Russian invasion of Ukraine

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    • Staff Notice

    Russia has warned Nato against sending any troops to help Ukraine, amid reports of a large Russian military build-up on its borders.

    Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia would take "additional measures" if Nato were to make such a move.

    Sporadic, low-level clashes continue in eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian troops and Russian-backed separatists.

    US forces in Europe are now on higher alert, citing "escalations of Russian aggression" in the area.

    If you thought a global pandemic was dangerous enough, think again.


    The Russians say that their forces amassing on Ukraine's border are just there for "exercises". Do we believe them? Of course not and besides, the Russians are moving tanks into Crimea and moving other military equipment into Eastern Ukraine. The Russians intend to continue what they started back in 2014, to take the whole country.


    Biden has already spoken to the Ukrainian president and offered "unwavering support".


    Are we about to go to war against Russia?

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    This is not looking good. It's difficult to tell whether Russia is testing US resolve or whether there is a plan to invade.


    Putin's popularity appears to be on the wane, and a war would suit him at this time to distract the attention of the population.

  • I can't see a war but remember this is a consequence of EU expansionism that threatens the Russian's influence of their neighbours.

    It's also the expansion of NATO and NATO bases aiming at Russia. It's interesting that some EU nations are now receiving vaccines from Russia and I've read this morning German ministers are talking about buying Russian vaccine; I can't help but think getting entangled with Russia won't do the EU, via NATO, any good, especially as it previously only damaged the EU's reputation regarding Ukraine; here's Nigel's take on it:


    Nigel Farage and Guy Verhofstadt clash over EU army to face Russia - YouTube

  • Russians have long memories and clearly remember the horrors the last time Germany expanded Europe to the east. Germany's recent EU expansion eastwards has probably rang alarm bells.. Russia's movement of troops is merely a warning to Germany's EU and Russia won't escalate it any further.

    The last thing any country needs is a war between Russia and the EU.

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    Sorry, but I disagree with those who think this is to with the EU or EU expansion, it isn't


    Firstly a bit of context, there have been some clashes in Eastern Ukraine over the last month between the Russian backed separatists and Ukrainians and as a result, the Ukrainians have moved their armed forces near to the area - don't forget it's their country so they can move their forces where they want. The Kremlin has called this a "provocation".


    Secondly, a few weeks ago Biden called Putin a animal. Since then all military contact between NATO and Russia has ended. Don't forget the Russians for a long time were invited as observers to NATO meetings.


    Thirdly and most importantly, Crimea has run out of water. When Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Ukraine damned the river which supplied the peninsula with water. Since then Russia has managed to supply water to the people there, but things have now reached a tipping point. Four thousand additional Russian troops have just been moved into Crimea with the obvious aim of breaking the Ukrainian dams.


    Russia has moved troops into Belarus on the Ukrainian border and also moved troops near Ukraine's eastern border. If the Russians attack Ukraine from the north, east south and west, then that will be a full on invasion.


    Look here for updates on Russian and American military movements in the area:


    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical


    And this was taken by a Russian civilian inside the Russian border with Ukraine:


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    This is not looking good. It's difficult to tell whether Russia is testing US resolve or whether there is a plan to invade.

    Both.

  • Russia probably has two intentions out of this act which, at the moment looks more like sabre rattling than a genuinely serious prelude to invasion full scale invasion. Firstly, it could be intended to intimidate Ukraine. Secondly, it could be an act of brinkmanship...... a warning to NATO not to allow Ukraine to join the North Atlantic Alliance.


    Russia might be willing to pick a fight with a solitary country like Ukraine, but if Ukraine were a NATO member that would be an entirely different proposition.


    Ukraine's relationship with NATO is, at this time, informal. There is no treaty obligation for the bloc to ally itself with Ukraine if Russia were to invade, although it's difficult to see the west not responding in some way. At this time, Putin doesn't know just what that response might be and so this could all be the sort of sabre rattling intended to draw the west out on how it would respond to an invasion if it were to happen.


    That, of course, is speculation.


    I think Horizon's assessment is the one most likely to be the more accurate of those posted so far.

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    Putin is a opportunist. If he can take Ukraine, he will. Georgia would be next.


    He took Crimea and got no military response from the West, he took Eastern Ukraine, he even shot down that Malaysian airline accidentally and thought there would be a massive military response from the West to that, but there wasn't. So, Putin thinks he can do what he wants.


    He's warned NATO to stay out of it, but if it came to a fight, a conventional one, NATO would win hands down against Russia. It's just are we, or should I say the Americans, as they are the ones with the firepower, are they ready to take on the Russians?


    If Putin does invade and gets no Western response, he would then look at the Baltics and take a pot shot at one of them and see what, if anything, would happen.

  • Russia isn't interested in an armed conflict. As I said earlier they won't escalate the situation any further.

    Putin is a clever cookie he knows where power is to be found in the future.


    Putin wrote a few years ago in 2017 :-


    Artificial intelligence is the future, not only for Russia but for all mankind ......

    Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the World..


    Russia is a leading country in Artificial intelligence, they have embraced all aspects of the internet and know how to manipulate and frustrate their enemies without firing a shot.

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    Russia is in debt. To move all those tanks and military equipment costs a lot of money and Russian business' are already complaining that they cannot move goods on the railways, because the military is using them.


    Either way, we'll know within a few weeks whether its exercises or not. Oh by the way, as part of this exercise, Russia is moving it's air defence missile systems into the border region too.... just in case the Americans do "exercises" as well.

  • You can't win a war online.... unless you're playing it on X-Box. If you could win a war by internet capability alone, why bother having an army or an air force at all...??


    The taking of territory requires boots on the ground.

  • Don't be surprised if some of the Balkans ran into Russia's arms. Much of the former USSR has become a wasteland since they left. Some have joined the EU but not found much benefit, that's why millions have migrated. For an education, put this in YouTube search and take your pick, it's informative and entertaining:


    bald and bankrupt

  • It will end up like Korea with peace talks and an imaginary border drawn up. This is another perfect example where the US have broken promises and got too close. Now they are on the doorstep and naturally it's unnerved the USSR who are going to defend their patch. Why can't the yanks just leave sleeping dogs lie instead of stirring the pot. Worse is that they endanger and bring everyone else down with them or get NATO to do their dirty work. What goes on between Russia and their neighbours is between them. There was plans for the US to pull their troops out of Germany but Biden has reversed that.

    Russia and I've read this morning German ministers are talking about buying Russian vaccine

    German submarines have Russian made navigational systems. No doubt there are some back doors put in place by the Russians. to give positions away.

    https://www.dw.com/en/german-s…hnology-report/a-57030819


    Russia are already at war with the West and they are doing it from the inside. Driving everyone crazy with fake news so we no longer know the truth. Information is being misled and implanted in peoples thoughts and it's not only driving us crazy 'literally' but it's causing internal divisions as a society. Then we have to look at the financial influence and all the property bought by Russians and also the Russians inside Western business, just look at football for example. Where do you think those Russians loyalty lays and where are they pumping their money. A Russian manager may come across all innocent...a business deal but there are darker issues at hand.


    Then there's Trump....Putin's middle man, property dealer so Trump can earn from Putin and fill his pockets. I'm sure Trump is not the only Western businessman involved with Putin either directly or indirectly. You also have to look at the Russian mafia and their influence in places like Italy and migrant movements across Europe. We are fighting ourselves from the inside and guess who has given us a helping hand.


    Mike is right and cyberwarfare is where it is at but old school weapons are at hand for anything physical and show of might if ever required. Even the piracy market is helping them and all the time western citizens are getting ripped off by western companies and no wages to match then we will turn more to piracy and other goods and there is sweet f all western governments can do about it unless they decide to scrap the Internet as a www. Have it internal only like in Korea, a wall that segregates countries from the rest of the world. And it's no good cutting the ties with Russia as things will pass through other countries the same way folk can take different flights to a different country to escape quarantine.


    I bet they have their fingers in the pockets of cheap ciggies from abroad too and fake goods with the help of the Chinese. We are shooting ourselves in the foot from the inside. That is Russia's war and we are making them rich while we are made skint by our own systems. You can't blame someone for wanting cheaper ciggies if our own country is a rip off. Nobody is going to care if it feeds Russian mafia via Albanians possibly, same as downloading movies, there's a lot of money to made from premium downloads. And how many times have you unknowingly bought fake goods on eBay or even Amazon. The fakes are so good know and how do you think Amazon get to sell them so cheap. They probably buy fakes without even realizing with much of the stuff and they have third party's selling through Amazon for a cut. Saying that the Chinese have a bigger hand in that but maybe there are Russian, Eastern European businessmen that can act as middlemen for a cut. Then there is the sex trade and people smuggling which also ties in with migrant movements. The Russian mafia have infiltrated Italy and probably working alongside the Italian mafia. Any Russian civilian can be a hacker and the Russian government will pay them for the goods. It's a way to earn a living over there. Identity fraud is the big one so passports can be made, bank accounts can be raided amongst many other things including getting nodes onto Putins botnet for DDoS attacks on western business being bribed, ransomware, spam, spreading memes with political influence and on it goes.


    So their is a war already on and has been for a long time. They are fighting from the inside and we are shooting ourselves in the foot. They are even influencing western politics and news headlines. Mix their shit up with the shit our own government and media feed us and it's a complete mess.

  • I disagree. The people of the Balkans will never "run into" to Russia's arms. They were occupied by the Russians for decades and have long memories of how they were treated.

    I think Russia is now a different proposition to the USSR days. That is not to say liberty is total but it's certainly different to what it was and in some respects the EU isn't the best example of total freedom in fact Bulgaria is looking decidedly iffy about remaining:


    EU on alert: Bulgaria could quit bloc as campaign erupts - 'We're worst at everything!' (msn.com)

    • Staff Notice

    It will end up like Korea with peace talks and an imaginary border drawn up. This is another perfect example where the US have broken promises and got too close. Now they are on the doorstep and naturally it's unnerved the USSR who are going to defend their patch. Why can't the yanks just leave sleeping dogs lie instead of stirring the pot. Worse is that they endanger and bring everyone else down with them or get NATO to do their dirty work. What goes on between Russia and their neighbours is between them. There was plans for the US to pull their troops out of Germany but Biden has reversed that.

    Either countries are independent, sovereign states or they're not. And I think you made a deliberate mistake there using the term USSR. That "country" finished a long time ago, do we really want that back??


    I understand the thinking as said earlier in this thread that Russia has influence over these countries, but countries can either choose their own paths or it's chosen for them.

    • Staff Notice

    The Kremlin accuses 'Ukrainian beasts' of executing a boy, 5, with a drone as tensions rise between the two countries and Russia moves troops and tanks to the border

    A boy aged five 'killed by a Kyiv drone' has become an alarming new flashpoint as tension spirals amid claims Russia is moving military hardware thousands of miles from Siberia to its border with Ukraine.

    Putin's propaganda machine is now creaking into gear making reasons why a attack on Ukraine is needed and also Putin's crack regiment that was involved in the original 2014 invasion is moving to Crimea.


    And the last time I checked, there was four Russian destroyers in The Channel.


    The pandemic will look like nothing if the West clashes with Russia over this and if we don't stop Putin now, it will only be worse later on.


    Not looking good at all.

  • That's nothing new the US and the UK have ships out there all the time on regular patrols often with Russian ships in the vicinity both spying on each other and playing games. The Russians do the same with their planes and helicopters as they do off the coast of the UK and get close but never cross that line. Both sides testing each others response times. Of course when they fly planes into UK airspace borders we have to send Typhoons up because they emit their location (IRS is it) whereas the Russians do not give their position away and considering the amount of commercial flights it becomes a safety issue. So the Typhoons act as a location beacon to notify commercial air traffic control. That is one of the main jobs of the QRA. It's air traffic control safety.


    There's a great video somewhere of a Russian helicopter flying past a Royal Navy ship with it's door wide open and a photographer with a camera taking photos of the RN while the RN are taking photographs back. Both within striking distance of each other.


    Old storeys but.....

    Moment Royal Navy warship buzzed by 17 Russian fighter jets in Black Sea is revealed as tensions with Ukraine explode

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/…r-jets-black-sea-ukraine/


    and....

    Gavin Williamson: UK ship in Ukraine 'sends message to Russia'

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46657470


    We probably currently have a Sub out there keeping an eye on things within striking distance of land. All it takes is an order to fire a cruise missile or two if needed.

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