Brexit could blow €20bn hole in EU budget, warns European commissioner

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  • Britain’s withdrawal from the EU could leave the remaining 27 countries with a €20bn a year hole in their budget, requiring additional EU taxes to fill the gap, the European commission has said.


    Günther Oettinger, the European commissioner for the budget, said the loss to the bloc had to be acknowledged, and big decisions made about the scale of the its ambitions after March 2019.

    “We won’t have the UK with us any more, but they were net payers despite the Thatcher rebate, so we will have a gap of €10bn-€11bn a year,” the German official said.


    Writing in a separate blog, Oettinger said the need to finance new initiatives in areas such as defence and security meant “the total gap could therefore be up to twice as much”.


    https://www.theguardian.com/wo…get-european-commissioner


    So it's not quite as one sided with the odds against us getting a satisfactory deal as the Remainers would like us to believe. Well perhaps if the EU asks nicely we'll continue to help them out, as long as we get a good deal of course.;)

  • They're finally waking up and smelling the coffee. Strengthens the UK's hand a mite.

    History is much like an Endless Waltz. The three beats of war, peace and revolution continue on forever.

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  • They keep forgetting we were net payers. They got more money from us, than what we got from them and what we did get back was only thanks to Margaret's Thatcher's rebate.

    The Sun headline at the time put it rather well I thought, "WE WANT OUR OUR MONEY BACK."


    I remember all those criticising Thatcher from the Left and even from her own side (Ken Clarke) over the rebate and saying that this was not the way to behave to our "partners."


    They have never been out partners. The word indicates some sort of level playing field which has never existed since the UK joined the EC/EU club "of equal nations."


    Perhaps if the EU wants their Euro army now, they should pay for it themselves.

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  • Indeed.................and that is also a damn good reason for not paying the ridiculously termed 'divorce bill'!!

  • There's a bit more bad news for the EU today as well. I'm glad we're pressing ahead.


    British negotiators will begin talks with the US on a post-Brexit trade deal on 24 July, Liam Fox has revealed.

    EU rules prohibit member states from making separate trade deals with countries outside the bloc.


    But the Secretary of State for International Trade has repeatedly insisted there is nothing to stop the British Government “scoping out” how a future relationship with America might look.

    Speaking on BBC One’s Question Time, Mr Fox said talks with his US counterparts would begin next month as he seeks to make new trade deals with “very, very big markets” outside Europe.


    http://www.independent.co.uk/n…-us-24-july-a7815751.html

  • Ah, the peril to some of the big markets outside Europe that a free Britain can negotiate with. That horror prospect cracks the thin shell of control that keeps EU threats alive.

    The vagabond who's rapping at your door

    Is standing in the clothes that you once wore

  • Liam Fox was on Question TIme last night and I was intending to do a summary of the programme here, but there was so much shouting, I switched the tv off.


    Hopefully, Fox may have learnt from his past indiscretions, if he's doing a trade deal on behalf of the UK, he should not be doing his own personal deals too, but we'll see.


    As to to the rules about EU states can't make separate deals, WHO CARES? We're leaving, stuff their rules.

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  • Indeed.................and that is also a damn good reason for not paying the ridiculously termed 'divorce bill'!!

    Was it you who was also talking about assets in the other thread?


    We're poured billions into EU buildings and infrastructure, which obviously after Brexit they will keep. We can hardly get our share back, unless we start knocking down their buildings;). So, they get to keep all their assets which we helped to fund, including their gleaming new HQ which was just opened, so I am starting to warm up to the argument that we shouldn't be paying a divorce bill too them.

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  • Was it you who was also talking about assets in the other thread?


    We're poured billions into EU buildings and infrastructure, which obviously after Brexit they will keep. We can hardly get our share back, unless we start knocking down their buildings;). So, they get to keep all their assets which we helped to fund, including their gleaming new HQ which was just opened, so I am starting to warm up to the argument that we shouldn't be paying a divorce bill too them.

    Yes - I was pointing out that as the EU were likening our departure from their empire as a divorce, I consider it would only be right for them to include the UK's rightful share of the assets too......after all, divorce settlements take in to account both assets and liabilities.......as as we all know, the UK's contribution has been far from insignificant.

  • We really needed a "strong and stable" government to stand up to the EU, but as it stands, our initial battings seem feeble.


    Our position is not quite as weak as the media likes to portray, but I don't think the politicians really understand this.

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  • I personally thought that David Davis was a good choice.....He may still turn out to be, but he did appear to be rather accommodating to the EU's peremptory "this is what we will have to discuss first" claim. I would have thought that this imperious dictat would have been met with a retort of " Fine - then that's it - we are out of the EU in two years time - discussion over".

    We really should refuse to even discuss the egregious 'divorce' bill - and be prepared to walk away.....instead of just saying that we will if no deal can be agreed.

    I wonder how much of a free hand he has been given.....and naturally, the growing reemergence of the Bremoaning cam p is weakening our own

    negotiating position.....all those Labour Prats claiming that we should stay in the Single Market and the Customs Union - despite the referendum result.

    At least Corbyn has shown his willingness to continue to support the referendum result.....

    I've been toying with the idea of volunteering my services to May, to assist in the negotiations......given a free hand we would be out within a week!! ;0)

  • Are we supposed to care that the EU will be short of moolah after we leave?

    I know I'm not going to be losing any sleep over it that's for sure. :P

    Young boys in the park jumpers for goalpost that's what footballs all about isn't it.

  • If the lack of cash hastens the demise of the EU vanity project I won't be shedding any tears. It could go back to just being a trading bloc as it was when we joined.

    History is much like an Endless Waltz. The three beats of war, peace and revolution continue on forever.

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  • Are we supposed to care that the EU will be short of moolah after we leave?

    I know I'm not going to be losing any sleep over it that's for sure. :P

    Neither am I. If they were that worried about the issue, they would have given Cameron a decent deal when he went to them at the beginning of 2015. They didn't and we chose Brexit.

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  • If the lack of cash hastens the demise of the EU vanity project I won't be shedding any tears. It could go back to just being a trading bloc as it was when we joined.

    Or, the whole thing could collapse entirely and no trade block. That's what they fear on the continent. Look at the Italian unease with the continued migrants crisis, they and Greece and just left to "get on with it." Brexit could the push, that makes the entire house of cards collapse. It's not something I desire or wish for, but it could happen.

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  • I thought hard and long before I voted to leave the EU and nothing that has happened since has made me regret that decision. if the EU tries to make our exit difficult then it will be they that suffers in the long term. If our leaving is the catalysis to the collapse of the EU then it just shows that how it was being run is unsustainable.

    Edited once, last by Jo-G ().

  • I would have no regret whatsoever if the 'EU political union' came crashing down like a pack of cards.........albeit, I would certainly hope that the time scale was such that there would be a minimum of disruption between the end of the unnecessary Political trappings, and its replacement with a bona fide FTA, which is all that was ever needed for the provision of supranational economic growth derived from advantageous tariff free trading.

    I personally believe that could well happen sometime in the future, when the various populations realise that the EU's ultimate ambition IS the formation of the USSE......even though there will undoubtedly be supporters of achieving that end result.....I don't believe that would be the wish of the majority......even in those poorer, net recipient country populations.

    That of course is why the 'downplaying' language of 'ever closer union' is still being used.......

  • I thought hard and long before I voted to leave the EU and nothing that has happened since has made me regret that decision. if the EU tries to make our exit difficult then it will be they that suffers in the long term. If our leaving is the catalysis to the collapse of the EU then it just shows that how it was being run is unsustainable.

    I agree.


    The fact that the EU's accounts have never been cleared by the auditors, indicates serious underlying problems. Better we're out of it, assuming we do leave...

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  • I would have no regret whatsoever if the 'EU political union' came crashing down like a pack of cards.........albeit, I would certainly hope that the time scale was such that there would be a minimum of disruption between the end of the unnecessary Political trappings, and its replacement with a bona fide FTA, which is all that was ever needed for the provision of supranational economic growth derived from advantageous tariff free trading.

    I personally believe that could well happen sometime in the future, when the various populations realise that the EU's ultimate ambition IS the formation of the USSE......even though there will undoubtedly be supporters of achieving that end result.....I don't believe that would be the wish of the majority......even in those poorer, net recipient country populations.

    That of course is why the 'downplaying' language of 'ever closer union' is still being used.......

    I certainly don't wish for a collapse of the EU as that could have serious ramifications for all of us. It's not as if we ever really got on with out European neighbours over the past few thousands years. There has always been war between us.


    But I don't know if the peoples or leaders of the other EU countries know where this is all heading. No one wants a super state, the Germans, French have explicitly said that. But then, what do they want? Macron is pushing for a central treasury, Merkel is luke warm to the idea. But if they leave things as they are, it's too loose and risks debating "the project" and if they integrate further, that could destabilise it too. A mess.

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  • I certainly don't wish for a collapse of the EU as that could have serious ramifications for all of us. It's not as if we ever really got on with out European neighbours over the past few thousands years. There has always been war between us.


    But I don't know if the peoples or leaders of the other EU countries know where this is all heading. No one wants a super state, the Germans, French have explicitly said that. But then, what do they want? Macron is pushing for a central treasury, Merkel is luke warm to the idea. But if they leave things as they are, it's too loose and risks debating "the project" and if they integrate further, that could destabilise it too. A mess.

    The various individual nationals may not wish to form the USSE .... but where do you think the 'ending' of a programme of 'ever closer union' will end??? The collapse of the EU is more tolerable than the formation of the USSE in my view.......but in any event, why the hell is it deemed necessary to have a supranational, and an unelected politburo in order to administer a FTA?

    The people in general well well be overly 'gullible'.....but national politicians are far more pragmatic....and know where the EU is heading. Even Cameron took steps to rewove the EU from the 'ever closer union' movement......for what good that would have done.

    Even now we have the brainwashed, (or missing), Keir Starmer, ( opposition Brexit Secretary),is claiming that we should continue to pay into the EU to access the Single Market, and, if Labour get elected, would put us back, (or remain), in the Customs Union.

    Edited once, last by Stevlin ().