Does the UK face a No Deal Brexit?

  • Michel Barnier has said Theresa May's plan for a future trade relationship with the EU could weaken the single market and create burdens for business.

    The EU Brexit negotiator said the White Paper opened "the way to a constructive discussion" but must be "workable".

    He questioned whether UK plans for a common rulebook for goods and agri-foods were practical.

    The UK's new Brexit secretary says he is still persuading other cabinet ministers that the government strategy for leaving the EU is the "best plan."

    Dominic Raab told the Sunday Telegraph the prime minister's blueprint for leaving the EU was "pragmatic."

    Jacob Rees-Mogg has said Britain is heading for a no-deal exit from the EU, and that leaving on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms is now likely.

    Presenting a phone-in on LBC, the prominent Tory MP and hardline Brexiter said: “I think we are heading to WTO and I think WTO is nothing to be frightened of.

    “I think we should carry on negotiating until the end. I don’t think we necessarily need the theatrics of walking away, but the truth is that WTO is likely to be all that they will offer us.”

    DAVID DAVIS has urged the Prime Minister to tear up her Brexit White Paper and “start again” in an explosive interview in which he lays bare the inside story of Britain’s fraught negotiations with the EU.

    Reese-Mogg, along with other Brexiteers like IDS, appear to be supporting the PM for now. DD thinks there's still time to change tact. Some of May's cabinet like Leadsom are talking about quitting and as the first story I've linked to says, Barnier is not happy with May's plan.


    Where do we go from here?


    May's plan is already watered down, but Barnier is saying this common rule book is not in keeping with the rules of the single market, even though that is exactly what it is in all but name. DD, Boris still think there is hope for something better, but we are running out of time fast. Any deal must be ratified by all the parliaments of the EU before Brexit day, but there has to be a deal for them to agree to in the first place.


    Is the UK heading for a no-deal Brexit?

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  • Is the UK heading for a no-deal Brexit?

    I hope so. Starting from a no EU entanglements position is better for getting a trade arrangement IMHO plus we keep our £39bn for our own people.


    It also thwarts any future party from going back into the EU except on the worst possible terms.

    History is much like an Endless Waltz. The three beats of war, peace and revolution continue on forever.

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  • It's astonishing that after saying they didn't want May's government to collapse, the EU is taking such a hard line, considering they're pretty much getting everything their own way. But, then of course it's not surprising, their intransigence has been there from the beginning.

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  • I want a clean break from the EU because I don't trust our politicians not to agree to the UK being a vassal EU state.


    Seems much of the public agree:


    A YouGov survey for the Sunday Times found voters think the ex-Foreign Secretary would be best placed in talks with Brussels - and to lead the Tories into the next election.


    But in numbers that will shock No10, it also says that 38 per cent would vote for a new party on the right which was committed to Brexit, while almost a quarter would support a far-right anti-immigrant, anti-Islam party.

    And just one in nine voters support her plan, and just 12 per cent think it would be good for Britain.

    Most voters don't think it stays true to the referendum result either.

    History is much like an Endless Waltz. The three beats of war, peace and revolution continue on forever.

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  • Listening to LBC today and hearing such scare stories that i start to worry for some people , no wonder the anti depressants are in such use .Why can't any of them see the obvious flaw with the EU in as much as it just takes control of so much of our lives, why does'nt this concern any of them???

  • I would prefer a complete break with the EU, and so far, no deal is the only option that fits my preference. I'll take the short term pain in exchange for the long term gain.


    I loathe the way politicians ignore the electorate, as they have done for most of the previous 40+ years we have been in the Common Market/EU. The politicians have a free hand to make Brexit a success, or a failure. Too many politicians appear to want either to stop Brexit, or make it a failure, so they can say 'told you so'.


    Trust in politicians has been low for a long time. My hopes rose a little when they voted for A50. Is that little bit of remaining trust about to be totally destroyed?


    Slightly off topic, but has anyone read the latest revelations about how Major forced Maastricht through, despite lots of opposition. Mays tactics to push the Chequers deal through are almost identical. It's ironic that the EU itself may save us from Mays Chequers plan.

  • ... and it was a Reese-Mogg who tried to stop that too.


    At the time, I liked Major. Interesting how time and a little bit of facts, can change things..X/ We never should have gone into Maastricht, that was the treaty that created the EU proper.


    As for preferences, I would prefer the deal that DD laid out, which has been binned by May in favour of her alternate version.


    Make no mistake, a no deal would be catastrophic for the UK (and EU) and it's not something I would wish upon ourselves, but the way this is going, it looks like it could happen now.

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  • Make no mistake, a no deal would be catastrophic for the UK

    I simply don't subscribe to that outcome, that's remainer defeatist talk. We trade with most of the rest of the world under WTO rules so why should trading with the EU under the same rules be "disasterous"? Remember that the EU runs a surplus in trade with us, to not trade would cost them dear and anyway how would the EU tell the Germans not to sell us BMW's for example? Trade WILL continue whatever terms we leave the EU under because trade is at the behest of companies, not governments unless an embargo is enforced.


    On the other hand the EU loosing a net £10+billion from it's budget will put the cat amongst the pigeons, notably the Germans who'll be expected to dig even deeper in their pockets to support the likes of Greece and the Eastern European nations.


    EU trade is 40% of our international trade and is a falling proportion and worth less than 7% of our GDP.

    History is much like an Endless Waltz. The three beats of war, peace and revolution continue on forever.

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  • Make no mistake, a no deal would be catastrophic for the UK (and EU) and it's not something I would wish upon ourselves, but the way this is going, it looks like it could happen now.

    I don't agree with that statement. Why do you think the EU are so anxious to prevent us leaving and having full control over our economy? They have proven time and time again that EU citizens do not bear consideration. The EU and it's political agenda comes first, second and last.


    Most of our trade is done via WTO. The businesses exporting/importing via the EU get preferential treatment, but at the cost of the whole country giving up it's right to self determination and taxpayers money, of course. It is too high a price, and also creates an unlevel playing field in giving EU trade priority over non-EU trade. It's just the same with immigration. Non-EU immigrants have to prove that they can support themselves, and their family, without state aid.


    In normal business, given the trade deficit we have with the EU, the EU should be paying us, not expecting us to pay such a high price (in both monetary and social costs) to give them priority and control of our trade.


    As an aside ... it looks like Trump has won the day with a provisional agreement from Juncker to remove tariffs and non-tariff barriers on goods not related to vehicle manufacturing. The EU is starting to lose it's ill-gained power.

  • The only thing that is catastrophic is the Brexit planning from the announcement of the referendum , only complete morons would do nothing about planning for the possible outcomes , and guess what, we have a parliament full of them!

    I do not see why people are claiming no deal would be terrible, we have had an army of civil servants working on Brexit, why hasn't more been done about no deal , surely it is common sense.

  • Because, they don't won't to leave the EU, that is common sense to them


    Don't forget a deal is not just about trade, it covers a wide range of issues from security and defence, to science and the environment.


    I don't disagree with the points you all raise, but let me just pick up on this:


    Trade WILL continue whatever terms we leave the EU under because trade is at the behest of companies, not governments unless an embargo is enforced.

    No it won't and the passporting arrangements that our financial services currently enjoy under the EU will end, as the most obvious example that I can think of.


    Our "beloved" PM didn't even fight with the EU on that one and gave away our rights straight away to them. And this is important to our economy.

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  • Has she? I missed that one. I understood her Chequers plan excluded services from the agreement altogether.


    I wouldn't worry about it too much, either way. A satellite office in the EU will overcome most of the EU imposed problems, while the actual work is done in the UK. Likewise, the EU banks will be setting up offices in the UK.


    I am not worried in the slightest. The EU won't cut its budget. It will always have a need for more and more money, and that will come from taxpayers and business. Their greed for money, power and their expansionist agenda (where they give our money away to bribe new entrants), will eventually price themselves out of business.

  • Has she? I missed that one. I understood her Chequers plan excluded services from the agreement altogether.

    That's what I said, or thought I said. She didn't even negotiate this with the EU, just capitulated straight away to the EU on this.

    I wouldn't worry about it too much, either way. A satellite office in the EU will overcome most of the EU imposed problems, while the actual work is done in the UK. Likewise, the EU banks will be setting up offices in the UK.

    True, but a British bank must always operate through that subsidiary when dealing with the EU, thus increasing costs. By the way, the airlines have done exactly the same thing, set up subsidiary offices in EU countries in case we get frozen out of any open skies agreements.

    I am not worried in the slightest.

    I am. That doesn't change my view. I want out of the EU, but I don't want to crash out.

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  • Our "beloved" PM didn't even fight with the EU on that one and gave away our rights straight away to them. And this is important to our economy.


    That's what I said, or thought I said. She didn't even negotiate this with the EU, just capitulated straight away to the EU on this.

    I'm confused Horizon. If there is no agreement over services, how is that 'capitulating'? It means we can make our own rules and retain full control instead of dancing to the EU tune.

  • but I don't want to crash out.

    "Crash out" is a term devised by Project Fear 2.0 proponents to instill panic. It's a silly term for simply applying WTO rules when we leave.


    The only "crash" will be by those who have not adequately prepared in the vain hope that somehow Brexit won't happen and the can willl be kicked down the road for ever.

    History is much like an Endless Waltz. The three beats of war, peace and revolution continue on forever.

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  • In a negotiation Fidget, you're meant to negotiate. When this process started 18 months, we capitulated straight away:


    1. The EU said we must trigger article 50, then they'll start to negotiate with us. We capitulated on that point.

    2. Then they said negotiations must be stepped, ie talk about withdrawal first, then talk about the future agreement later on, even though the two things are closely intermingled. We capitulated on that.

    3. They, especially Merkel, made clear that as we're leaving the EU, we'll lose access to the single market. We capitulated on that.

    4. Then, the EU said that as we're leaving the single market, which we already capitulated on, we'll lose the all important passporting arrangements. The one thing we did not want to lose.


    From Day One, the EU has not only set the timetable, it's set the agenda too. Everything should've been up for negotiation. Preliminary discussions with the EU should've started right after our vote, but the EU refused to talk to us until article 50 was triggered, thus trapping us into a deadline and an agenda of not our making. It's a textbook case of how to destroy the opposition.


    Thank you Mrs May.:cursing::thumbdown: Rant over. It's hot.

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  • "Crash out" is a term devised by Project Fear 2.0 proponents to instill panic. It's a silly term for simply applying WTO rules when we leave.


    The only "crash" will be by those who have not adequately prepared in the vain hope that somehow Brexit won't happen and the can willl be kicked down the road for ever.

    I can think of a certain PM I would like to crash out.:)


    As we know, because the government has "helpfully" just made this blindly obvious to all, there has been no preparations to leave, because most of the politicians want to stay.


    If we had started to make serious arrangements for leaving the EU, thousands of customs and border force jobs would've been advertised by now. And if those ads had been placed, that would've made the front pages of the Mail and Sun.


    The Dutch started to employ more customs and border people last year.

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  • Theresa May could be given a 'last chance' to sell her Brexit plan directly to EU counterparts amid rising fears about deadlock in negotiations.

    A summit for leaders is being pencilled in for September as efforts are stepped up by both sides to avoid a damaging failure to get a deal.

    Germany is said to be increasingly alarmed at the intransigence of the European commission, with Jean-Claude Juncker and Michel Barnier flatly refusing to compromise. Last week Mr Barnier effectively took an axe to Mrs May's Chequers blueprint .

    May wants to present her weaker than water deal directly to EU leaders, but the EU commission isn't keen. I don't blame the EU here, they've got their way the whole time, so why not push the knife in further?


    Yet further evidence of a no deal possibility.

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  • "Crash out" is a term devised by Project Fear 2.0 proponents to instill panic. It's a silly term for simply applying WTO rules when we leave.


    The only "crash" will be by those who have not adequately prepared in the vain hope that somehow Brexit won't happen and the can willl be kicked down the road for ever.

    I agree, Heero.


    Most of our current trade is non-EU. The taxpayer has 'eased the way' via taxpayers money for businesses to trade via the EU, and this leads to EU trade being given priority, which suits the EU just fine. If there is no trade deal, the EU and UK will both lose this advantage, however, it leaves us free to get bespoke trade deals with other countries and this may well be frictionless trading as we currently have with the EU, but without the costs and the baggage that the EU imposes.


    If we leave with no deal, there will be no more difficulty with EU trade than there is with non-EU trade, and it gives us the freedom to set our own tariffs (if required), and where tariffs are imposed .... the UK will collect them AND KEEP THEM, instead of handing them over to the EU! That looks like a win to me. If our import businesses (and indirectly the UK consumers) consumers are paying tariffs (therefore making goods more costly) then it is obviously beneficial for the UK to keep those tariffs and use them for the benefit of everyone in the UK, instead of going into the EU bottomless pit.

  • Mr Barnier has thrown a spanner into Mrs May's works concerning VAT collection plans today , what a stunning surprise from the EU that they will not collect this tax on behalf of a third country , we have to get out , now.

  • Yep, just mentioned that in the customs thread. Spanner indeed, but not surprising.

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  • Finally getting their fingers pulled out.


    It's quite clear that the EU's only deal is to hobble the UK as a "Vassal state". The bad deal.

    History is much like an Endless Waltz. The three beats of war, peace and revolution continue on forever.

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  • Thanks for that link, Heero.


    Those papers should've been published last year, but as the EU knew our negotiators weren't really interested in leaving the EU, they've taken the stance that they did.

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  • According to Sky News last night, our new Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab, is to announce all the government measures this Thursday in case of a no deal.


    I really like him. He's a hard line Brexiteer, but what is he doing working for May though?


    Edit: Oops... that's exactly what Heero posted earlier.:whistling::)

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  • Macron backs No Deal campaign with interfering letter

    Mr Macron is supporting a plan led by the Tory MP George Freeman to create a new cross-party coalition of MPs who are opposed to a no-deal Brexit.

    Mr Freeman has claimed that there will be an economic meltdown if the UK withdraws from the EU without an agreement in March.

    The French leader has sent a letter of support to a political rally being hosted by Mr Freeman next month.

    Mr Macron has sent a letter to the Tory MP saying: “I would like to welcome your initiative and wish you all the best for the success of the new edition of this event.

    Ok, I know it's the Express and they're worse than the Mail with their various rants, but for a foreign head of state to interfere in our domestic politics like this and on such an important issue, is totally unacceptable.X(

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  • I don't know what Raab thinks of Johnson, so as you say, lets wait and see.


    Raab was essentially DD's number two and for ages, did the bulk of the work on the EU withdrawal bill before getting moved on by May off the Brexit remit, and now he's got it again.

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  • There is just one thing puzzling me about May's 'common rulebook'. Is the intention that this applies only to trade with the EU or will this have a wider impact?


    We cannot agree to this if it restricts our ability to trade with the rest of the world.


    However, if it just applies to EU trade, isn't this just like the kind of clause you would find in any trade deal?

  • ... Is the intention that this applies only to trade with the EU or will this have a wider impact?


    We cannot agree to this if it restricts our ability to trade with the rest of the world.


    However, if it just applies to EU trade, isn't this just like the kind of clause you would find in any trade deal?

    As far as I am aware, the EU rules will apply to every business, just as they do now. That is one of the bones of contention with the Chequers plan. It may not stop us getting trade deals, but it will certainly make them more difficult. Chequers guarantees us none of the Brexit 'bonuses'. Chequers is so vague that it could well be used to disguise free movement (just give it another name), payment to the EU (but it won't be called 'membership fees', and all the rest of the things we want to escape from.

  • Heard on the radio that today's "leak" is concerning our unilateral granting of EU citizens rights regardless of the rights our UK citizens get in the event of a no deal Brexit, if this is a taste of things to come , the political temperature will rise enormously!

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