Will Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol get triggered?

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  • NI Protocol: Deal can be done, says Lord Frost
    However, the UK Brexit minister stresses that triggering Article 16 remains a legitimate option.
    www.bbc.co.uk


    The question of trade on the entire island of Ireland was always going to be difficult with having two countries under different juristictions, but we are now at crunch time.


    I don't think it's unfair to say that Boris threw Northern Ireland under the bus to get the main Brexit deal agreed with the EU (rightly or wrongly, at least that's what Cummings said) and push the NI question further down the road. Well, we're at the end of the road now.


    The EU has made concessions on NI, so a deal is doable, but the sticking point is the role of the ECJ, ie whether the court will still have a role in NI affairs when they don't for the rest of the UK now.


    Should Boris just accept that the ECJ will still be involved in NI to get the deal through, or should he stand firm risking the entire agreement with the EU?

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  • I don’t honestly think the government believed that Brussels would be so pedantic, bureaucratic and difficult about border requirements with Northern Ireland. Requiring each item of a consignment to have detailed paperwork instead of one set of paperwork covering all goods, for example, is pretty extreme and unnecessary.


    I think Lord Frost wants more time to get our exporters up to speed with these arduous requirements, and if the EU won’t give us that time, Article 16 will preserve the status quo within the terms of the EU deal while the matter is considered by the court, which should give us the time we need. At last, an advantage to us of the EU being so slow and bureaucratic!

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  • Ermm. The EU has always been red tape mad, but I think the unknown factor here is whether the EU has jumped onto the Irish government's bandwagon and is trying to force a united Ireland through sneaky means.

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  • Ermm. The EU has always been red tape mad, but I think the unknown factor here is whether the EU has jumped onto the Irish government's bandwagon and is trying to force a united Ireland through sneaky means.

    It is indeed red tape mad but I think the paperwork required here takes on a whole new dimension.


    A United Ireland will come soon enough. There will be more Catholics than Protestants within just a few years. And as the Catholics breed like rabbits, it won’t belong before that majority is significant enough to shift the balance.

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  • Its a tricky one.

    The UK has claimed it aims to be a low tax world trader like Singapore. The very thing the EU has been trying to stop within its state members (See Luxembourg and Switzerland)

    Yet here in the name of the NI peace agreement the UK want an open border governed lightly by principle rather than physical checks.


    When I first saw the fudge that was the agreement I assumed some sort of trade parity would continue. That the UK still wanted many of the things the EU nations did, I couldn't see any other way for it to work.

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  • The EU is punishing the UK by nastily attacking the decent people of Northern Ireland. N. Ireland is an intergral part of the UK and should be able to trade freely with the other countries of the UK.

    Southern Ireland is a foreign Country attached to the EU. The obvious place to set up customs checks is at the border between the EU and the UK.

    The EU should stay out of our domestic UK arrangements. If they want customs posts, by all means erect them on the North / South border. Stop all this interfering in matters which don't concern them just to punish the UK for leaving. ..

  • The EU commonly use the phrase "Maintain the integrity of the single Market" which is a euphemism for a protection racket which is defined by having different conditions applied according to which way goods are travelling.


    Will the UK trigger Article 16? Probably not because it won't be illegal to do so and therefore won't have the desired impact. It will make life more difficult not easier and the EU will be reluctant to negotiate. The way out of this is to negotiate from where we are with small changes and agreements made over a period of time, gently easing the situation into something better for us that the EU can live with without being arses like they are now.


    Of course it could just be the Irish Republic being deliberately difficult by over interpretation of the regulations, after all its not like the Irish Republic have been our best mates during Brexit and with Biden in the White House claiming he is Irish and obviously not a fan of the UK the Irish could be feeling they have the whip hand - stick it to the Brits, another nail in the UK coffin.

    Celebrate it, Anticipate it, Yesterday's faded, Nothing can change it, Life's what you make it

  • The EU is punishing the UK by nastily attacking the decent people of Northern Ireland. N. Ireland is an intergral part of the UK and should be able to trade freely with the other countries of the UK.

    Southern Ireland is a foreign Country attached to the EU. The obvious place to set up customs checks is at the border between the EU and the UK.

    The EU should stay out of our domestic UK arrangements. If they want customs posts, by all means erect them on the North / South border. Stop all this interfering in matters which don't concern them just to punish the UK for leaving. ..

    That is just passing the buck.

    I am the one in ten a number on a list

    I am the one in ten even though I don't exist

    Nobody Knows me though I'm always there

    A statistical reminder of a world that doesn't care

    I'm the murderer and the victim the license with the gun

    I'm a sad and bruised old lady in an ally in a slum

    I'm a middle aged businessman with chronic heart disease

    I'm another teenage suicide whose life ended at 13

  • The EU commonly use the phrase "Maintain the integrity of the single Market" which is a euphemism for a protection racket which is defined by having different conditions applied according to which way goods are travelling.

    A racket that was admired when Trump claimed it for America

    I am the one in ten a number on a list

    I am the one in ten even though I don't exist

    Nobody Knows me though I'm always there

    A statistical reminder of a world that doesn't care

    I'm the murderer and the victim the license with the gun

    I'm a sad and bruised old lady in an ally in a slum

    I'm a middle aged businessman with chronic heart disease

    I'm another teenage suicide whose life ended at 13

  • A racket that was admired when Trump claimed it for America

    The ex US President? Why do you mention him? Whatever he had put in place was removed by Executive Order on day one by Sleepy Joes handlers.


    I believe Trump had the US economy in pretty good shape before covid. He must have been doing something right. Seems a long time ago now. The US is a basket case now, really embarrassing for the normal American. I guess you have to understand what you are voting for before you vote not wait until after to find out.

    Celebrate it, Anticipate it, Yesterday's faded, Nothing can change it, Life's what you make it

  • The ex US President? Why do you mention him? Whatever he had put in place was removed by Executive Order on day one by Sleepy Joes handlers.

    I mentioned it because America blocking external suppliers and bringing jobs back to America is good, Britain bringing jobs and manufacturing back to Britain is good and yet the EU doing the same thing is bad.

    Double standards.

    I am the one in ten a number on a list

    I am the one in ten even though I don't exist

    Nobody Knows me though I'm always there

    A statistical reminder of a world that doesn't care

    I'm the murderer and the victim the license with the gun

    I'm a sad and bruised old lady in an ally in a slum

    I'm a middle aged businessman with chronic heart disease

    I'm another teenage suicide whose life ended at 13

  • I mentioned it because America blocking external suppliers and bringing jobs back to America is good, Britain bringing jobs and manufacturing back to Britain is good and yet the EU doing the same thing is bad.

    Double standards.

    Remind me. Who’s jobs are the EU bringing back? Or the UK for that matter? I thought the dispute was cross Irish border trade of goods as defined in the NI Agreement. Are you saying these trade issues are a by-product of another issue related to the location of labour?

    Celebrate it, Anticipate it, Yesterday's faded, Nothing can change it, Life's what you make it

  • Remind me. Who’s jobs are the EU bringing back? Or the UK for that matter? I thought the dispute was cross Irish border trade of goods as defined in the NI Agreement. Are you saying these trade issues are a by-product of another issue related to the location of labour?

    No. In your own words

    "The EU commonly use the phrase "Maintain the integrity of the single Market" which is a euphemism for a protection racket which is defined by having different conditions applied according to which way goods are travelling."

    America does this and its protecting Americans, UK do it and its about time . The EU do it and its a protection racket.

    I am the one in ten a number on a list

    I am the one in ten even though I don't exist

    Nobody Knows me though I'm always there

    A statistical reminder of a world that doesn't care

    I'm the murderer and the victim the license with the gun

    I'm a sad and bruised old lady in an ally in a slum

    I'm a middle aged businessman with chronic heart disease

    I'm another teenage suicide whose life ended at 13

  • I’m confused. Your response ignores your own analogy that I queried.

    You took it too literally. America is protecting American jobs by restricting imports from outside the country. The EU is just doing the same thing.

    They have for some years now been bringing in rules that stop various member states undercutting their neighbours within the bloc.

    Freedom of movement the thing that lead us to leave was part of this plan.

    In that particular case the idea was that new members, primarily Poland and Romania where living standards were lower would have to pay their workers similar wages to the rest of the member states or these workers would move to other member states.


    This protection within the bloc was of course extended to goods being produced outside the bloc.

    Now we have left and are outside the bloc we are subject to these restrictions (As anyone with an ounce of sense would have known would happen)

    The Good Friday agreement ensured an open border between NI and Ireland to stop the war.

    The agreement (Fudge) Boris came up with relied on the UK maintaining the same restrictions on imported goods and parity of working conditions. Then Boris announces we are not going to do that, so now the EU have a NI shaped hole in their defences where the UK can sell on cheaply made goods imported from outside the UK.

    So what do you suggest they do about this? No glib answers please.

    I am the one in ten a number on a list

    I am the one in ten even though I don't exist

    Nobody Knows me though I'm always there

    A statistical reminder of a world that doesn't care

    I'm the murderer and the victim the license with the gun

    I'm a sad and bruised old lady in an ally in a slum

    I'm a middle aged businessman with chronic heart disease

    I'm another teenage suicide whose life ended at 13

  • I agree with everything you said now you have taken the trouble to explain. In short I don’t have any answers because the optimal solution for the UK will obviously be unacceptable to the EU.


    There was always going to be a problem at the NI border so where we are is no surprise. The deal we have got Brexit over the line but it has this massive flaw.


    It will take delicate negotiations probably spread over significant time to gently nudge the red line issues slightly on both sides. Extreme actions will simply diminish the UK reputation in the wider world.


    Boris is a spent force now and I think we need fresh leadership with a detail focus to unpick and rebuild the outstanding problems with NI trade border. Using a football analogy Boris got the team promoted but is not the man for what the team has to face moving forward. We need someone who can be taken seriously and BJ is not that man (never was).


    Probably best to let the issue slide for a while. To me it seems to be getting heated which will end in big gesture knee jerk reactions that make matters worse.

    Celebrate it, Anticipate it, Yesterday's faded, Nothing can change it, Life's what you make it

  • You're right AS...... Boris is not the man for the job. He is too woke and weak. He is scared to take any real decisions to protect the UK. He is trying to turn the Conservative party into a lefty version.

    THe Conservatives need strong leadership. There are Conservatives who could be great leaders but they are being held back by Boris.

  • Yep we agree here. Long term I think there will need to be new trade agreements on a more item by item basis, that way many of the local goods produced in NI that could cause issues for the Good Friday agreement could continue as always and only ones securing ingredients/parts from outside the UK would need the extensive paperwork.

    But both sides are looking for obstacles at the moment and Boris being a populist wants to look good to the Brexiters who still want to stick it to the EU.

    I am the one in ten a number on a list

    I am the one in ten even though I don't exist

    Nobody Knows me though I'm always there

    A statistical reminder of a world that doesn't care

    I'm the murderer and the victim the license with the gun

    I'm a sad and bruised old lady in an ally in a slum

    I'm a middle aged businessman with chronic heart disease

    I'm another teenage suicide whose life ended at 13

  • Yep we agree here. Long term I think there will need to be new trade agreements on a more item by item basis, that way many of the local goods produced in NI that could cause issues for the Good Friday agreement could continue as always and only ones securing ingredients/parts from outside the UK would need the extensive paperwork.

    But both sides are looking for obstacles at the moment and Boris being a populist wants to look good to the Brexiters who still want to stick it to the EU.

    FYI…I am a Brexiteer but Boris is NOT the man. He is a buffoon and needs to be removed.


    I see Brexit as a long term project to rebuild all the home grown industrial capacity and manufacturing strength as well as stopping free movement which was essential. I think we will need 10 years minimum to see the benefits freedom from EU dictums brings. A lot of that time will be spent simply ironing out the residual issues from the initial Brexit deal like the NI problem.

    Celebrate it, Anticipate it, Yesterday's faded, Nothing can change it, Life's what you make it

  • I see Brexit as a long term project to rebuild all the home grown industrial capacity and manufacturing strength as well as stopping free movement which was essential. I think we will need 10 years minimum to see the benefits freedom from EU dictums brings. A lot of that time will be spent simply ironing out the residual issues from the initial Brexit deal like the NI problem.

    We agree on FoM. I understand its reasons, but it didn't work as planned. Especially for the UK that got more than its fair share of low educated Poles because everyone speaks English.

    That said few people know Cameron was offered a 4 year exemption by the EU to give us time to adjust our rules to make us less of a destination.

    I am the one in ten a number on a list

    I am the one in ten even though I don't exist

    Nobody Knows me though I'm always there

    A statistical reminder of a world that doesn't care

    I'm the murderer and the victim the license with the gun

    I'm a sad and bruised old lady in an ally in a slum

    I'm a middle aged businessman with chronic heart disease

    I'm another teenage suicide whose life ended at 13

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