Brexit: One year to go. Will it all work out in the end?

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  • Whether the EU deal is voted in Parliament as acceptable or unacceptable and whether, regardless, Parliament then votes to carry on negotiating for a better deal (because "acceptable" is not good enough")

    Nobody has said what happens next if parliament votes against the deal. I assume it will be a fait accompli, because the government can't negotiate another deal, so whatever deal is agreed with the EU, parliament has to accept. But if they don't...

    Whether Parliament votes for a second referendum
    Whether a second referendum outcome is to leave but too wafer thin an edge for Parliament to decide what to do next
    Whether a second referendum outcome is to remain, in which case the UK will be the world's laughing stock and a political-economic basket case

    I think the chance of second referendum is dwindling now, unless Ms Miller, Tony Blair etc all try some stunt at the courts. I wouldn't put it past them. The sacking of Owen Jones but Corbyn earlier in the week illustrates that Labour will not call a second referendum.

  • Whether Corbyn (or some other Labour leader) pledges in the next General Election to negotiate a better deal or remain in the EU or both or neither or whatever some creep in Labour thinks its brain-dead supporters want to hear
    Whether at the next General Election Blair steps into Labour's black hole on a Remain platform

    Well, they won't be able to try and stay in the EU because by then we would have left the EU. As for Blair, he's keeping a higher profile again, so I'd put nothing past him, but Labour has lurched to the hard left now and they'll stay like that for a generation, I reckon. Perhaps TB will create a new "third way" party called the Messiahs.8o

    Whether Britain become so poor that it is no longer an attraction to economic migrants
    Whether other EU member states are getting twitchy enough to want to break away
    Whether Germany dumps Merkel
    Whether Macron dials back on EU federalisation to improve his power base within the EU
    Whether enough Tory MP's have enough sense and backbone to get rid of that mental cripple posing as UK prime minister

    On migrants, I'm hoping less will come here anyway regardless of our wealth.

    Time will tell about the long term future of the EU. It all depends how far down the federal route they go and whether the other countries will accept Germany's total dominion over them.

    The Germans had their chance to dump Merkel, she's still there for now.

    Don't know much about Macron or his ambitions, but the French keep insisting that the EU as a whole takes on the debt of poorer EU countries knowing full well it's the Germans who will have to cough up the dosh.

    May's future, I suggest, will be decided in the next six months.

  • Whether the EU is obstructing or spinning out the negotiation because it knows that this will debilitate the UK's economic and social well-being
    Whether informal trading negotiations with non-EU countries indicate cold comfort
    Whether the true strategy being employed by UK government is to extend the period of transition indefinitely, to bore citizens into numb indifference, at which point the UK remains within the EU. Within this strategy the UK might negotiate with the EU to agree some face-saving useless advantage in return for not having a vote with other member states, which can be spun as an indication of sovereign independence and hence democracy, and which is hardly a disadvantage when a vote within the madhouse of 27 member states is not worth spit.

    If the EU obstructs now, that will harm the interests of other countries. Lets see what happens over the next six months. Will it be "one for all" or "everyman for himself?"

    On trade agreements with others, India has already been lukewarm due to our commitment on cutting down on migrants. Again, time will tell on this.

    Your last paragraph, we've talked about a lot on this site. I certainly hope that doesn't happen. If we stay quasi in the EU, pay into their coffers without having any say in the running of the EU, that would cause riots on British streets. I don't think, think, the government would be that stupid.

  • On trade agreements with others, India has already been lukewarm due to our commitment on cutting down on migrants. Again, time will tell on this.

    Your last paragraph, we've talked about a lot on this site. I certainly hope that doesn't happen. If we stay quasi in the EU, pay into their coffers without having any say in the running of the EU, that would cause riots on British streets. I don't think, think, the government would be that stupid.

    Sure, India wants to protect its migrants. No problem. It's a matter of degree and will depend on whether we're buying from or selling to India. Mutual back-scratching is what it's all about. I'm sure most of us would rather cut down on migrants who are Muslim than Indian. I'd rather have a good curry than a sand rissole or a leg blown off.

    We'll never have any say in the running of the EU, so quasi is good enough. It will always be like punching a giant feather cushion

    As for riots in the streets of Britain, so what? Hardly a day goes by without one?

  • I do think we will get a trade deal with the EU; it is in the interest of both sides that we do. That being the case, I don't understand the pessimism from the remainers, because this would ensure that our trade with the EU would be much as it is now, plus we will be able to do our own trade deals with other countries. That means more trade, not less, and it would increase our prosperity.

    There are a few problems that concern me, however. Unless I have misread the way things are going, it seems that we will not be able to incorporate financial services into the trade deal. This would be an issue for us, so we will need to get as close as possible to where we want to be with our negotiations.

    Migration is of concern also, because without the skills that we are currently getting from the EU and elsewhere, some sectors will struggle to keep going if the Government does not have in place a sensible framework which will allow employers to recruit from outside the UK. In time, our apprenticeships and training programmes should narrow this skills shortage gap, but our main problem is in the shorter term. If the Government is too gung-ho in its appproach to immigration in an effort to woo certain parts of the electorate, that could spell trouble for industry.

    I am not so worried about the Irish border problem because this will be much easier to resolve with a trading agreement. Nor am I concerned about having an implementation period, because industry needs time to adapt to whatever new rules we apply, and no-one will know that until the negotiations are complete.

    I know many people are frustrated with the process, but given this is a complex negotiation with a hostile EU, I don't know what people were expecting!

  • I do think we will get a trade deal with the EU; it is in the interest of both sides that we do. That being the case, I don't understand the pessimism from the remainers, because this would ensure that our trade with the EU would be much as it is now, plus we will be able to do our own trade deals with other countries. That means more trade, not less, and it would increase our prosperity.

    They just don't want to leave the EU, old boy and as I said in reply to another post, I expect Gina Miller and co will take the matter back to court soon. Don't forget the EU is not about trade about a liberal idealism of a united Europe. Someone forgot to pass the note to Putin about that one.

    There are a few problems that concern me, however. Unless I have misread the way things are going, it seems that we will not be able to incorporate financial services into the trade deal. This would be an issue for us, so we will need to get as close as possible to where we want to be with our negotiations.

    The financial services will be in there, but not be able to use the passporting rules we currently enjoy. If the EU isolate the City too much, they will hurt themselves too as most of the funds raised by EU companies are done via the City.

    Migration is of concern also, because without the skills that we are currently getting from the EU and elsewhere, some sectors will struggle to keep going if the Government does not have in place a sensible framework which will allow employers to recruit from outside the UK. In time, our apprenticeships and training programmes should narrow this skills shortage gap, but our main problem is in the shorter term. If the Government is too gung-ho in its appproach to immigration in an effort to woo certain parts of the electorate, that could spell trouble for industry.

    May is very pro-immigration, so I don't think you should worry on this matter. I'm very hard-line on this issue and I don't see why we need hordes of foreign labour to pick fruit and veg in Norfolk or wherever, when there is plenty of unemployed here.

    I agree with you about apprenticeships, but not many companies like to fund training schemes now, so this is something the government needs to look at.

  • I do think we will get a trade deal with the EU; it is in the interest of both sides that we do. That being the case, I don't understand the pessimism from the remainers, because this would ensure that our trade with the EU would be much as it is now, plus we will be able to do our own trade deals with other countries. That means more trade, not less, and it would increase our prosperity.

    I fear the EU wants to compete with the UK more than it wants to expand the EU's share of the global market. This is because it perceives the UK as a rival player rather than team player. I think they could be right

    There are a few problems that concern me, however. Unless I have misread the way things are going, it seems that we will not be able to incorporate financial services into the trade deal. This would be an issue for us, so we will need to get as close as possible to where we want to be with our negotiations.

    I'm not sure that the factors governing a trade deal have any relevance to services, other than compliance with rules and regulations that prevent misconduct or lack of probity

    Migration is of concern also, because without the skills that we are currently getting from the EU and elsewhere, some sectors will struggle to keep going if the Government does not have in place a sensible framework which will allow employers to recruit from outside the UK. In time, our apprenticeships and training programmes should narrow this skills shortage gap, but our main problem is in the shorter term. If the Government is too gung-ho in its approach to immigration in an effort to woo certain parts of the electorate, that could spell trouble for industry.

    I thought the only aim was to control UK borders against migrants that are a danger to home security or a drain on resources or a disruption of the social fabric. In other words, quality rather than just quantity

  • I know many people are frustrated with the process, but given this is a complex negotiation with a hostile EU, I don't know what people were expecting!

    I was expecting leadership, clarity and an average ability to respond to questions like a human being rather than a damaged android whereas what we have is a complete embarrassment.

  • I was expecting leadership, clarity and an average ability to respond to questions like a human being rather than a damaged android whereas what we have is a complete embarrassment.

    The problem with May is leaving the EU is a conflict of interest for her, as she wants the UK to remain, she will never fully be behind leaving and that is blindingly obvious in the way she has handled Brexit.

  • I thought the only aim was to control UK borders against migrants that are a danger to home security or a drain on resources or a disruption of the social fabric. In other words, quality rather than just quantity

    I dream a dream.... I'll believe it when it happens.

    I fear the EU wants to compete with the UK more than it wants to expand the EU's share of the global market. This is because it perceives the UK as a rival player rather than team player. I think they could be right

    You're probably right. When/if we leave, by the very definition we will be separate from the EU and a potential competitor to them.

    The upcoming trade negotiations will probably give them guarantees on things like the UK not being a tax haven (as you mentioned earlier) or doing things to undercut the EU.

  • I dream a dream.... I'll believe it when it happens.

    You're probably right. When/if we leave, by the very definition we will be separate from the EU and a potential competitor to them.

    The upcoming trade negotiations will probably give them guarantees on things like the UK not being a tax haven (as you mentioned earlier) or doing things to undercut the EU.

    The nightmare scenario is not that the EU will steamroller the UK into economic and social ruin but that we will lie down on the tarmac and let them do it

  • Indeed. As Home Secretary she was always pro-EU as she believed that staying in the bloc was better for our security.

    Do the remainers think that giving your country away willingly to the Brussels elite is better than having it taken away by force, I wonder?

    Mark Twain — 'Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.'

  • The problem with May is leaving the EU is a conflict of interest for her, as she wants the UK to remain, she will never fully be behind leaving and that is blindingly obvious in the way she has handled Brexit.

    There are 2 ways of dealing with a conflict of interest

    1) Resolve the conflict one way or the other - and if it's to leave, then negotiate to leave without subterfuge, phoney labels or dragging this country's feet - and if it's to remain, then stand down as leader on this issue which is more important to this country's future than anything else, and recuse yourself from working on EU negotiations in any government capacity.

    2) Live with the conflict, sit on the fence, waiver, be indecisive and uncommunicative, but recuse yourself from holding any position in government where making or supporting a decision is part of the job.

    With the conflict unresolved, to be leader of this country and hence leader of negotiations is immoral.

    The more serious problem is that the Conservative Party lacks the courage and integrity to address this obvious problem.

    And the Labour and Liberal parties are holding back from nailing their colours to the mast until they can be sure which position is most likely to win votes at t he next General Election

    It is a major reason why there is so little trust and respect for Government in this country.

  • I was expecting leadership, clarity and an average ability to respond to questions like a human being rather than a damaged android whereas what we have is a complete embarrassment.

    I think you are expecting too much from Theresa May. If you are expecting her to give you chapter and verse on what her perceived outcome is, you will be disappointed. This is a difficult negotiation with a difficult bunch of Europhiles, and on top of that she is hampered by a lack of a majority and an unco-operative Opposition. Every word uttered on the subject is mulled over by all sides and pulled apart.

    It is also a complex negotiation, and Theresa May cannot risk alienating the public with complexities that will be not understood or misunderstood and then seized on by malcontents on each side. Yes, it may sound a bit robotic at times, but the messages about what we are trying to achieve really needs to be very simple.

    We will not be a member of the Common Market. We will not be in the Customs Union. These are simple messages to put across, and even then you see both sides scrapping over the meaning of that, which is straight forward enough in my book.

    While Theresa May voted on the remain side in the referendum, nobody should hold that against her - she is entitled to her opinion, like everyone else. But one senses that she was the only politician who had a clear sense of how to go about leaving with a favourable deal from the EU. She picked up the mantle and she is carrying out the wishes of the electorate.

    She is half way there already, and if she succeeds, as I believe she will, we will have the best of both worlds - continuing tariff free trade with the EU at similar levels as now, together with the ability to strike our own deals with the rest of the world, with all the increased prosperity that will bring. Such a deal will be good news for most remainers and leavers.

    Unhappiness with the transitional period I do not understand. Do people really expect industry to be able to adapt overnight to the new arrangements? Clearly, they will need time to make these changes, and indeed the government will need to have arrangements in place, at our borders for example, before the new regime kicks in.

    All in all, I think TM is doing a pretty good job in spite of that giant millstone she's got around her neck.

  • She is half way there already, and if she succeeds, as I believe she will, we will have the best of both worlds - continuing tariff free trade with the EU at similar levels as now, together with the ability to strike our own deals with the rest of the world, with all the increased prosperity that will bring. Such a deal will be good news for most remainers and leavers.

    The EU's guidelines for the forthcoming trade talks with us which was released just before Easter, set out that they want tariff free trade too, so hopefully that will be one positive outcome of all this.

    Unhappiness with the transitional period I do not understand. Do people really expect industry to be able to adapt overnight to the new arrangements? Clearly, they will need time to make these changes, and indeed the government will need to have arrangements in place, at our borders for example, before the new regime kicks in.

    I think in many areas, business' can adapt quickly, but your point about borders I agree with. That will take time to sort out.

  • I wonder how much the nonsense of sticking the UKs nose into Syria will further delay Brexit, will certainly work as a distraction from the shambles of it which should please May.

  • It shouldn't effect it at all, but that said, I've read a few political biographies from politicians and their advisers and various people have said that when major events do happen, a government's time is taken up with the major event and not getting on with daily business.

    Although we have hundreds of Brexit negotiators now, there is one prime minister and one Brexit secretary to oversea everything. If May is dealing with bombing Assad, or worse, dealing with the Russians, then she will be preoccupied with that and Brexit.

    Good point, Ron.

  • Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein said he is surprised there hasn’t been “more of a dramatic effect” due to the Brexit vote, but thinks the full consequences are yet to be seen.

    In an interview with POLITICO Thursday in Brussels, Blankfein said the U.K. economy has remained healthy despite the vote, but post Brexit other EU capitals will see their economies growing due to relocating banks.

    “For us, it will be the bigger economies of Frankfurt and Paris,” he said, noting that Brexit will require “more distribution of [the bank] than otherwise we would have.”

    Goldman’s European headquarter is in London, where the bank is currently building a new base worth €1 billion. That will remain the company’s European center, Blankfein said, but added that if Goldman had known Brexit would happen, “we might have made a different decision.”

    So another remoaner is proved wrong. :)

  • Just to play devil's advocate here, Brexit is not until next March and the real Brexit, subject to agreement, doesn't start until 2021. So, we're somewhat off seeing the effects of our decision at the moment. But despite what Cameron and his "mate" Osbourne said, the world hasn't fallen in yet.

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