Russian invasion of Ukraine

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  • Apparently Trump has been mouthing off about how this would not have happened on his watch and hate to say it but I believe him. Putin's speech was a scary threat. Basically he is saying to NATO not to get involved or he will nuke us. All these weapons including our Trident should have all been scrapped years ago. Geez I wish Gorby was still in power. I believe all we can do now is build up our defences around the the NATO countries surrounding the Ukraine to send a strong message that you can have the Ukraine but you don't go any further. The worry is, is Putin of sound enough mind not to start WW3.

  • Trump is as mad as Putin , Ukraine did have nuclear weapons but when it finally got its Independence from Russia back in 1994 the Americans and Russians talked them into surrendering them, they thought they no longer needed them as they would be protected by two Nuclear countries Russia and the Americans

    If they had kept them perhaps Putin would have not attacked them as they could have hit back hard if he invaded them, the Nuclear Weapons that the UK has which are limited are kept as a Deterrent to be used as a last resort should be attacked by the then USSR.

    IMHO that there has been peace in Europe since the end of WW2 a conventional war fought by men and machinesis because of the deterrent of Nuclear Weapons held by various nations that maybe be used as a last resort.

    The Americans used two Atomic Bombs on Japan to end WW2 to avoid losing even more of their troops and Japanese civilians who would have fought to the death if the Americans had landed on the Japanese main land, the Japanese Emperor to avoid that surrendered

    Hitler and the Japanese were very close to producing their own Atomic Weapon towards the end of WW2 if they had won the arms race Hitler a madman would have used them without hesitation, London Moscow and Washington would have been devastated

    We cannot surround the Ukraine to protect it as it has a long border with Russia, Nuclear Weapons far more powerful strangely enough have kept the peace in Europe for 70 years, at the moment Putin is waging war without Nuclear Weapons lets hope he does not go nuclear

  • Mutually assured destruction. That should be enough to deter the use of nuclear weapons. What is thereto gain if you end up destroying the world?

    Maybe our friendly aliens will come to our rescue!

  • Mutually assured destruction. That should be enough to deter the use of nuclear weapons. What is thereto gain if you end up destroying the world?

    Maybe our friendly aliens will come to our rescue!

    Yes it would end up in assured destruction of many nations,

  • The worst scenario is if you have two opposing world leaders who are mentally deranged either by murderous Madness or being severely Geriatric. We seem to have both at the moment in the US and Russia. I will leave others to determine which is which.

    The Voice of Reason

  • The old saying from years ago, when we fired the Germans ducked , when the Germans fired we ducked when the Yanks fired every bugger ducked

    Edited once, last by Fred (February 25, 2022 at 4:33 PM).

  • The old saying from years ago, when we fired the Germans ducked , when the Germans fired we ducked when the Yanks fired every bugger ducked

    That reminds me of the humorous tale of tanks during WW2. :-


    The British tanks fired shells and often hit the German tanks.

    The German tanks fired shells and often hit the British tanks.

    The Italian tanks only had one gear ---- Reverse.

    The French tanks didn't fire shells out of their gun--- they fired white flags.

    The American tanks had constantly revolving turrets - They sprayed shells and bullets at every army, Friend or Foe.

    :D :D :D

    The Voice of Reason

  • This is the problem with the media far to many opinions and not enough facts, we get fed this shit as though it is fact, only the gullible morons will believe it, but its like they say even a stopped clock gets it right twice a day, which is more than can be said for the media.

  • Trump is as mad as Putin , Ukraine did have nuclear weapons but when it finally got its Independence from Russia back in 1994 the Americans and Russians talked them into surrendering them, they thought they no longer needed them as they would be protected by two Nuclear countries Russia and the Americans

    The UK was a signatory to that agreement too. We guaranteed Ukraine's soverignity in return for them giving up their nuclear weapons. This is why we have to help them as much as possible without making the mad despot in Russia even madder than he already is.

  • Subscription needed, OB.

    Here it is, courtesy of the Telegraph..

    What is being fought in the cities of Ukraine is not just a war for that country’s freedom and future, it is a conflict that will determine Russia’s, too. Win, lose or draw, Putin has guaranteed that the Cold War – a war that arguably he never stopped fighting – is back. His regime will likely decay into isolation, economic stagnation and political repression as a result.

    While our intelligence services and the military analyst community were warning of an imminent, full-scale war in Ukraine, Western Putin-watchers and Russians alike had their doubts. It just seemed too dangerous, disproportionate and self-destructive. On Sunday, just before the fateful meeting of Russia’s Security Council that showed the world how isolated Putin was, and how out of touch, a Moscow-based financial analyst messaged me that he was “feeling more comfortable now – Putin’s about to pull off the biggest bluff in history”.

    It was not a bluff, though, and the ambition of Putin’s gamble is becoming clear. His stated objectives – Ukraine’s “demilitarisation and de-Nazification” – suggest his goal is to install a puppet government that will ensure the country remains within Russia’s sphere of influence.

    The obscene suggestion that modern Ukraine needs “de-Nazification” is not only a desperate rhetorical flourish to convince the Russian people that this is in some ways a parallel to the “Great Patriotic War” – the Second World War – but also a prelude to the mass arrests and, Western intelligence agencies claim, even executions of those who would resist.

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    Putin’s plan seems to rest on a naïve assumption that it is simply a matter of taking Kyiv and announcing a new government. In fact, that is the relatively easy part – any quisling administration will then need to be maintained by force against a Ukrainian population that shows no sign of being willing to accept it. Some will fight, something that is already clear as Ukraine’s government opens up its arsenals to distribute guns among volunteers. Even those not willing or able to fight, though, will resist in other ways, from sabotage to simple, mulish non-cooperation.

    As a British Ministry of Defence analyst put it to me: “This isn’t going to be Occupied France – it’ll be more like the partisan war Ukrainians fought against the Germans in the Second World War.”

    Hubris and paranoia

    That would be a galling parallel for the Kremlin, which has made a virtual secular state religion of the war. An equally instructive one would be the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Again, an ageing leadership in the Kremlin airily assumed that all it needed to do was take the capital and impose a new leader, make a brief show of force and withdraw, with the Afghans now cowed and obedient. Ten years and 15,000 Soviet deaths later, Moscow withdrew from a war it could not win. The generals had been well aware that the invasion would be a terrible and dangerous blunder, but the defence minister simply refused to convey his concerns to Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev. We do not know what Sergei Shoigu, the current Russian defence minister, has been telling Putin, but judging by that Security Council meeting, this is not a president who welcomes or listens to naysaying.

    More significantly, while the Afghan War did not bring down the Soviet system itself, it magnified a series of debilitating trends that did. The economy was already grinding towards collapse, but Western sanctions worsened it by denying access to credits and technology. The people were already disgruntled and cynical, but as boys started coming home with broken minds or bodies, or not coming home at all, their resentment towards the Kremlin only grew. It is hard to believe that Putin is seriously thinking of this parallel, but we should, because, either way, his Russia is heading in the same direction as Brezhnev’s, driven by the same combination of hubris and paranoia.

    If, unlikely as it seems, Putin is able to take and hold Ukraine, even if only for a while, it will prove a Pyrrhic victory. The prospect might be that a triumphalist Russia will have pushed closer to Nato, have resisted Western pressure and be ready to unleash covert chaos on Europe if it continues to challenge the Kremlin’s claim to a sphere of influence. In the process, though, Putin will simply have re-booted the Cold War only to find himself losing it. Ukraine will be a turbulent, truculent conquest, and he cannot expect this to re-legitimise his regime like Crimea. There will be continued casualties, and it will further galvanise the West. Putin has been able to make political gains in the past by his willingness to go beyond the bounds of what we could call the etiquette of the global system. However, on every index of power – military, economic, soft, technological – Russia lags behind the West.

    Nato has twice as many troops as Russia (even if it is still in the process of reorienting from distant counterinsurgency operations back to mechanised European war). As we are seeing in the unfolding sanctions, the West has a massive economic preponderance. We also have other capacities that we really have not yet tapped, from cyber to cultural conflict. In the Cold War, we were willing to conduct political warfare against the Soviets and often got very good at it – these are skills we can quickly re-learn, if we are forced and willing to do so. The West is a giant that, having gorged itself on the presumed “peace dividend” of the end of the Cold War, had settled down for a nap. It is beginning to awaken, thanks to Putin.

    Backed into a corner

    In this new Cold War, Putin’s Russia would have to cope with the three challenges of isolation, impoverishment and information. It would be treated as a pariah state, with all but a handful of partners of convenience. Of these, China would be the main one, but its relationship with Beijing would increasingly be that of client, not ally. Meanwhile, sanctions and a brain drain of the best and brightest would prevent Russia from dragging itself from its current economic stagnation. The current best-case scenario for its economy is that, by 2030, incomes are not any worse in real terms.

    Finally, given that even the Soviet state could not control the flow of information in the country, we should not expect today’s cynical and online Russians – they have the same level of internet use as in the UK, and many get their news from internet sources – to be any easier to dupe.

    Instead, Putin’s Russia would increasingly resemble the Soviet Union of the late Seventies and early Eighties, as an ageing elite presides over a country falling behind the rest of the world and a dissatisfied population is kept in line by police state methods. That led to the slow-motion car crash that Mikhail Gorbachev’s reforms actually accelerated.

    Of course, it seems much more likely that Putin’s gamble will wholly or partly fail. Perhaps he will end up holding on to the Donbas region, because it is hard to see how he could walk away from the war altogether without something to show for it. In any case, he can hardly walk this back. This is his war. As Emily Ferris at the defence think tank RUSI notes: “He can't step back… he can't leave the country in the state he has created, so all those discussions about succession plans for 2024 now seem defunct.”

    It seems hard to think of Putin re-inventing himself at the age of 69, after 20 years in power. That means no new ideas, no serious chances to improve relations with the West. Nor does it seem likely that Putin would now voluntarily leave the Kremlin, especially as constitutionally he can hang on until 2036. How can he leave office, when that would mean handing over his life, fate and fortune to someone else? Putin is not a man who trusts easily. How can he leave power, if not on a high? He is clearly consumed by thoughts of his legacy, and there must be the temptation to wait in the hope that an unexpected triumph is just around the corner. In other words, he has backed himself into a corner.

    And that’s a dangerous place to be. Some years back, a staffer from the Russian Presidential Administration recalled a story that Putin himself told about his childhood in the ruins of post-war Leningrad. He and his friends would hunt the rats plaguing their apartment building. Once, caught up in the chase of a particularly large one, he found he had backed it into a corner. It turned and leapt, and young Putin fled. The staffer’s conclusion was that Putin had learnt never to let people get into that situation: “You don’t chase, you take them out quickly.”

    It may well also be a cautionary tale for both his own people and the West. There is likely already disquiet among his senior officials, and especially among those now facing sanctions. It would take something catastrophic to make them act, though, given Putin’s control over the security apparatus and increasing intolerance of opposition. Likewise, there are limits as to how far into that corner we will want to push a man with nuclear weapons and a penchant for escalation.

    The tide is turning on Putin’s generation

    Realistically, just as in the last Cold War, our goal must be to contain, to undermine and to wait. Just as Russian troops and influence must be pushed out of Ukraine, Putin’s capacity to harm the West must be limited, which will require everything from more robust counterintelligence activity to reducing our dependence not just on Russian oil and gas but also other key resources such as titanium.

    Meanwhile, our old political warfare arsenal ought to be dusted off and updated for the information age. While some are talking of blanket visa bans and the like, instead let us make it easier for ordinary Russians to see what economically dynamic and politically free democracies are like. Let us make sure that truthful news continues to be available to undermine increasingly toxic state propaganda. Let us find new ways of throwing grit into the wheels of the defence-industrial complex, from cyberattacks to starving it of the best research. All of this will have its risks and costs, to be sure, but we have too long hoped to be able to guarantee security and stability in Europe on the cheap.

    And, finally, patience. Ultimately, it will be for the Russians to make their choices. Putin and his generation may stay in power for years to come, but the tide is against them. Younger Russians are increasingly open in their disdain for the gerontocracy in the Kremlin and what is being perpetrated in their name.

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    Even the 50- and 60-somethings who actually manage the country for Putin are becoming concerned. In the main, to be blunt, they are pragmatic kleptocrats, who appreciated the days when they could steal at home, bank and spend abroad. They want to be able to travel, to shop, to buy their property and send their children to university in the West. They are not going to become convinced democrats – but nor are they happy to see their comfortable lives disrupted by Putin’s messianic fantasies.

    There are still Russians, especially out in the countryside, who believe in Putin. But, even within the military and the security apparatus, discontent is becoming increasingly clear. One anonymous post on a social media channel used by army officers asked on Friday morning: “When is VVP [Putin] going to stop trying to f--- us all over? When is he going to go?” The ratio of negative to positive comments was six to one, before the moderators deleted it. Eliminating the sentiment is rather harder.

    Putin has guaranteed his regime’s demise. To be clear, it is likely to take years to die. After all, the Kremlin retains control of the security apparatus that has been beating and arresting the thousands of Russians protesting against this war. But it will be a hollow shell, without legitimacy and purpose, and Putin’s ambitions of carving out a place in history alongside other fabled state-builders as Peter the Great and, implicitly, Joseph Stalin, will be exposed as a sad delusion.

  • The UK was a signatory to that agreement too. We guaranteed Ukraine's soverignity in return for them giving up their nuclear weapons. This is why we have to help them as much as possible without making the mad despot in Russia even madder than he already is.

    I agree he is psychotic enough to push the button

  • I do hope the Russians Forces mutiny and refuse to prosecute Putin's War one never knows it could happen, according to media the Ukrainians have taken many Russian Soldiers prisoner, if that is correct to me anyway it is an indication not all of them want to fight , its a long shot but it might happen

  • Russian Minster has made a threat to Sweden and Finland if the join NATO ,

    Russia warns of ‘military consequences’ if Finland and Sweden join Nato
    Russia warns of ‘military consequences’ if Finland and Sweden join Nato
    www.msn.com

    Some Russian MP's have withdrawn their support for the War on the Ukrainians, more Russians are taking to the streets to protest against the war knowing the risk they take by protesting , I hope many more do the same

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