Will Trump encourage the revival of Iran?

  • Begin what?

    The short answer to your question: begin stopping Iran


    The longer answer is this:


    It's time the West put destroyers in the water to facilitate shipping going through the strait of Hormuz and opened fire on any Iran vessel which after fair due warning fails to keep its proper distance and is therefore displaying hostile intention.


    America should not have to do this alone. NATO exercises show that European naval strength is impressive. There is little or no extra cost in allocating some of naval NATO exercises to the strait of Hormuz, which could continue indefinitely.


    American and Israel rapid airstrike capability would also be in a state of preparedness


    At the same time, sanctions against Iran should continue and, if there is any scope left, should be made more severe. The West is not looking for capitulation, it is looking for negotiation for peaceful co-existence. If Iran doesn't share that desire then it is not going to end well and so be it.


    Finally, in the tradition of offering carrot as well as stick, Iran will be told that the remedy is quite simple: respond to the West's invitation to negotiate a state of peace rather than economic and military hostilities. This should include the discontinuation of holding Western citizens as hostage using bogus trials to fabricate a criminal act against Iran (often espionage whicch is usefully vague and un-provable).


    In any such negotiations the first step should be for the West, as a gesture of goodwill, to offer the return the Iranian tanker they confiscated near Gibraltar and for Iran to return the two Western ships they grabbed on the Strait of Hormuz (their first grab being without cause or provocation, their second in retaliation for the West's confiscation of their tanker in Gibraltar waters on the grounds of being in legal breach of EU's sanction rules).


    Three caveats:


    1) The return of Iran's tanker might stick in the West's craw but I think the West escalated what was an ill-considered childish hostile belligerent act by Iran, by legally confiscating their tanker near Gibraltar and then blathering on about justifying such an act on the grounds of EU sanctions and insisting the two acts were unconnected. I'm sure the West 's action is legally justified and I'm sure Iran's two grabs can be considered acts of piracy (the first childish and ill-considered, the second retaliatory). But that kind of self-righteous pedantry from the West (Britain in particular) is no way to begin negotiation with a country that one is trying to nudge by negotiation towards a 21st century live-and-let-live civility between the West and Islam. It would be a wise, magnanimous and goodwill gesture for the West to propose right at the outset of negotiations that each side agrees unconditionally to return one another's property.


    2) Even though Iran is a member of the UN, the above approach to negotiation should be instigated unilaterally and without the usual dead hand of UN involvement or approval.


    3) Sadly, I expect points 1 and 2 above will prove irrelevant because the West, particularly the EU and even more particularly the UK, will never get their act together to agree on anything, least of all committing lofty words into action, I also expect Iran knows that they have more resolve than Europe and they also know that America expects Europe to act like an ally, not a bunch of cowardly cheese- or sauerkraut-eating surrender monkeys and, finally, that Europe will blink first rather than step up to the plate. This is part of the Iran vision, which they call The Islam Awakening. If my pessimism is correct, we should all swot up on Sharia Law!

  • :( Have to agree and well said. Skirting round WWIII is not a smart plan. Avoiding it is. Being indecisive also convinces increasingly embattled Putin that he can enter the fray on the side of Iran. That is more dangerous than scrapping over tankers and if China supports Russia on this we shall all be thrust into a repugnant possibly global conflict again.


    It is imperative that people stop weeping over politically correct issues and think about what might happen to them should any of this come to pass.

    There, in a mauve light of drifted lupins,

    They hung in the cupped hands of mountains

    Made of tingling atoms.- Ted Hughes


  • It's time the West put destroyers in the water to facilitate shipping going through the strait of Hormuz and opened fire on any Iran vessel which after fair due warning fails to keep its proper distance and is therefore displaying hostile intention.

    We've now got one of the new Type 45 destroyers escorting our tankers now along with the Type 23 frigate. Hope that's enough, because that's pretty much the entirely of ships available!

    America should not have to do this alone. NATO exercises show that European naval strength is impressive. There is little or no extra cost in allocating some of naval NATO exercises to the strait of Hormuz, which could continue indefinitely.

    The Germans have explicitly ruled out their involvement in any such "exercise" as they fear it's a precursor to an attack on Iran and coming after the Iraq War mess, they have due cause to be suspicious of the Americans.


    The French and Italians are willing and as you say other NATO countries like the Dutch, Spanish and Danes have naval capabilities to assist. Trump does have a point that is shouldn't always be the Americans who do the "work", but it was Trump that instigated this current situation.


    At the same time, sanctions against Iran should continue and, if there is any scope left, should be made more severe. The West is not looking for capitulation, it is looking for negotiation for peaceful co-existence. If Iran doesn't share that desire then it is not going to end well and so be it

    I would still concentrate on getting the nuclear deal back on track first, then worry about Iran's wider actions in the region, but this would be siding up with the Europeans against Trump, though. Otherwise, I agree.


    Finally, in the tradition of offering carrot as well as stick, Iran will be told that the remedy is quite simple: respond to the West's invitation to negotiate a state of peace rather than economic and military hostilities. This should include the discontinuation of holding Western citizens as hostage using bogus trials to fabricate a criminal act against Iran (often espionage whicch is usefully vague and un-provable).

    I agree, but all of that should come later, there are more immediate things to do with and Boris should stay well away from this...

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  • In any such negotiations the first step should be for the West, as a gesture of goodwill, to offer the return the Iranian tanker they confiscated near Gibraltar and for Iran to return the two Western ships they grabbed on the Strait of Hormuz (their first grab being without cause or provocation, their second in retaliation for the West's confiscation of their tanker in Gibraltar waters on the grounds of being in legal breach of EU's sanction rules).


    Three caveats:


    1) The return of Iran's tanker might stick in the West's craw but I think the West escalated what was an ill-considered childish hostile belligerent act by Iran, by legally confiscating their tanker near Gibraltar and then blathering on about justifying such an act on the grounds of EU sanctions and insisting the two acts were unconnected. I'm sure the West 's action is legally justified and I'm sure Iran's two grabs can be considered acts of piracy (the first childish and ill-considered, the second retaliatory). But that kind of self-righteous pedantry from the West (Britain in particular) is no way to begin negotiation with a country that one is trying to nudge by negotiation towards a 21st century live-and-let-live civility between the West and Islam. It would be a wise, magnanimous and goodwill gesture for the West to propose right at the outset of negotiations that each side agrees unconditionally to return one another's property.

    Hmm... Have you forgotten the tankers, including a Japanese one, that "mysteriously" started to explode and then the Iranian revolutionary guard caught red handed removing a mine from one of the tankers? I call that more than a childish act.


    I think the kind of action you suggest now, might empower the hardliners too much. I think Iran needs to be "brought" to the negotiating table first, then consider being magnanimous afterwards.


    2) Even though Iran is a member of the UN, the above approach to negotiation should be instigated unilaterally and without the usual dead hand of UN involvement or approval.

    Agree.

    3) Sadly, I expect points 1 and 2 above will prove irrelevant because the West, particularly the EU and even more particularly the UK, will never get their act together to agree on anything, least of all committing lofty words into action, I also expect Iran knows that they have more resolve than Europe and they also know that America expects Europe to act like an ally, not a bunch of cowardly cheese- or sauerkraut-eating surrender monkeys and, finally, that Europe will blink first rather than step up to the plate. This is part of the Iran vision, which they call The Islam Awakening. If my pessimism is correct, we should all swot up on Sharia Law!

    The EU collectively will do nothing, but individual European nations along with America, will.

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  • American and Israel rapid airstrike capability would also be in a state of preparedness

    I have no doubt it is, so are Iran's missiles which can reach all American bases in the region and our base on Cyprus too.


    :( Have to agree and well said. Skirting round WWIII is not a smart plan. Avoiding it is. Being indecisive also convinces increasingly embattled Putin that he can enter the fray on the side of Iran. That is more dangerous than scrapping over tankers and if China supports Russia on this we shall all be thrust into a repugnant possibly global conflict again.

    Fully agree LW and Putin has indicated he's interested and with the permanent Russian base in Syria, he could do a lot of "fraying" on the sidelines here.


    If Putin were to give the Iranians one of his missile defence systems in conjunction with Iran's own missile attack capabilities, that could help to neutairse any American and/or Israeli attack on Iran.

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  • Horizon: we're pretty much in accord and, since I value your take on such matters, I find that gratifying. The main point on which I have sometimes parted company with you, which I admit is open to conjecture, is your comment that "it was Trump that instigated this current situation". The way I see it, Trump cancelled an agreement which, to all intents and purposes, went as follows: Iran to Obama: "if you give us a shitload of money we won't build a nuclear arsenal of bombs and missiles". Obama to Iran: okay.


    For America it wasn't a clever deal because it still allowed Iran to build ballistic missiles and wage a proxy war in and ultimately beyond the Middle East, supporting various military militias, not least Hezbollah, not to mention holding under suspicion almost any visitor to Iran on bogus charges (usually to do with espionage, which is mostly an imagined rather than proven accusation. Then again, A Deal's A Deal and should not be open to review just because of a change of CEO - and that surely applies as much to countries as it does to businesses.


    Worse than that, I have yet to learn of an argument of any adequate substance from Trump and his minions as to why he cancelled a deal which all the evidence showed Iran was complying with. The only explanation circulating - and it is as good as any, sadly quite credible - is that Trump during his campaign sought to denigrate Obama by promising to cancel Obama's Iran deal. I think on this issue alone Trump is in danger of painting himself into a corner where, if the West's present conflict with Iran flares up into a war or conflagration which could easily extend beyond the Middle East - especially if Russia (or China?!) sees an opportunity to gain further influence in that region - Trump's chance of a second term is greatly diminished. It's one thing to fire up the blind nationalism of his red-necked tattooed key support group, who Hilary justifiably but so unwisely described as the "The Deplorables", but quite another challenge for Trump to hold on to the remainder of his 51% franchise if the economic landscape and the joys of capitalism start to look precarious. I know Trump is arrogant and crass, and probably has a K.I.S.S plaque on his desk but, if in spite of so many ambivalent followers' wishful thinking, he persists in being so stupidly insensitive and un-strategic when the stakes are this high, we are all in trouble.


    It is against that background that I also tend to disagree with your reply to my original point 1, where you reject my recommendation that the US breaks the ice with a magnanimous gesture rather than a hard line approach. I don't think your straitlaced uncompromising, British rules & regulations will get us anywhere with Iran whereas my approach plays a win-win trump card which is that, worse case scenario, the whole world will come closer to recognising that Iran is beyond reasoning with and that America generally - Trump specifically - made a gesture of reconciliation which was scathingly and mindlessly rejected. At which point it becomes acceptable that America should get tougher. Whereas if the gesture is accepted by Iran and talks commence, then Trump will confirm to all those doubters that he is capable of re-visiting a policy rather than insisting it is a tablet of stone. Politicians who can't change their mind are a danger to the world.

  • we dont fear british navy or americans, they wont attack. We have the right to block ships from entering our waters.


    Beside that China offers to buy our oil. If that starts working well, the west is dead for us. There is no need for negotiations when someone else gives us what we need

  • Horizon: we're pretty much in accord and, since I value your take on such matters, I find that gratifying. The main point on which I have sometimes parted company with you, which I admit is open to conjecture, is your comment that "it was Trump that instigated this current situation". The way I see it, Trump cancelled an agreement which, to all intents and purposes, went as follows: Iran to Obama: "if you give us a shitload of money we won't build a nuclear arsenal of bombs and missiles". Obama to Iran: okay.

    But regardless of the terms of the deal, the deal was made and it was agreed by all countries who signed up to it. Trump had no right to unilaterally tear it up.


    The Americans have the firepower to protect all their assets in the Middle East, we don't. Trump should've thought about that before throwing away this deal.


    For America it wasn't a clever deal because it still allowed Iran to build ballistic missiles and wage a proxy war in and ultimately beyond the Middle East, supporting various military militias, not least Hezbollah, not to mention holding under suspicion almost any visitor to Iran on bogus charges (usually to do with espionage, which is mostly an imagined rather than proven accusation. Then again, A Deal's A Deal and should not be open to review just because of a change of CEO - and that surely applies as much to countries as it does to businesses.

    I've never said it was a good deal, but it was a deal and it contained Iran's nuclear ambitions. All the other stuff with Hezbollah etc should've been negotiated in a separate deal with the Iranians.


    Worse than that, I have yet to learn of an argument of any adequate substance from Trump and his minions as to why he cancelled a deal which all the evidence showed Iran was complying with. The only explanation circulating - and it is as good as any, sadly quite credible - is that Trump during his campaign sought to denigrate Obama by promising to cancel Obama's Iran deal. I think on this issue alone Trump is in danger of painting himself into a corner where, if the West's present conflict with Iran flares up into a war or conflagration which could easily extend beyond the Middle East - especially if Russia (or China?!) sees an opportunity to gain further influence in that region - Trump's chance of a second term is greatly diminished. It's one thing to fire up the blind nationalism of his red-necked tattooed key support group, who Hilary justifiably but so unwisely described as the "The Deplorables", but quite another challenge for Trump to hold on to the remainder of his 51% franchise if the economic landscape and the joys of capitalism start to look precarious. I know Trump is arrogant and crass, and probably has a K.I.S.S plaque on his desk but, if in spite of so many ambivalent followers' wishful thinking, he persists in being so stupidly insensitive and un-strategic when the stakes are this high, we are all in trouble.

    I actually think any conflict will probably guarantee Trump a second term, which is why he may go down that road eventually. His inbred support base loves wars.


    Like you and as I've said before, I could see no reason why Trump ripped up the deal either. I don't know whether it was because of that Obama thing or not, but it seems strange except that Trump hates the current international order of multinational agreements and multinational organisations, so perhaps that's the reason??

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  • we dont fear british navy or americans, they wont attack. We have the right to block ships from entering our waters.


    Beside that China offers to buy our oil. If that starts working well, the west is dead for us. There is no need for negotiations when someone else gives us what we need

    Well, good luck with China then. Like half of Africa now, you'll soon be a a Chinese colony.


    As for the first bit, international recognised waters do not belong to Iran. Your regime has no right to seize vessels sailing in internationally recognised waters.

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  • we dont fear british navy or americans, they wont attack.

    Well that will be an interesting perspective when you're sitting down to afternoon tea with Shinigami and the remains of your country that hasn't been turned to glass is in low earth orbit.

    History is much like an Endless Waltz. The three beats of war, peace and revolution continue on forever.

    4312-gwban-gif

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  • Well, good luck with China then. Like half of Africa now, you'll soon be a a Chinese colony.


    As for the first bit, international recognised waters do not belong to Iran. Your regime has no right to seize vessels sailing in internationally recognised waters.


    I´m rather a chinese vasall than a western slave. China tends not to interfer in interior things like the west does. China also is not genocidal like the west is.

  • Well that will be an interesting perspective when you're sitting down to afternoon tea with Shinigami and the remains of your country that hasn't been turned to glass is in low earth orbit.

    Good luck then to hold Jorda, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Emirates, Israel and Afghanistan alive.


    If we go, millions will go with us. Iran has the ability to destroy the entzire region. Our rockets can reach as far as paris or Rome.


    We have several hundred kg high enriched uranium. Its in powder form.


    You know how much 3.5% enriched Uranium escaped chernobyl? Just 60 Kg.


    You know why Saudi Arabia and Emirates are so silent now? Because they are in absolute fear.


    Maybe we are dead in low earth orbit and glass but you will slowly die from radiation sickness. Evacuated from your big cities, while the radiation creeps evrywhere


    We might not have a nuke for now. But enough material for hundreds of dirty bombs. Even if you shot a rocket down, it would spill its poison


    We know very well that neither you nor the americans will attack us. Why you think we took teh british ship? We will have little skirmish and thats it.


    The Saudis and Emirates are our worst enemy. Their silence out of fear sings the song.


    They are much more crazy than you are. That they are scared tells much about you.

  • Leaving aside the "goodness" of the Chinese regime Darioush, how do you see things playing out between Iran and the West now?

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  • Leaving aside the "goodness" of the Chinese regime Darioush, how do you see things playing out between Iran and the West now?


    Very bad, i feel ashamed how naive i was. Hardliners here said westerners are treacherous snakes and can not be trusted. I and many young people in my age did not believe that. We thought thats angry rants of old people and now evrything they said happened.

  • Perhaps things will turn out okay and you may have cause to be a little bit more optimistic at that point.

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  • :( Have to agree and well said. Skirting round WWIII is not a smart plan. Avoiding it is. Being indecisive also convinces increasingly embattled Putin that he can enter the fray on the side of Iran. That is more dangerous than scrapping over tankers and if China supports Russia on this we shall all be thrust into a repugnant possibly global conflict again.

    Reading a article the other day and as always I can't find it now, but I will post a link if it does reappear, but the article said that Putin has signed a agreement with the Iranian Supreme Leader to build a military base in Iran. 500 military "advisers" will also be based there, Spetsnaz "advisers"...X/

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  • Yep. Here's the link:


    In a potentially catastrophic escalation of tensions in the Persian Gulf, Russia plans to use Iran’s ports in Bandar-e-Bushehr and Chabahar as forward military bases for warships and nuclear submarines, guarded by hundreds of Special Forces troops under the guise of ‘military advisers’, and an airbase near Bandar-e-Bushehr as a hub for 35 Sukhoi Su-57 fighter planes OilPrice.com has exclusively been told by senior sources close to the Iranian regime.

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  • It's what I feared would happen, if not with Russia then with China , perhaps eventually with both. It was bound to happen quite soon after the West imposed sanctions on Iran. I don't think there were ever any ways of having a bearable relationship with Iran, who hate the West politically, commercially , religiously and ideologically. The nuclear deal was extortion; Obama was buying a mirage of appeasement. It made America stupid. Trump cancelling it has made America less stupid. I'm sure Iran sees Europe as the soft underbelly for the next stage of The Islamic Awakening. I cannot think of a single reason other than oil why any country in the West would want or need to deal with countries in the Middle East or indeed any Muslim country. This is not racial or religious hatred. Islam is at least if not more a political movement than a religious movement, to conquer and replace western values. The sooner the West can find alternative energy, where oil is only needed in such tiny quantities that it can be obtained anywhere, then the sooner we can stop having any relationship at all with these unbalanced evil fanatics. By all means let China and/or Russia occupy the whole of the Middle East, where they can play with sand dune buggies to their heart's content. I don't see much in the way of a geo-political advantage for China or Russia in occupying that global region since they feel they need Muslims like a hole in the head.

  • It may well be both.


    I've seen another article about China's involvement in Iran (although I've completely forgotten its content for the moment) and I'll try and post that link if I find it again.

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  • Typical racism here again.


    Sand buggys? Has anyone here a clue what Iran looks like?


    I give you a hint:


    Mazandaran


    9292f19c-e3c3-4593-8d30-3f42149fc63d-1.jpg


    DRRmfllUQAANCW0.jpg


    Damavand


    traveliran-topirantour.com-mount-damavand-peak-climb-trek-tour-iran-02-1024x1024.jpg


    Alborz


    view-of-sialan-peak-from.jpg


    Kermanshah


    7e6021d9eef4df6ff16b940a2d462f07.jpg


    And you wonder why you lose here? Your "sand buggys" propably got stuck in the dense forests or snowfields.


    And yeah sure, we hate the west commercially. Because of that we wear nike shoes, use iphones and Mercedes.


    Your problem is different. You want slaves and vassals. In the past that worked but you have become weak and others replace you.


    Im proud that our goverment busts your rotten politics. Trump canceled the deal because he believed we would crawl to them and beg for a new deal.


    That we ignore them, move on and do as we please freaks them out.


    Its said trump threw a tantrum when our foreign minister was in New York at UNO but denied a meeting with Trump.


    casablanca


    We had a deal with USA and the West. trump cancelled the deal and believed he gets a better deal. But now we have no deal and we dont even meet with them. We move on, enrich uranium again and move trade to russia and china.


    Trump tried the same game with us he did with North Korea. He expected at end he too gets nice pictures with our leadership.



    What he got now is that Saudi Arabia and Emirates are silent, because we told them we will destroy them and his british poodle humilated.

  • Indeed. Beautiful country, just hope they get some decent leaders at some point in the future.

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  • We had a deal with USA and the West. trump cancelled the deal and believed he gets a better deal. But now we have no deal and we dont even meet with them. We move on, enrich uranium again and move trade to russia and china.

    You talk about vassals, but if you'd read the article which I linked to a few posts back, you'll see that is exactly what might happen if this deal that Iran has done with Russia is true.


    If you think once the Russians have troops, warplanes and ships stationed in your country, that they'll ever leave, then you would be mistaken. And any conflict between Russian and the West would then be fought in Iran turning your country into a battlefield. Is that what you want?


    I agree and always said so, that Trump shouldn't have ripped up the nuclear deal, but with the Iranian regime as the biggest sponsor of worldwide terrorism, that is a policy decision that he made. He wants to curb all of Iran's unwanted activities, not just the nuclear stuff.

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  • What a terrible waste of such beautiful scenery

    Oh i have no doubt you would want our land and kill us. It must burn in your heart to know we are too strong so you cant put us into cattle carriages and deport us into gas chambers like your kind likes to do with others.


    You know why we have normal borders?


    Donald-Trump-Iran-war-1430863.jpg?r=1532341736903


    Because we are very good in defending our nation. Contrary to our neighbors we were not british colonies, since we were very good in killing british colonialists.


    The fact that we were never a colony is a thing for great pride here.


    One would think the UK would have learned its lessons after so many humilations we served to them.


    We still hold your ship. I just heared its a very new one. Not even a year old.


    You will get the ship back when we get ours back. We dont negotiate.


    I think your government still doesnt understand how this all works.


    Our culture is about honor. By taking our ship, you insulted Iran. Evry Iran expert said, that Iran will now take a british ship in response. Your country was to weak. Our forces took your ship even so one of your war ships was nearby. They released the calls between your war ship and our command. It makes your military appear weak and shy. For same reason few years ago they showed your soldiers crying in TV when we captured them.


    Its about humilation. And then an act of mercy to let them free. Again with them in TV apologizing and show how greateful they are for our act of mercy.


    Its now about humilation UK. Your country even send an envoy to Iran, ignorant to understand how this is shown as begging. The UK appears helpless and weak. And this image is shown all around the world.


    I know your queen is to old to kneel, but maybe she can read a message where she asks for forgiveness.

  • You talk about vassals, but if you'd read the article which I linked to a few posts back, you'll see that is exactly what might happen if this deal that Iran has done with Russia is true.


    If you think once the Russians have troops, warplanes and ships stationed in your country, that they'll ever leave, then you would be mistaken. And any conflict between Russian and the West would then be fought in Iran turning your country into a battlefield. Is that what you want?


    I agree and always said so, that Trump shouldn't have ripped up the nuclear deal, but with the Iranian regime as the biggest sponsor of worldwide terrorism, that is a policy decision that he made. He wants to curb all of Iran's unwanted activities, not just the nuclear stuff.


    Do you see us or Saudi Arabia as bigger sponsor of Terrorism? Or do you say we should put our terror sponsorship on the level of Saudi Arabia, so its fine for you? Just ask for understanding. Since Saudi Arabia heavily finances ISIS, Al-Nusra, Taliban and Boko Haram.


    Can you name exact numbers? How are we bigger sponsor of Terrorism compared to others?


    We want curb all unwatnted USA and UK activities in the middle east. And we are more sucessful than you.


    We crushed your regime change in Syria. Assad is hold in power because Irans support. We cut Yemen away from your Saudi croonies.


    Meanwhile we still do all our "unwanted activities", while sucessfull kicking you out of the region.


    Trumps "policy decission" seems not to work, since Iran even denies to talk with him.


    We see the west as weak. The future is China. We continue our politics but trade with China. This means another defeat for your group of nations.


    You have nothing to offer anymore.


    Nothing you have cant be sold better from China. You appear old, weak and your old Queen is a perfect representation for this old, and broken weakness. Now you have a clown as PM.


    You had the chance to get Iran as partner. You threw it away. You chose your way as vasall from USA, a dieing country itself.


    There wont be a conflict between West and Russia. You are too weak for that. You dont even dare a conflict with us. Russia uses weapons of mass destruction in your own country and all you do is throwing a tantrum.


    I believe its a iranian core interest to join the alliance with Russia and China. Thats the future. Your old and weak system has nothing left to offer.


    And we see the west not as a weakling block.


    We see european countries which appear strong and independend. France for example or Germany with its economic might.


    But you?

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