Leaked document says Brexit will be a disaster

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  • Ministers have sought to play down the leak of a government document predicting an economic hit from Brexit.


    According to BuzzFeed, the report concluded growth would be lower in each of three different Brexit outcomes than if the UK had stayed in the EU.

    Brexit minister Steve Baker told MPs the document was at a "preliminary" stage and "requires further work".

    Jacob Reece-Mogg was on Newsnight last night and he was asked about this story, as it was just breaking at the time.


    He said that the report was based on treasury models, the same sort of models that were used before the referendum vote which said that our economy would collapse if we voted to leave the EU. We voted to leave the EU and armageddon did not happen.


    What he did not say was who might have leaked the report to Buzzfeed, as it was for Cabinet eyes only. Who's in charge of the cabinet?X/:rolleyes:


    I think until we know what, if any deal we get from the EU, or this guff is pure ball gazing and highly speculative.

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  • I think until we know what, if any deal we get from the EU, or this guff is pure ball gazing and highly speculative.

    And from models that completely failed to predict the results after Brexit let alone 15 years into the future. Also the sources were the same as project fear. Totally discredited IMHO.

    History is much like an Endless Waltz. The three beats of war, peace and revolution continue on forever.

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  • Project fear may turn out to be correct, becuase obviously we have not left the EU yet. But everyone has an agenda, and if you're a civil servant compiling one of these models and you're a remainer, I question how subjective the author would really be.

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  • But everyone has an agenda, and if you're a civil servant compiling one of these models and you're a remainer, I question how subjective the author would really be.

    My point exactly. There are far too many Whitehall moles trying to undermine a decent Brexit.

    History is much like an Endless Waltz. The three beats of war, peace and revolution continue on forever.

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  • You obviously haven't been watching the House of Lords this afternoon, Heero. That place is stuffed with people who want to stop Brexit.


    Good job I'm going to see Star Wars in minute to cheer me up (I hope!).

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  • You obviously haven't been watching the House of Lords this afternoon, Heero. That place is stuffed with people who want to stop Brexit.


    Good job I'm going to see Star Wars in minute to cheer me up (I hope!).

    I would like to rephrase that to read 'That place is stuffed with people who do not respect democracy' .... unless it fits their agenda.

    Mark Twain — 'Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.'

  • What staggers me is how these Remainers seem to want to forego everything for the pound in their pockets , what a shallow bunch ,money , money, money!

    How does anyone know what will happen in the future ,past predictions have been so accurate after all!

  • How does anyone know what will happen in the future ,past predictions have been so accurate after all!

    It has about as much credibility as my prediction for the Grand National winner in 2033 from horses that have yet to be born.


    History is much like an Endless Waltz. The three beats of war, peace and revolution continue on forever.

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  • Well with this government a piss up in a brewery would be a disaster.

    Young boys in the park jumpers for goalpost that's what footballs all about isn't it.

  • Keir Starmer is just starting a opposition debate on this matter from Commons now, live.


    And he just said, the government showed him these documents months ago and he had to sign a confidentially agreement not to disclose them.

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  • What staggers me is how these Remainers seem to want to forego everything for the pound in their pockets , what a shallow bunch ,money , money, money!

    How does anyone know what will happen in the future ,past predictions have been so accurate after all!

    You're right, it is money money money. But I don't know why you think that's shallow. Granted, I can't buy all kind of happiness with money but with enough money I can certainly stave off many kinds of misery.


    As you rightly point out, it is a mug's game to forecast the economic consequence of remaining versus or leaving the EU. All I know for certain is this: in the short term (say for the next 5-10 years) there will be more money circulating if we remain in the EU. But in the long run It will be like Gene Kelly Singing In The Rain, joyfully kick-splashing the water without noticing it is is disappearing down the drain. That's enough time for me to sell up and rent before Britannia sinks below the waves. As for all the sanctimonious crap about the future of our children and grandchildren, well, they will get what they wished for, which was to Remain, so as to continue to get pissed and throw up in streets all over Europe without having to queue up for too long in airports or pay anything more than a rock bottom airfare.


    As for what we might be foregoing by Remaining, remind me again what we are really losing:


    1) Sovereign Rule by a bunch of (a) greedy toffs or money grabbers or (b) Marxist looters living high on the hog by fleecing the tax payers who voted them in.


    2( English Justice in all its pageantry, pedantry and unfairness. I don't see that EU's higher court in Luxembourg can do much additional harm and in some cases can right a wrong


    3) Uncontrolled borders leading to an unstoppable influx of migrants who will, intentionally or not, destroy the fabric of British society (such as it is). This is a spurious foregoing inasmuch as it has always been within the power of the UK to exercise some degree of border control and stretch EU rules - with the amount we pay into EU this was always possible - probably no longer now that the EU knows it can kick us around.


    PS


    Theresa May said tonight to Gary Gibbon of Ch 4 TV that the report is still in progress, not yet completed - and one other thing she pointed out - 3 times actually, in response to increasing probing questions on the report - wait for it, newsflash: she is seeking to get the best deal for Britain.


    Why is anyone debating the finer points of Brexit when the most important issue facing Britain right now is that negotiations are in the hands of a prime minister who has a massive personality defect, or a communication impairment, or is mentally ill, or all three? More disturbing, what does that say about Tory MP's and the British people who still voted for her when these characteristics were obvious.

  • Rob , the reason I say these people are shallow is they presumably would welcome Adolf Hitler if he made them richer , all you hear from the remainer press and devout remoaners is the economic side and the effect it may have on their pockets, the freedom to run your own affairs seems very , very low on their list of priorities , i will do without a few quid if it means my vote will actually matter and our laws are once again passed by our parliament.

    As for your last point about Mrs May , she was still more palatable to the electorate than comrade Corbyn and his Looney tunes party!

  • The issue is and that vote just brought things centre stage is that their are two camps of people, or two ways of thinking in this country.


    There are those who believe that all the countries of the word should merge together and we all become one people and hug fluffy bunnies around the camp fire while singing songs like "we are the world" or "world in motion".


    The other group believes in strong sovereign states where peoples of the world all partake in trade with each other and have cultural exchanges, but otherwise concentrate on their own affairs first and foremost.


    One group are idealists, the other group are the practical ones and see the world for how it is today, not how it maybe in a thousand years.

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  • Rob , the reason I say these people are shallow is they presumably would welcome Adolf Hitler if he made them richer , all you hear from the remainer press and devout remoaners is the economic side and the effect it may have on their pockets, the freedom to run your own affairs seems very , very low on their list of priorities , i will do without a few quid if it means my vote will actually matter and our laws are once again passed by our parliament.

    As for your last point about Mrs May , she was still more palatable to the electorate than comrade Corbyn and his Looney tunes party!

    I suspect these so-called shallow people could welcome an Adolph Hitler if, like Merkel, he boosted German productivity and political-economic importance across Europe. But I'd like to think these shallow people would pause for thought if the downside of this improved wealth and power was concentration camps which gassed 8 million people who fell short of Germany's Aryan standards.


    As for your vote actually mattering, I wish you the best of British luck in choosing between a rock and a hard place. I have no reason to believe that un-elected EU politicians would be any worse that what our voters put into Westminster. As for laws passed by our Parliament compared with EU Laws, I think that argument is angels on a pinhead. What is it we are worried about? Straight bananas ? A too strict minimum % horsemeat in supermarket burgers? As for the EU legalities of free movement I'm sure Britain can stretch those rules to the limit so as to be less of a pushover to migrants looking for state handouts .... provided Britain is not so pathetically stupid as to ask the EU for permission on the "finer points of detail" of border control.


    As for Theresa May, I would agree that she is not momentously worse than Jeremy Corbyn, Adolph Hitler, Ghengis Khan, Ayotolla Khomeina, Dan Quayle. But "more palatable", for those who want their vote to "actually matter" and are willing to "do without a few quid", is that to be the new voting criterion for choosing or retaining a Prime Minister. Of course, I don't how you define palatability. Is it her hemline or something vaguely endearing about not being to say more than hello without a script? To people with mental problems I don't mind donating money but not I don't want to donate my vote to enable to be Prime Minister.







    not being pushovers