I certainly do see that there will be a steep rise in AVOD options in the future, which will grab the viewers who are not willing to part with their money for pay tv. However, I don’t believe that this is a great threat to SVOD services, which will continue to expand once this cost of living crisis is behind us. AVOD will be serving customers that SVOD cannot reach.
I think this will have to happen well before the 2035 date, by which time I believe the existing free broadcasting channels will be coming to an end.
This report indicates that AVOD is doing well in the US. I suspect that we will see the same trend emerging over here, fuelled by the cost of living crisis, which is bound to affect SVOD. Having said that, I won't be giving up on any of my subscriptions as I cannot abide wasting my time watching advertisements.
I think the key to retaining as much interest as possible in SVOD is to offer more originals than would appear on the AVOD option, which is how ITVX will operate when it launches.