Nicola's continued push for Indyref 2

Please treat other members in a friendly and respectful manner: Our Community Guidelines.

  • I see Nicola is issuing veiled threats about legal action if she doesn't get another Indyref from a Tory government.


    See here for details


    In my opinion she seems to have conflated the Scottish people voting for SNP with a desire for independence. I'm not convinced that this is the case. The Scots, who I absolutely adore by the way, do have a mischievous streak which manifests itself in current times by sending a bunch of SNP members to Westminster where they vote en-masse against every single proposal the government makes whilst getting their leader (Ian Blackford) to take the floor to make the most outrageous accusations about Boris and the Tories at every opportunity. Not once can I recall the SNP positively contributing to Westminster proceedings. They are sent from Scotland as a protest to create havoc and mayhem to the democratic process which of late has been very effective after they joined forces with Labour, Lib Dems and the Tory rebels to form the remain alliance to block Brexit and a General Election with the sole intent of leaving Boris hog-tied and dangling in public, a ploy which was very successfully executed I must say. Especially disingenuous to then accuse Boris of being a liar for failing to deliver Brexit after his "no if's, no but's" pledge, as if the public would be stupid enough to fall for that.


    I've been trying to understand exactly what drives Nicola and whether or not she really really wants independence or not. I've come to the conclusion after some deliberation that she doesn't, not really. So what is she playing at?


    First up - Lets take a look at the consequences of Scotland voting for Independence in a hypothetical Indyref 2. I assume there would be a process for putting in place all the arrangements for going independent over an agreed timescale, a bit like the Article 50 process for Brexit. During that period Scotland would negotiate its new relationship with the rest of the UK and they would get whatever we felt like giving them, much the same as the EU/UK negotiations. The message would be very clear that you will never have a better deal than you have already, they would probably choose to ignore that message, just like we have with Brexit (lets face it, if we were really driven by our economic prospects alone we would not Brexit). The discussions would also cover such issues, I assume, as Scottish currency, defence, repatriation of UK military assets, the UK rail system and its future relationship with Scotland, airspace control, the BBC and other broadcast media, the NHS assets to be returned to the UK, the border issue and customs, the rights of Scots living in the UK and vice versa, future UK/SCO trading arrangements, gas and oil revenues and hundreds of other matters (I've just listed a few of the more difficult issues here).


    I imagine that Nicola feels that she will be able to dodge all of these difficult issues by hitting us with her trump card which will be automatic entry to the EU which will totally reverse the dynamic of the Indy negotiations I am sure you will agree. If this should be the situation we will end up with a hard border between SCO and England and the EU will do it without any hesitation because there is no Good Friday Agreement crap to make them think twice. I think the EU would delight in putting a hard border at the north of England and Nicola would be just as happy, she would really have stuck it to us wouldn't she? And the final icing on the cake would be SCO sitting within the EU trade umbrella dishing out crap deals to the UK. I could imagine under this scenario there would be a lot of voices keen for the UK to rejoin the EU. Lets face it Scotland in the EU and the rest of the UK not will be very bad indeed. Of course everyone says that Scotland won't qualify to join the EU but that doesn't mean much when it is to the EU's advantage and this scenario would be able exert unbearable pressure on the UK to rejoin.


    OK - got that off my chest...


    Now, should there be another Indyref I do not think that Scotland would vote for independence any more this time than last time and Nicola knows this. Notwithstanding my doomsday scenario above I actually think the Scots like being part of the UK, it makes sense, it creates a satisfying whole and the entire land mass is kept safe and secure (mostly). Now Nicola is an activist, a protester, and furthermore she is proven to be absolutely crap as a first minister. The Scottish economy, despite being given more government money per head than the rest of the UK seem to be a bad shape with particularly poor NHS performance, education, crime and drugs problems, despite the socialist approach being applied to the problem for many years now.


    So what does this mean?


    Well I think it means that should Scotland find itself independent there would be new elections fairly soon afterwards. I imagine the UK would insist that Scotland held democratic elections as part of the independence negotiations and at this point Nicola would have to convince her countrymen (and women) that she was the right person to lead the nation now that it didn't have UK money to fritter away on social projects that were never available in the remainder of the UK. I'm not sure that she would do so well under these circumstances and she may find herself being booted out. For Nicola independence is all about power and not really about independence at all. As this stands she can be an influential thorn in the side of the British establishment and probably carve out a better deal for Scotland as a result, and currently be part of a rebel group that could hold Boris away from a majority. That is much more power than she would have as the ex-first minister of an independent Scotland.


    Therefore I think that Nicola will rattle away about independence from time to time like old faithful blowing off, but she doesn't really want it...


    ...unless she really does have an automatic entry to the EU lined up.

  • Lots to get stuck into there.... on Sturgeon herself, she'll never let it go. She's not a democrat, she said she would respect the result of the last indy referendum and hasn't, so that says what kind of person she is.


    Let me digest the rest and I'll comment soon. And congrats on your first thread Armitage.8)

    If my post is in this colour, it is a moderator decision. Please abide by it.

  • In my opinion she seems to have conflated the Scottish people voting for SNP with a desire for independence. I'm not convinced that this is the case

    I think that was case twenty or so years ago, but I do think there is a real desire to be independent among many of the population now.

    I've been trying to understand exactly what drives Nicola and whether or not she really really wants independence or not. I've come to the conclusion after some deliberation that she doesn't, not really. So what is she playing

    No, no. I've think she really wants independence. It's something she's wanted her whole life.


    During that period Scotland would negotiate its new relationship with the rest of the UK and they would get whatever we felt like giving them, much the same as the EU/UK negotiations.

    :D I think it would have to be negotiated and don't assume that process would be over quickly, take the break up of Czechoslovakia as an example. That took ten years to work out how to divide assets and in some regards, they're still quarrelling over some things to this day.

    If my post is in this colour, it is a moderator decision. Please abide by it.

  • I imagine that Nicola feels that she will be able to dodge all of these difficult issues by hitting us with her trump card which will be automatic entry to the EU which will totally reverse the dynamic of the Indy negotiations I am sure you will agree. If this should be the situation we will end up with a hard border between SCO and England and the EU will do it without any hesitation because there is no Good Friday Agreement crap to make them think twice. I think the EU would delight in putting a hard border at the north of England and Nicola would be just as happy, she would really have stuck it to us wouldn't she? And the final icing on the cake would be SCO sitting within the EU trade umbrella dishing out crap deals to the UK. I could imagine under this scenario there would be a lot of voices keen for the UK to rejoin the EU. Lets face it Scotland in the EU and the rest of the UK not will be very bad indeed. Of course everyone says that Scotland won't qualify to join the EU but that doesn't mean much when it is to the EU's advantage and this scenario would be able exert unbearable pressure on the UK to rejoin.

    Spain would drag its heals over allowing a independent Scotland to join the EU, as would some other countries like Belgium, so I don't think the border issues you cite would be something to worry about in the short to medium term.


    Now, should there be another Indyref I do not think that Scotland would vote for independence any more this time than last time and Nicola knows this. Notwithstanding my doomsday scenario above I actually think the Scots like being part of the UK, it makes sense, it creates a satisfying whole and the entire land mass is kept safe and secure (mostly). Now Nicola is an activist, a protester, and furthermore she is proven to be absolutely crap as a first minister. The Scottish economy, despite being given more government money per head than the rest of the UK seem to be a bad shape with particularly poor NHS performance, education, crime and drugs problems, despite the socialist approach being applied to the problem for many years now.

    I've no idea how the Scots would vote now and it's not something I would like to find out in my lifetime. They voted before and that's that. It was too close before, I wouldn't want to go again.


    Well I think it means that should Scotland find itself independent there would be new elections fairly soon afterwards. I imagine the UK would insist that Scotland held democratic elections as part of the independence negotiations and at this point Nicola would have to convince her countrymen (and women) that she was the right person to lead the nation now that it didn't have UK money to fritter away on social projects that were never available in the remainder of the UK.

    If the Scots vote to leave the UK, then we (in the rest of the UK) could insist nothing. Scotland would be a de facto independent country from the time of the election result, even if various details of separation needed to be worked out. And besides, why would we be interested in telling the Scots whether they've got to have elections or not? If they've voted to separate from us, that's it. Adios. I wouldn't be the slightly bit interested what they do up there.


    ...unless she really does have an automatic entry to the EU lined up.

    I doubt it and it's not in her power anyway.

    If my post is in this colour, it is a moderator decision. Please abide by it.

  • I think that was case twenty or so years ago, but I do think there is a real desire to be independent among many of the population now.

    No, no. I've think she really wants independence. It's something she's wanted her whole life.


    :D I think it would have to be negotiated and don't assume that process would be over quickly, take the break up of Czechoslovakia as an example. That took ten years to work out how to divide assets and in some regards, they're still quarrelling over some things to this day.

    I think it is easy to be drawn to the conclusion that Scotland wants independence because of the noisy minority. A lot of the SNP voters really just want to have a strong voice in Westminster that can perhaps disrupt proceedings particularly for the Tories. They may go quiet on independence if there is a Labour government as they don’t hate them as much as they do the Conservatives.


    The negotiations would have to be over a defined period to stop the Czech situation arising. We need to learn from our own experience as well that you shouldn’t start something unless you have a detailed plan of how you are going to implement already written down:/


    I think we would insist there were elections in the very near aftermath as it would be a responsible thing for the departing government to do. Nicola is a socialist who has been used to power and she will not want to give it up once independent and we don’t want a socialist dictatorship as our closest neighbour do we? However, like Churchill who was a great leader for war he was removed immediately afterwards and I think this is Nicola’s destiny as well. I think she is aware of this distinct possibility as well as the relative lack of power and influence she will have in the world post independence. Once independent she will be woefully exposed as the total fraud shyster she is. At the moment she can create some havoc in Westminster and get re elected all day long. I don’t think she will ever have more power than she has now. I think she realises all this because she isn’t stupid so she needs to talk the talk from time to time.


    As I have a strong distrust of the EU it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if she has an agreement with them for fast track membership post independence. The Spanish can be silenced anytime and as they don’t like the us that much either they would probably enjoy watching the UK squirm with the prospect of the EU insisting on a hard border to protect the integrity of the single market and foreign troops rocking up in Scotland to offer protection as they don’t have their own military.


    However, as I also firmly believe that Nicola won’t survive the first elections post independence none of this is likely to happen. Power is what she wants, independence is just the unique selling point for keeping it. If you can make enough people angry about something they will vote for you, if you can blame somebody else for not delivering it i.e. blame the Westminster government, then you are set for life. She doesn’t want independence that’ll be too much like hard work and it will destroy Scotland and her.

  • Strange isn't it to want out of the union of the UK but to want to remain in the union of the EU

    "Better together" and all that

    A Hand Up Not A Hand Out

  • I think it is easy to be drawn to the conclusion that Scotland wants independence because of the noisy minority.

    But it's not a minority though. 1,617,989 people voted for independence.



    As I have a strong distrust of the EU it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if she has an agreement with them for fast track membership post independence. The Spanish can be silenced anytime and as they don’t like the us that much either they would probably enjoy watching the UK squirm with the prospect of the EU insisting on a hard border to protect the integrity of the single market and foreign troops rocking up in Scotland to offer protection as they don’t have their own military.

    The Spanish have a veto on new members and as they have their own separation issues, a independent Scotland would have a long road ahead of it, in my opinion, to get membership of the EU.

    However, as I also firmly believe that Nicola won’t survive the first elections post independence none of this is likely to happen. Power is what she wants, independence is just the unique selling point for keeping it. If you can make enough people angry about something they will vote for you, if you can blame somebody else for not delivering it i.e. blame the Westminster government, then you are set for life. She doesn’t want independence that’ll be too much like hard work and it will destroy Scotland and her.

    Lets see what happens to the SNP vote in a few weeks. If it weakens, then the independence issue may eventually fade, but if the SNP retain their vote or strengthens it, you can be sure Sturgeon will be banging those Braveheart drums loudly for another indy vote.


    I take the point that it's good from the SNP's position to have a fall guy and blame everything on Westminster, but I think the independence issue goes way beyond the SNP itself

    If my post is in this colour, it is a moderator decision. Please abide by it.

  • I would quite happily give Scotland it's independence, as I would support the reunification of Ireland to reduce the drain on our Exchequer

    A Hand Up Not A Hand Out

  • I would quite happily give Scotland it's independence, as I would support the reunification of Ireland to reduce the drain on our Exchequer

    We could afford to be more obviously English under those circumstances. I could get on board with that. As long as these ex British fragments didn’t join the EU. Obviously Northern Ireland would but they aren't really leaving anyway as far as I know under the Boris version of the WA.

  • I would quite happily give Scotland it's independence, as I would support the reunification of Ireland to reduce the drain on our Exchequer

    I would never "give" Scotland its independence, it would be a disaster for those of us in England. What if Putin wanted a new port for himself...?

    If my post is in this colour, it is a moderator decision. Please abide by it.

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member to leave a comment.