Brexit election

    Boris Johnson has said he will "absolutely" not call a general election before the latest Brexit deadline of 31 October.

    Speaking during a visit in Birmingham, the prime minister said voters did not want another general election or a referendum

    Do we believe him? He's starting to splash a lot of cash around about. (see other threads)


    What better way to lubricate some areas, especially in the Labour heartlands, than with some extra dosh in case of a no-deal Brexit?

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  • He must absolutely not call a general election. Avoid that at all costs right now. It's the last remaining cunning plan of his ideological opposition, who, if they got in on a wave of unattainable guff, would utterly destroy Britain, possibly for good.

    The vagabond who's rapping at your door

    Is standing in the clothes that you once wore

  • What appears to be happening LW, in my opinion, is that Boris is making a lot of "noise" about a no-deal Brexit and then has made it known that a election will be called before the 31st October to get the backing from the country for a no-deal Brexit. That's what's being played out in our papers and media at the moment. But I suspect this is all one big show and he is trying to put maximum pressure on the EU to come to the table. So, it's a case of who blinks first here.

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  • I don't think there is time for an election before 31 Oct. It would be political suicide for him to call a GE himself and delay Brexit further.

    Mark Twain — 'Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.'

  • No, it's the opposite. He needs the election to deliver Brexit in the event of a no-deal exit. Parliament will block a no deal exit, so if by mid August (or whenever the cut-off is) and the EU stick to their guns, Boris will have no choice but to call for a election.


    He will be bolstered by recent polls since he became PM which shows support drifting away from the Brexit Party back to his party.

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  • Parliament can't block a no deal exit, if Boris plays his cards right. I know lots are saying there will be a GE before Brexit, and just as many saying there won't be. It does look like Boris is still campaigning so it's possible. I'll wait and see. I really don't want to vote Conservative, ever again, due to their endless lies, so he needs to take that into account because he may just lose a GE.

    Mark Twain — 'Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.'

  • Parliament has already voted to block a no-deal exit Fidget, so what else can Boris do? The legislation says we leave on the 31st October, but we've had all this before, haven't we...? We know it can be changed.


    The latest mechanism the MPs used the other week was related to Northern Ireland and the MPs said that unless there is a working parliament in NI, then it would be unconstitutional for Brexit to happen.


    The splashing of cash is the biggest indication that he may go for an election, but as I said, this is more a show for the EU for now, but I gather from an article in the telegraph, that the government is about to spend £100m on a massive election campaign blitz.

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  • They haven't Horizon. They passed a motion, and motions are not legally enforceable. They have not changed the EU withdrawal bill, and that IS legally enforceable. They have not passed any laws to prevent a no-deal Brexit.

    Mark Twain — 'Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.'

  • They have not passed any laws to prevent a no-deal Brexit.

    Nor can they do so. AFAIK only the governing party can move primary legislation except by the mechanism of a private member's bill.

    History is much like an Endless Waltz. The three beats of war, peace and revolution continue on forever.

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  • The splashing of cash is the biggest indication that he may go for an election, but as I said, this is more a show for the EU for now, but I gather from an article in the telegraph, that the government is about to spend £100m on a massive election campaign blitz.

    It may help them with a GE, but the main purpose of the advertising campaign is to educate the public on the benefits of Brexit, and to prepare everyone for a WTO Brexit. It's about time someone did it, and we can't rely on the BBC and other media to do it.

    Mark Twain — 'Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.'

  • Not sure where to put this. The falling pound is not a bad sign because the overly inflated pound has prevented other countries from trading with Britain. Scaremongering on a lower pound (it's still sky high) is just scare mongering to get Boris to look bad. In fact a less aggressive pound will mean a more likely looking market for both trade and production.

    The vagabond who's rapping at your door

    Is standing in the clothes that you once wore

  • Brecon and Radnorshire by-election: Lib Dems beat Conservatives

    By-election loss for Tories cuts Commons majority

    The Liberal Democrats have won the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, leaving new PM Boris Johnson with a working majority in Parliament of one.

    Jane Dodds overturned an 8,038 majority to beat Conservative Chris Davies by 1,425 votes.

    Mr Davies stood again after being unseated by a petition following his conviction for a false expenses claim.

    About the worst possible news for Boris here.


    The conservatives don't have a majority in parliament thanks to May's election defeat, but the DUP is propping the government up. If Dominic Grieve and one other MP defect to join up with Anna Soubry's party or the Lib Dems, then by law, Boris would have to call a general election.


    Looking at the results, am I right in believing that the Brexit Party is splitting the Conservative vote here? The tories should've won that by-election.


    What a mess

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  • It may be bad news for the Tory's but Labour in a distant 4th position should be wetting themselves.

    History is much like an Endless Waltz. The three beats of war, peace and revolution continue on forever.

    4312-gwban-gif

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  • Yep. Apart from the hard left momentum supporting idiots, no one will be interested in voting for Corbyn's Labour which brings me to a side issue....


    Who have I seen popping up on the tv recently in several interviews to talk about international development? David Miliband. Looks like he's trying to re-raise his profile again...

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  • He's as bad as Blair. Never gives up.

    The vagabond who's rapping at your door

    Is standing in the clothes that you once wore

  • I can't see Boris calling an election before he has delivered Brexit. This is because many suspect he could be "all talk", a guy who can win smiles more easily than he can win votes. Boris can win the election with a good majority provided he delivers Brexit.


    There are other options, such as a pact with Farage but Boris will only do that if he has to. It will mean carving up the constituencies between them. It's a strategy to implement quietly and talk about it some time later.

  • I am so worried that Boris will be shafted before he can deliver. He absolutely must be able to free Britain and put recovery economics into place before the Lib Dems can destroy the UK forever. They were nicely going down the plug when some decided that "a little bit of peril" was better than having any guts. Please, goddity-woddity don't let Boris and his Brexiteers be shafted.

    The vagabond who's rapping at your door

    Is standing in the clothes that you once wore

  • I can't see Boris calling an election before he has delivered Brexit. This is because many suspect he could be "all talk", a guy who can win smiles more easily than he can win votes. Boris can win the election with a good majority provided he delivers Brexit.


    There are other options, such as a pact with Farage but Boris will only do that if he has to. It will mean carving up the constituencies between them. It's a strategy to implement quietly and talk about it some time later.

    Just read a few recent articles from the last few days and it appears Downing Street is making clear the same point as you. If Boris calls an election before he delivers Brexit, then his party is finished as Farage and co would sweep the floor with them, so I agree.

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