Brexit: One year to go. Will it all work out in the end?

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  • Just to play devil's advocate here, Brexit is not until next March and the real Brexit, subject to agreement, doesn't start until 2021. So, we're somewhat off seeing the effects of our decision at the moment. But despite what Cameron and his "mate" Osbourne said, the world hasn't fallen in yet.

    ....And it's not likely to, either. I'm afraid that there are many people in this world who do not like change and are fearful of the consequences it may bring. However, when we look back, we can see how change can bring about many advantages, some of which were not even envisaged at the time.

    In the case of Brexit, I think that most remainers honestly believe that there will be a big fall off of trade with the EU, whereas the truth is that there will be little change, plus we will be able to increase our share of world trade by entering into our own trade deals.

    We will also be able to pocket a huge proportion of the money we currently send to the EU. So where, exactly, is the downside? There is a lot of work to be done to ensure our borders are managed appropriately and without the delays that could happen if this is not thought through, and of course we need to get those trade deals done with all the countries we want to trade with, but if we get this right, the advantages to the UK of pulling out of this huge bureaucratic monstrocity of an organisation known as the EU are enormous.

    We will regain our own sovereignty and we will be able to control who comes into and leaves the country to boot.

  • I think it all depends on what deal we get, Old Boy, assuming we get one, especially with regards to financial services.

    As for the saving money bit, its in our interests that we stay closely aligned with several European institutions, especially in regards to trade and crime, so I'll suspect we'll still be paying our share for those organisations in some indirect way.

    I think the biggest issue is our borders. We could have far better border control now regardless of whether we leave the EU or not, and the controls on Russia have shown what could be done if there are "elements" coming to this country we are unhappy about.

    I'm hopeful we'll get it right, just wish we have a leaver as our prime minister.

  • I'm just hoping that now May has shown that she has a bit of passion and backbone when she was talking about trying to rid the world of chemical weapons she seemed almost human, that she now use some of that new found passion and backbone to negotiate the best Brexit deal for the UK instead of being like the wet lettuce she has up to now.

  • I'm just hoping that now May has shown that she has a bit of passion and backbone when she was talking about trying to rid the world of chemical weapons she seemed almost human, that she now use some of that new found passion and backbone to negotiate the best Brexit deal for the UK instead of being like the wet lettuce she has up to now.

    I don't know why you say that, Ron. I appreciate the frustration people feel about not knowing what is going to happen, but this is a negotiation. TM is having to tread a very fine line to ensure that a major fall out doesn't happen between remainers and Brexiteers, including in her own party, and ensuring that we do not say anything that leads to a major upset within the EU, and yet at the same time letting the EU know we mean business. The situation would be bad enough for her if she had a decent majority in Parliament, but everything is so tenuous.

    And yet, despite the naysayers, TM has got us past Phase I which many thought she would not achieve, and it looks very much that we will get a suitable trade deal with no tariffs. Sure, there are still problems to be overcome, but we know through the Cameron experience that if you trounce of to Europe proclaiming what you are going to get, you come back with your tail between your legs.

    Don't think for one moment that TM and her team don't have a plan to overcome the borders issue. They will reveal it when it is time.

    The only worries I have concern financial services, but I would be very surprised if the UK Government didn't have an arrangement in mind to overcome the passporting problem. Anyway, Horizon says that will be all right...?

  • Oi!, don't blame me if it all goes wrong on financial services!:P

    She's got us past phase 1, true, by giving into the EU on every one of their main demands so far, especially on money. I'll be optimistic and hope for the best, but going by this government's current performance, there are at least some worries, but as you say OB, she has to tread a fine line between two diametrically sides and that's just within her own government.

  • Oi!, don't blame me if it all goes wrong on financial services!:P

    She's got us past phase 1, true, by giving into the EU on every one of their main demands so far, especially on money. I'll be optimistic and hope for the best, but going by this government's current performance, there are at least some worries, but as you say OB, she has to tread a fine line between two diametrically sides and that's just within her own government.

    Ha ha!

    I don't think that we have been caving in to the EU, though. We agreed to stump up £40bn, (not £100 bn+) to recognise our budget commitments, we have secured an acceptance that we can negotiate trade deals during the implementation period, etc. We can't expect to get our own way on everything, but I think it is going OK so far, to be honest. The rights of Brits abroad and EU citizens over here seem to be reasonable in all the circircumstances.

    The main concerns I have outstanding are that there should be no tariffs, we should have control over our own laws, the ability to make our own trade deals, control over the movement of people in and out of the UK and a sensible arrangement on financial services that enable us to continue our business much as we do now. A sensible trade and services deal would pretty well resolve the border issues, although there would still be a big implementation job for us to do.

    I am reasonably confident that we will achieve all of this. The benefits are for both sides, actually.

  • As long as after 2020, we can control our own borders, control our money and have full control of our laws, then history will judge that May would've done a good job, especially, as you say, if there are no tariffs.

    I think the next batch of negotiations with the EU about our future relationship with them is next month, so we should hear within the next six weeks, whether things are going okay or not.

  • I don't know why you say that

    With good reason May just seems a bit wishy-washy over Brexit, but that is to be expected from someone who is in the remain camp she is never going to fully commit, agreeing to pay the EU a bribe just to get them talking about us leaving, as for it being a negotiation all that seems to have happened is the EU have made demands of what they want and May has agreed with them, even the so called Brexiteers within the government seem happy to sit back and go with the flow not wanting to rock the gravy boat and draw attention to themselves no doubt, it all seems a bit lights are on but no one is home.

  • As long as after 2020, we can control our own borders, control our money and have full control of our laws, then history will judge that May would've done a good job, especially, as you say, if there are no tariffs.

    I think the next batch of negotiations with the EU about our future relationship with them is next month, so we should hear within the next six weeks, whether things are going okay or not.

    That's right, and Theresa May has not thrown in the towel on those important issues.

  • With good reason May just seems a bit wishy-washy over Brexit, but that is to be expected from someone who is in the remain camp she is never going to fully commit, agreeing to pay the EU a bribe just to get them talking about us leaving, as for it being a negotiation all that seems to have happened is the EU have made demands of what they want and May has agreed with them, even the so called Brexiteers within the government seem happy to sit back and go with the flow not wanting to rock the gravy boat and draw attention to themselves no doubt, it all seems a bit lights are on but no one is home.

    How so? We always said we'd pay what we owe the EU and they can go whistle if they want any more. We are committed to pay £40bn, not over £100bn.

    Theresa May has not given in over sovereignty, the right to set our own laws, the right to do our own trade deals (in fact we have now got agreement to negotiate these during the transitional period), the right to control immigration, etc.

    Considering the small majority she has in Parliament with politicians of her own party at each others throats over this, not to mention the hostility of the EU, I think she's done bloody well!

    Contrast this with Jeremy Corbyn, who is still advocating we stay within the customs union despite the implications for us to strike our own trade deals!

    Theresa May has not given anything away that is remotely important in terms of our overall goal. The transition period will pass.

  • Our future trade deal with them has to be agreed by October, so that each EU parliament can vote on the entire matter, so we'll definitely know by then how this has gone, but we should have clues next month, as I said when the negotiations continue.

    May has got to know that if she backs down to the EU on key things, specially border control and law, she'll probably be torn from limb to limb.

    I don't trust her, I don't like her, but we'll see how this plays out.

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