Hammond says transitional deal should end by 2022. What???

  • Chancellor Philip Hammond has said any "transitional deal" in the immediate period after Brexit must end by the time of the next general election.


    He said there must be "business as usual, life as normal" for Britons as the UK exits the EU.

    Hammond on transitional deal

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    Have I missed something here? A transitional deal., when was it confirmed there will be a transitional deal?


    Although, I believe it will be necessary for some interim arrangement post Brexit, I am not sure that of the bulk of the people who voted Brexit, will understand that Brexit won't be the end of the EU's affairs in the UK. Everyone will assume that come April 2019, that's it, we're outta the EU, but a transitional deal would mean there would still be some ties with the EU in some form.

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  • They have been floating the idea of a transitional period for weeks now and it's no doubt the right thing to do.


    The important thing is as Hammond has said today is that it for a finite period in this case it has to end before the 2022 election -- not that I think GE will be in 2922 -- If there is a clear cut off date I think people that voted leave will be OK with it. Like many things Brexit related people want certainty.

  • As I said Slojo, I don't think most people will understand though.


    A majority voted to leave the EU, yet we're still in the EU. We have been told that the 31st March 2019 is Brexit day. I don't think anyone will understand that when they wake up the next day, we will still have substantial ties to the EU for at least a couple of years.

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  • This is a prediction I made a few months back, and it seems that what politicians are saying now, is bringing us ever closer to it.



    As part of the Brexit process pre 'departure' in 2019, I think a transitional arrangement will be agreed which will see us agree to continue to align ourselves to EU rules. We will probably see freedom of movement continue, though there is a slight chance the EU might concede to freedom of movement of workers, not just people. Not that it will mean anything because that's not going to be hard to get around if you really want to come.


    The transitional arrangement will probably be agreed for 5 years with the option to extend that out (probably to 10 years). As a comprehensive free trade agreement could easily take 8-10 years, and that needs to be sorted as part of a the permanent post transition arrangement, that could be sold as reasonable as long as MP's keep saying how committed they are to 'delivering the will of the people, as proven by delivering brexit in 2019'


    In 2028 when the 10 years is looming and the deal is still not quite finalised and there are so many unpalatable compromises for people in terms of what is on the table so far someone will say "look guys the referendum is ancient history now anyway. You've got a whole new generation of voters who never got a say, one of the generations that tipped the balance in favour of leave is now dead", before we do this damned silly thing in this dammed silly way, perhaps we should put it to another vote"


    Then we will have a 2029 referendum with only 6 months before the 10 years is up. We will get cliff edge rhetoric on top of everything else, and we will see the main parties move heaven and earth to get the re-join vote over the line. The EU will join in too - they will say, re-join, no problem. Juncker always set the transitional deal up to keep us aligned so that can all be done without massive headaches, hoping we might 'rejoin the EU boat in the future


    May even dropped the free movement may continue bomb back in April while in Saudi as a subtle hint and so she can say she did tell us when the details of the transitional arrangement become clear - but she delivered her National Trust Easter egg rant at the same time and the real story got buried under that rubbish.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39498647


    Boris Johnson did too

    http://www.independent.co.uk/n…ris-johnson-a7672741.html


    Juncker believes we will re-join the EU one day, and that's what he hopes for. He will work for that lengthy transitional deal using the free trade agreement timescales as a smokescreen and set things up so that can be done quickly and easily - once we have had our breathing space to pause and reflect. http://www.thewestmorlandgazet…d_rejoin_EU_after_Brexit/


    The country is being played, and I think remainers might get their wish in the end. Its got to be done subtly otherwise its not going to look like the government was never sincere in 'delivering the will of the people' and that would be a problem.

  • I think what you have just so well outlined bks, is exactly why a transitional deal will be unpalatable to those of us who voted to leave, because it would be a backdoor way of staying in the EU.


    I generally don't read papers like the mail now, but can you imagine the headline if a transitional deal was agreed and it would last until 2029. "Burn down parliament!", it would scream.


    It's for the reasons you have just said, which is why I think going into kind of transitional arrangement would be very unwise. First the arrangement lasts until 2021-ish, then another extension, then another...


    We either leave the EU in 2019, or we don't.

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  • That's exactly why I predicted it would initially be a 5 year period with the option of extending it.

    Bear in mind, I came up with this theory and first set it out back in April, before any of the comments in recent weeks, and before he EU(W) existed.

    In recent weeks we've had MP's talking about a 2 year transition and now, they are talking possibly 5 years.


    Having read all the whitepapers to date, as well as having read the EU(W) bill from cover to cover, I don't see anything that would allow for a no-deal scenario to be able to be allowed to happen. I don't think anything other than a transitional arrangement is viable because of the way the government has conducted themselves since the referendum. From the way the EU have positioned themselves, I can see they realise this, and its put our negotiators in a much weaker position than they should have been.

  • I agree about the no-deal scenario, I don't think anyone wants that, so really the government should shut up on that one.


    I think our negotiators are in the same position as they always were, so not sure I agree on that. It's May's position that's specifically, been weakened, but I do think we are in a much stronger position than perhaps you believe, bks. Don't forget the money... This is what the EU wants, dosh. The dosh deal, to put it crudely, agreed before any future trade deal or post Brexit arrangements. They want dosh, what do we get? I think we have have a strong hand to play here.


    I can only repeat, if, and I agree it is likely, a transitional deal happens, the vast majority of the public will not understand this and there could be a severe backlash with unforeseen circumstances.


    Perhaps what is required is a bit of Alistair's Campbell's presentation tricks here (he's good at dodgy dossiers...), but a transitional arrangement, should be just that, transitional. I fear, like you have outlined, it will not.

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  • think our negotiators are in the same position as they always were, so not sure I agree on that.

    My point is more that a no-deal scenario is much worse for the EU than it is for the UK. On that basis if the government had prepared for a no-deal scenario and it was a credible threat in that it was a route we could go down in reality, then our negotiators would have a much stronger hand.


    We can't risk a no deal situation because there is no provision for it, so the EU negotiators know its a hollow threat and that we have no choice but to agree a deal. This is why the EU negotiators are being so 'robust' in their demands.


    So you are right in that our negotiators are in the same position that they always were, but my point is that its a weaker position than they should have been in from the outset, and that is a result of the governments' incompetence in formulating the plan, with a particular emphasis on contingencies.


    What annoys me the most is that it is a demonstration that nothing was learned from the Brexit referendum. When they said there was no plan for a brexit outcome it was the truth. It shouldn't have been that way. The government should have been prepared for both outcomes. There was a select committee hearing that concluded as much, but no lessons were learned and the mistake has been repeated.

  • My point is more that a no-deal scenario is much worse for the EU than it is for the UK. On that basis if the government had prepared for a no-deal scenario and it was a credible threat in that it was a route we could go down in reality, then our negotiators would have a much stronger hand.


    We can't risk a no deal situation because there is no provision for it, so the EU negotiators know its a hollow threat and that we have no choice but to agree a deal. This is why the EU negotiators are being so 'robust' in their demands.

    Ah, I see. Ok.

    What annoys me the most is that it is a demonstration that nothing was learned from the Brexit referendum. When they said there was no plan for a brexit outcome it was the truth. It shouldn't have been that way. The government should have been prepared for both outcomes. There was a select committee hearing that concluded as much, but no lessons were learned and the mistake has been repeated.

    Well, the "geezer" who's responsible, scarpered. I am sure Cameron is enjoying every minute of May's difficulties.


    But you highlight one of the main reasons why people voted for Brexit, arrogance of the elite.


    None of our "masters" believes we would ever vote to leave the EU, so they never planned for it. If you've not read the book by Cameron's spin doctor, Craig Oliver, you must. To paraphrase him, once the vote came in, he left Downing Street, walked along a bit and then was violently sick. They didn't see it coming. Their arrogance (ignorance) was so extreme, and this is coming from someone who voted for them too.

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  • Well, the "geezer" who's responsible, scarpered. I am sure Cameron is enjoying every minute of May's difficulties.

    He may have scarpered but May was in his cabinet, and its not as if all the other government ministers or MP's generally are excused from learning the lessons of that situation.


    What's worse is that a select committee was set up to learn lessons, and then when announced the lessons, 'May's team' didn't pay any attention. Its seriously weak governance.


    What worries me is we 'the electorate' are just as incompetent. We keep returning people to parliament despite them demonstrating their incompetence over time, because many of us can't see past our tribal allegiances. If the parties don't put up a credible candidate, then people should be willing to stand/ and vote for credible independent candidates en masse. That Dianne Abbot and Keith Vaz keep being returned is not a good advert for representative democracy. A divisive racist and a proven fraudster - brilliant! good job people !

  • That Dianne Abbot and Keith Vaz keep being returned is not a good advert for representative democracy. A divisive racist and a proven fraudster - brilliant! good job people !

    We already have a thread for her, so I'll restrict my comments about her, to there...:) I've been very restrained, so far.


    He may have scarpered but May was in his cabinet, and its not as if all the other government ministers or MP's generally are excused from learning the lessons of that situation.


    What's worse is that a select committee was set up to learn lessons, and then when announced the lessons, 'May's team' didn't pay any attention. Its seriously weak governance.

    Lessons learnt, lessons must be learnt, lessons to be learnt....


    They never do, do they? They have committees. Get experts in. Reports are written. Reports are shelved, until a load of people (who shouldn't have been in this country to begin with) are burnt to death. Then, reports are undusted. Lots of chat. Lessons to be learned. Reports put back on the shelve again. And the cycle goes on and on.

    What worries me is we 'the electorate' are just as incompetent. We keep returning people to parliament despite them demonstrating their incompetence over time, because many of us can't see past our tribal allegiances.

    I agree.


    As I know from reading your posts on Po Fo UK, you're good on political topics, even if I don't agree with a lot of your politics.


    Perhaps, you might consider starting a topic up at some point about political reform and better ways to do politics. And/or, start a topic about the kind of representatives we get and how the population is largely ignorant or lazy about the whole subject, so we get what we deserve. Thanks.


    You've done pretty good already, bks. You've only been here for five minutes and you've already started substantial political topics up.:):thumbup::thumbup::thumbup:

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  • As I know from reading your posts on Po Fo UK, you're good on political topics, even if I don't agree with a lot of your politics.

    If only half the population agreed with my politics, I'd be PM by now ;)


    Perhaps, you might consider starting a topic up at some point about political reform and better ways to do politics.

    I might revamp and turn my site into something along those lines, and then perhaps in the future could feed off and feed this site with members.

    There is scope for to be so much more than just a couple of threads and it could be quite a good way of boosting SEO for both domains too.

    I will give that some thought.


    You've done pretty good already, bks. You've only been here for five minutes and you've already started substantial political topics up.

    Thanks:) - I noticed the google and yahoo bots were crawling the Scottish posts I put up last night too - bonus!


    I also noticed that they were crawling the forum calendar too by the way - that's not so good as it can hurt the site ranking rather than help it. When I was putting mine together I did come across some code you can insert to stop bots going where you don't want them. Its a while since I looked into it but if you google it you should be able to find it. If the Woltlab platform is anything like the one I was using, they will have a community forum that will usually have hints and tips like that and tell you how/ where to imbed the code in relation to this platform. That might be a better option to try.

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