New Chinese virus spreads

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  • There are so many interesting comments in this thread that it would be exhausting and duplicative to reply to each and every one. So for what’s it worth I’ve replied generically


    Living is an exercise in probability


    One FB member says he will need to “tolerate the second wave and get it all over and done with once and for all”. I’m not sure how cov can be defeated by tolerance. Maybe “get it all over and done with” is meant to suggest herd immunity which, let’s face it, means survival of the fittest.


    Could it be that is the long term thinking of the government, which is to tackling the link of obesity = diabetes2 = low-immunity? Hard to imagine British government having a vision that extends beyond the next election or indeed into next week.


    The implication of such a vision would be to shine a green light on herd immunity. Hopefully the downside of herd immunity won’t place too much pressure on the funeral industry. Good luck with getting the public to come to terms with risk, with the inescapable fact that staying alive means coming to terms with the necessity of judging probability in deciding what to do. Doing nothing is not an option. Even chickens cross the road without much motivation. For me it’s a revelation to discover how timid are the British public.


    What is the alternative? One FB member said “If everyone stayed at home for six weeks apart from getting food and dealing with medical things, there would be no second wave as the virus would've died out, with the caveat that the airports should've been completed closed too and port activity heavily restricted”. I love the caveat! How about the caveat of one person happening to catch the virus and unknowingly breathe on another? Here we are again, in Virus Groundhog Day.


    Has anyone played with the figures when R>1? Imagine a pinball machine where you are racking up the score as one infected ball hits an island, which expresses its score not just by lighting up but also emitting several infected balls. Each of these infected balls carry on playing dodgems into and around islands, releasing more infectible balls, more than compensating for those balls that rolled downhill and vanished from the board. That’s bad enough if it’s just one ball. Do you really think as long as there is just one pinball hanging around to play dodgems, that putting most of the first wave balls into lockdown is going to wipe out phase 2 mischief-making balls that didn’t lock down? And when several of these mischief-making pinballs are from BAME islands, which are known to discharge at twice the infection rate, it’s time to make sure your will is up to date.


    Sweden’s more relaxed or less-paranoid approach, taking probability in their stride, suggests they are willing to settle for herd immunity. Probably they are healthier. As for elderly “loved ones”, maybe Swedes adopt a matter-of-fact philosophical attitude to agedness and mortality, which either makes them rational, cold and heartless or makes us British soppy and sentimental. Sweden now has a rate of infection similar to the UK but it was a much easier ride, less fretful and far less damaging to their society and economy. Time will tell whether Sweden’s infection rate will become seriously higher than the UK’s, whereupon Britain can enjoy a sense of schadenfreude.

  • There are so many interesting comments in this thread that it would be exhausting and duplicative to reply to each and every one. So for what’s it worth I’ve replied generically


    Public guidance, rules, enforcement


    I read somewhere that Boris Johnson wants to build on the success of the coronavirus press briefings with a new format starting in October". Success? What I witnessed was:


    - The stilted stage-managed presentation style reeking of propaganda


    - The three stooges of the day offering a vast lexicon of vagaries and euphemisms to bludgeon the viewing public into a state of numbed acquiescent ignorance


    - The deflections evasions and obfuscations in response to any intelligent relevant probing question from the media


    - The vacuous big lie of "following the science" becoming a satirical gag-line


    - The Governments' mania for statistics, which analyses the problem to death


    - The briefings only made bearable Mutt Hancock's half hour, where such vacuous-ness, verbal ineptitude needed no alteration to be straight out of tv sketches such as "Not The Nine O'clock News" or "Spitting Images".


    I suppose after a while even nakedly ambitious fame-seekers become uncomfortable being exposed as puppets controlled by 10 Downing Street and either strain at the leash or fail to conceal the fabrication of it all. How clever of the Government to recognise that this was happening and that the solution to that is to have the whole "show" fronted by media news celebs, for whom adhering to a biased agenda predetermined from on high is like fish taking to water.


    God forbid the Government would even thinking about enforcement rather than just information and guidance. God forbid the Government would even dare think about trading off electionability which is almost 5 years away in favour of firm leadership.


    Democracy isn't just about accommodating voters' behaviour and attitudes, it's also about leading them. There must some civilised midpoint between Western democracy and China's totalitarianism.





  • I read that herd immunity would kick in at 60-80%, Horizon. This is the first I have heard about 90%. Do you know where that came from?


    As I said, and have stated repeatedly (it's on my signature!) the vulnerable should be protected.

    Pretty sure it was one of those government advisers we used to see on tv each day, but if I find a link, I'll post it.

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  • Surprise surprise, the NHS couldn’t cope. Why would we ever have thought they could? NHS patient satisfaction surveys show impressively high percentages. That’s partly because the dissatisfied patients have been cremated or buried before they could take part in the survey.

    You always have a very "unique" way of putting things and probably right on this point too.


    I'll get to some of your other points at a later date. By the way, you're a bit late on the clapping bit old bean, that's all ended now. (thank god)

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  • I have no concern about what other countries do , it is up to them. We just close our doors and stop any of their people coming here as New Zealand did

    It's a bit rich for a Brexiteer to worry about the world economy when they have opted for the UK to go it alone

    We either sit it out or we allow the virus to keep spreading when more and more people will die, we could have another Black Death episode when there will e nobody left to worry about

    I have no concern about what other countries do , it is up to them.

    Truly the Little Brit rather than the sophisticated Internationalist I always took you for


    It's a bit rich for a Brexiteer to worry about the world economy when they have opted for the UK to go it alone

    "Going it alone" is having a global outlook without unnecessary restriction and most certainly without being tied into a political-trading cartel


    We either sit it out .....

    Is this a sophisticated but secret medical term that describes a procedure tailor-made to survive CV?


    Or we allow the virus to keep spreading when more and more people will die

    You're wasted not being on Sage's statistical sub-committee. You grind it all down to the essence. Quite of what I'm not sure

    We could have another Black Death episode when there will be nobody left to worry about

    With BLM should we even be thinking that way?

    Looking on the bright side, when you say there will be nobody left to worry about" does that include you?

  • a bit late on the clapping bit, that's all ended now. (thank god)

    It's ended but the posters are still up!


    I read that many retail businesses have refused NHS staff "requests" for a discount.


    It's not easy wanting to be generous to people who expect and demand your generousity.


    Yet individually within the NHS there are thousands of incredibly nice exceptions

  • The second photo is blatant Brazil or somewhere with those two in the bikinis and cruise ship just offshore. It's not even the UK LOL

    We do have cruise ships off shore here, all the time

    Remember the fuss that George Osborn got involved in when there was a proposal to dredge Falmouth harbour so the ships could dock there

    If They Can Do It So Can I

  • It's clear that there are groups both ethnic and age related who think that the rules and advice regarding social distancing, group socializing, travel and face coverings should not apply to them. Hence an increase in Covid19 cases in the UK. Selfishness and self interest is increasing. There unfortunately is nothing society or government can do about that. IMHO this country will Never be free of China's gift of their virus to the world. Sections of the public can't be bothered thinking of anyone but themselves. Sad Really...

  • It's clear that there are groups both ethnic and age related who think that the rules and advice regarding social distancing, group socializing, travel and face coverings should not apply to them. Hence an increase in Covid19 cases in the UK. Selfishness and self interest is increasing. There unfortunately is nothing society or government can do about that. IMHO this country will Never be free of China's gift of their virus to the world. Sections of the public can't be bothered thinking of anyone but themselves. Sad Really...

    It is sad as you suggest

    Sadly though they have been encouraged by the government firstly by starting to ease the lockdown making people believe it was all over, and secondly by the likes of Cummings and Jenrick totally ignoring the rules and visiting their families

    When people are asked why they are not abiding by the social distance guidelines the answer is always "If they can do it then so can I"

    I fear that the current situation is leading to another total lockdown which may lead to civil unrest

    If They Can Do It So Can I

  • It is sad as you suggest

    Sadly though they have been encouraged by the government firstly by starting to ease the lockdown making people believe it was all over, and secondly by the likes of Cummings and Jenrick totally ignoring the rules and visiting their families

    When people are asked why they are not abiding by the social distance guidelines the answer is always "If they can do it then so can I"

    I fear that the current situation is leading to another total lockdown which may lead to civil unrest

    We really need to get a grip. If you think we can lock people up forever and throw away the keys, you are sadly mistaken.


    The virus will return as soon as you let people out again, whether it is after days or years of lockdown.


    We just have to face it.

    Protect the vulnerable and get back to work

  • We really need to get a grip. If you think we can lock people up forever and throw away the keys, you are sadly mistaken.


    The virus will return as soon as you let people out again, whether it is after days or years of lockdown.


    We just have to face it.

    You only have to look at the success of lockdown in stopping the spread of the virus. Businesses were able to continue trading by employers who introduced social distancing or working from home, shops who made similar arrangements also traded, people could use public transport whilst wearing masks and so on

    The stupid thing that happened was allowing pubs to open with the inevitable drunken behaviour which is not conducive to social behaviour, and Johnson not slapping down Cummings and Jenrick for flouting the rules

    Lockdown does not necessarily mean freezing the economy, just making it operate in a different way. The important thing is to keep people apart

    If They Can Do It So Can I

  • Herd immunity only works if 90% of the population gets exposed. My point is that with most of Britons being fat and at risk of severe complications from the virus, this can't be allowed to happen unless its decided that millions should die and many more millions suffer from organ failure and other serious complications.

    Most of the population are not at any significant risk. Because a person is a bit overweight or has diabetes will NOT land them in hospital. it just increases their chances of getting sicker. Look, it is very unlikely we will ever get an effective vaccine, for the sake of the economy we can't all be locked away indefinitely, so we need to protect the vulnerable, take reasonable care, and get on with things. Eventually the virus will burn it's self out. Of course, we will lose more people along the way, but with a population of 67m, I don't think it really matters .

    White lives matter

  • You only have to look at the success of lockdown in stopping the spread of the virus. Businesses were able to continue trading by employers who introduced social distancing or working from home, shops who made similar arrangements also traded, people could use public transport whilst wearing masks and so on

    The stupid thing that happened was allowing pubs to open with the inevitable drunken behaviour which is not conducive to social behaviour, and Johnson not slapping down Cummings and Jenrick for flouting the rules

    Lockdown does not necessarily mean freezing the economy, just making it operate in a different way. The important thing is to keep people apart

    It hasn't stopped the spread at all, it has slowed it down.


    The public will soon tire of all this lockdown disruption, and unless you are going to call in the army to keep people off the streets, any move towards the semi-permanent lockdown you advocate will be widely ignored, and therefore ineffective.

    Protect the vulnerable and get back to work

  • Your wasting your time with Bryan. I have the feeling he only ever leaves the house to go to the supermarket anyway, probably hasn't been in a pub for years, and has no interest or understanding in how the economy works. I have attempted to explain how many lives will be lost as a result of a suffering economy, but Bryan just can't grasp it. He genuinely believes that if we lock ourselves away the virus will just go away by it's self.


    may I suggest you go and bang your head on a wall, in the long term it may save you some time :)

    White lives matter

  • The Telegraph want me to pay to read Tory propaganda, no thanks :(:(

    But I get the drift from your synopsis

    Of course any death matters if it's unavoidable

    Normal NHS operation could and should have carried on as normal, nothing to do with capacity - Nightingale hospitals sprang up overnight but stood empty. Either virus patients could have gone in them to free up general ones or vice versa, it only takes a bit of organisation - something that this government lacks> They have followed Cummings guidance to their own peril

    If They Can Do It So Can I

  • The Telegraph want me to pay to read Tory propaganda, no thanks :(:(

    But I get the drift from your synopsis

    Of course any death matters if it's unavoidable

    Normal NHS operation could and should have carried on as normal, nothing to do with capacity - Nightingale hospitals sprang up overnight but stood empty. Either virus patients could have gone in them to free up general ones or vice versa, it only takes a bit of organisation - something that this government lacks> They have followed Cummings guidance to their own peril

    Tell that to the clueless NHS managers.


    Nowt to do with the government. You said it yourself - the Nightingale hospitals increased capacity to more than was needed. NHS managers couldn't otrganise a nosh up in a chip shop. The whole system needs a radical shake up.

    Protect the vulnerable and get back to work

  • Tell that to the clueless NHS managers.


    Nowt to do with the government. You said it yourself - the Nightingale hospitals increased capacity to more than was needed. NHS managers couldn't otrganise a nosh up in a chip shop. The whole system needs a radical shake up.

    Well the government of the day controls the NHS

    If They Can Do It So Can I

  • The Telegraph want me to pay to read Tory propaganda, no thanks :(:(

    But I get the drift from your synopsis

    Of course any death matters if it's unavoidable

    Normal NHS operation could and should have carried on as normal, nothing to do with capacity - Nightingale hospitals sprang up overnight but stood empty. Either virus patients could have gone in them to free up general ones or vice versa, it only takes a bit of organisation - something that this government lacks> They have followed Cummings guidance to their own peril

    I agreed with you until the end. The government are NOT responsible for everything. They fund the NHS, they don't run it. Other than treating COVID, the NHS came to a halt, and still have. Despite the fact there is no COVID in my area, it is still impossible to get an appointment. The doctors are getting a rise equivalent to five times that of inflation, but have spent four months with their feet up. Nice work if you can get it !

    White lives matter

  • Well the government of the day controls the NHS


    Well the government of the day controls the NHS

    Not really. The government sets the strategy, but they are not involved in the day to day.


    I have been consistent in my view on this, Bryan. When I drew your attention to the 'patients drinking out of vases' scandal at the Mid Staffs Hospital a while ago, I criticised the then Health Secretary Andy Burnham not for what happened at the hospital, but for trying to cover it up rather than doing something about it.


    It is not fair or appropriate to blame anyone for failings which are not their direct responsibility.

    Protect the vulnerable and get back to work

  • I criticised the then Health Secretary Andy Burnham not for what happened at the hospital, but for trying to cover it up rather than doing something about it.

    So how can you argue that the government isn't running the NHS

    The current boss of the NHS has upset Hancock, aka Cummings by failing to provide whatever was expected of him and rocked the Downing St boat

    So they are looking to get rid of him and changing the system

    If They Can Do It So Can I

  • So how can you argue that the government isn't running the NHS

    Because it's the NHS management that is responsible for the day to day decisions, running of hospitals, etc.


    I see in the newspapers today, the PM has taken up my suggestion that to avoid another lockdown, we should allow the virus circulate amongst the healthier population while protecting vulnerable groups.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/po…print-avoid-new-lockdown/


    "Boris Johnson has asked officials to prepare a suite of possible measures that could help avoid shutting down the economy for a second time, after he said that he wanted to avoid another lockdown.


    The options include a programme of "enhanced" or "differential" shielding, as part of which vulnerable people would be asked to remain at home while the rest of the population continued to move around freely. One proposal is for the shielded group to be allocated specific times of the week to have exclusive access to some services and shops."

    Protect the vulnerable and get back to work

  • This is occurring naturally

    Young people meeting in pubs, clubs, and street parties

    And the virus is spreading. Doh!!


    "Britain suffers 771 more Covid-19 cases and 74 deaths amid warnings the infection rate could be at 'tipping point' after 4.5million were put on lockdown"


    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/ne…n-rate-tipping-point.html

    Britain suffers 771 more Covid-19 cases and 74 deaths amid warnings the infection rate could be at 'tipping point' after 4.5million were put on lockdow

    Britain suffers 771 more Covid-19 cases and 74 deaths amid warnings the infection rate could be at 'tipping point' after 4.5million were put on lockdow

    If They Can Do It So Can I

  • So how can you argue that the government isn't running the NHS

    The current boss of the NHS has upset Hancock, aka Cummings by failing to provide whatever was expected of him and rocked the Downing St boat

    So they are looking to get rid of him and changing the system

    The NHS is run by highly paid senior executives and managers. It's their job to decide how best to control the Chinese Virus and to instruct their staff to achieve that aim. If the person in charge is not up to the job he/she should be replaced !!! . Parliament is not involved, except to instruct the nation to carry out preventative measures as advised by a team of Highly Paid Scientific "EXPERTS".

    It's clear that some people on this forum wrongly think that every minutiae decision is taken by the PM. That's not his job...

  • The NHS is run by highly paid senior executives and managers. It's their job to decide how best to control the Chinese Virus and to instruct their staff to achieve that aim. If the person in charge is not up to the job he/she should be replaced !!! . Parliament is not involved, except to instruct the nation to carry out preventative measures as advised by a team of Highly Paid Scientific "EXPERTS".

    It's clear that some people on this forum wrongly think that every minutiae decision is taken by the PM. That's not his job...

    It is the employees job to carry out the governments instruction

    If They Can Do It So Can I

  • It is the employees job to carry out the governments instruction

    It's how they do it that goes awry. Some people seem to have difficulty seeing the wood for the trees and appear to have little idea as to how to make things work.


    The budgetary waste in the NHS is one example. The government determine the funding levels and incompetent managers waste it instead of targeting that money and spending it wisely. They wouldn't last five minutes in the private sector.

    Protect the vulnerable and get back to work

  • It's how they do it that goes awry. Some people seem to have difficulty seeing the wood for the trees and appear to have little idea as to how to make things work.


    The budgetary waste in the NHS is one example. The government determine the funding levels and incompetent managers waste it instead of targeting that money and spending it wisely. They wouldn't last five minutes in the private sector.

    If this government carries on privatising they may have to

    If They Can Do It So Can I

  • So how can you argue that the government isn't running the NHS

    The current boss of the NHS has upset Hancock, aka Cummings by failing to provide whatever was expected of him and rocked the Downing St boat

    So they are looking to get rid of him and changing the system

    It's not how it works Bryan. I was a retailer, and if the toilet was dirty in one my of my branches, it wasn't the fault of the MD. The NHS supply the funding, and the NHS is run by certain trusts and senior executives. It is the senior executives who have decided to stop treating people, and NOT the decision of the government. The fact is our NHS is totally crap, and that's all I have to say at the moment

    White lives matter